Balta1701

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Sep 14, 2010 -> 11:31 AM) Mark Sanchez is terrible. I really don't believe that. I think they have him right now coached to be in a box; to do everything to not lose a game but to do nothing that will help win a game.

QUOTE (11and1 @ Sep 14, 2010 -> 12:36 PM) I don't see why this is in any way "unfortunate" for me, since being "simply wrong" on this board is utterly irrelevant in the larger context of my life. If being "right" is meaningful to you, congratulations. I didn't realize that the conversations here were a zero sum game. I would rephrase my speculation from "fastball" to the more debatable "better pitches to hit", but I'm sure there is, as they say, "a stat for that". Please feel free to shoot holes in the specifics. The overall point, which still seems logical to me, is that the ever-more-tiresome Jim Thome, as with most hitters, performs better surrounded by a better lineup up offering more protection. Again, feel free to feel more fortunate than me when you find the stat that proves you to be simply "right". I certainly won't be losing any sleep over it. You may not have liked the way I phrased it...but let me be as clear as I can as to why I came off harshly. You posited a theory. You posited a theory which is based on specific data; that Thome is hitting better this season because he's seeing more fastballs. The problem is...there is plenty of data out there to check on your theory...and you didn't take the time to do it; you left it to other people. That, IMO, is why I went after your post; you didn't take the time to investigate whether the data you needed to back up your case existed. I'm going to disagree with you, like DA, on the concept that Thome is a better hitter in Minny because of the quality of hitters around him. My theory is that he's a flat out better hitter when you give him more rest. I can back this up; for example, his numbers have fallen in the 2nd half every year since 2006 except this year, where his at bats were limited in the first half. I offered a little bit of data to back mine up; you're just throwing things out there and saying "why doesn't someone go prove them wrong". If you want to make the case that Thome has had better protection this year...please do so, I'd be interested to read it, but don't just ask me to make it for you.

QUOTE (knightni @ Sep 14, 2010 -> 10:35 AM) If that's true, then he should take the option and ask for a midseason trade. The other thing he can do...if he can stay healthy...play out the season in Wrigley. It's still one of the best hitters parks in the game unless the wind blows hard in the whole season. It's going to pad a lot of his stats.

QUOTE (knightni @ Sep 14, 2010 -> 10:32 AM) At Aramis' age, he needs to grab that last giant contract of his career. I can see why he's considering free agency. The Cubs are going nowhere fast. The thing is...I bet that the only team that'd be genuinely willing to give him a big enough long-term deal to make it worth opting out of $15 mil next year is the Cubs. And I'm not sure they're not going to be in payroll cutting mode now that the new ownership has the books. I know I wouldn't want the Sox giving him 3/$40.

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QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Sep 14, 2010 -> 10:19 AM) They knew Ray Lewis was lurking in the middle of the field. Every checkdown Sanchez made to LT was stopped 2 yards short because he was there pretty much every time. And that hit he put on Dustin Keller, dear lord I could feel that on my couch. Actually...I meant the Jets defense/Ravens offense. My fault, wasn't clear. The Ravens offense torched the Jets on 3rd down.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Sep 14, 2010 -> 10:17 AM) That would fix part of the problem, no doubt. But many other things need addressing. Well obviously. Finreg (may) have gotten some of them if the Consumer protection Agency winds up having some teeth. The thing I like about capital requirements is...they're idiot-proof, if applied correctly. Even if you wind up taking large bets on something like the idea that housing prices never decline like all these banks did, if you're sitting on an actual large cash reserve, that has grown larger as the bubble has grown, you're not going to require a hundred billion dollar bailout to keep you from taking everyone else down when things pop. If the requirements are imposed in such a way that they're not easily gamed...then legitimately, that gets the world out of the crisis economics game.

I still can't figure out how the Jets did so well on first and 2nd down and then were so incredibly inept on 3rd and long.

I can run off lots of details about the Gatlinburg area because I'm heading there in a couple weeks. What would you be interested in doing?

QUOTE (knightni @ Sep 14, 2010 -> 09:56 AM) No one is worth more than 25 mil a season. Does not mean he couldn't get it.

QUOTE (knightni @ Sep 14, 2010 -> 09:39 AM) So, you're saying then that people who get into politics should understand that they are required to be corrupt in order to do their jobs? If it's a requirement, then why should anyone care or be surprised when a politician gets caught being dishonest? Well, they should care because it's their money, at some level, people are being dishonest with. But the other response is...seriously, people are surprised when a politician is dishonest or corrupt? Exploitation of being in power goes back so far in history it's hard to believe. We actually probably do a better job of keeping politicians honest than a lot of civilizations, because we have a law enforcement apparatus that is at least partially independent of the legislative branch and therefore we enforce some level of anti-corruption laws...but really, I can't believe people are surprised by that. I'm surprised somewhat at who it is who gets caught, or that it involves a Minnesota airport men's room or something like that, but not that it happens in the first place.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Sep 14, 2010 -> 09:31 AM) Teams need to stop giving up on Thomas Jones, though. Yeah...that was such a "it worked great for the 2007 Bears" decision. I was actually surprised at how good LT looked against that defense, but the Jets had absolutely nothing through the air. The announcers were correctly screaming at the Sanchize towards the end of the game to stop looking automatically for the checkdown. The Jets passing game was flat out too conservative to win that game.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Sep 13, 2010 -> 09:40 PM) Increasing pegged colateral requirements is certainly a good step, but its not going to fix the world. I didn't say "Fix", I said "Save". Prior to the 2008 crisis, the capital requirements for these banks by international accord was something like 2-2.5% Tier 1 funds, and those were enforced very leniently, such that if you got a ratings agency to package something as AAA, then you could count it as Tier 1. So, all those junk CDO's and Mortgage backed securities counted as useful capitol. That means they could leverage 30-40 to 1 and it was totally fine. If these rules are enforced, no small bank can get to that level, and large banks are held to even tighter standards...and if they want to begin over-leveraging again, then they have to curtail executive pay to do it. If AIG, Lehman, and Bear had to conform to these requirements, and they were enforced...I bet all 3 of them still exist, and we don't have a financial crisis in the first place. It won't fix the world...but it might well be exactly what we need to prevent the next one. We didn't get the kind of real capital requirements in the Finreg package that could have made a difference, but I think that ones that could are sitting right there in that table.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 14, 2010 -> 09:05 AM) You also have to consider who would replace Thome in the Twins lineup. Of course that player wouldn't put up the same numbers as Jim, but he still could be worth at least 1 win, if not more, you just don't know that. Hence the concept of "Wins above replacement" where a replacement player = the average production at that position for the league. It's therefore a 50/50 chance whether the Twins would get better or worse production if they just plugged anyone in at that position. Hell, look how some of the AL contenders have struggled with their DH slot by just throwing anything and everything at it. The Rays and the White Sox are the examples there.

QUOTE (11and1 @ Sep 14, 2010 -> 02:54 AM) Thome is seeing far more fastballs this year because he's in the middle of a lineup that hits for power and average. Unfortunately for you...thanks to the availability of Pitch F/X data, this unsupported contention can now actually be checked, because PFX categorizes pitch types. Last year, in 2009, Jim Thome Saw the 4 seam fastball 52% of the time. This year, in 2010, Jim Thome has seen the 4 seam fastball 39.5% of the time. In both cases we're talking about well over a thousand pitches, so this is a very statistically significant difference. Jim Thome is seeing vastly fewer fastballs this year. Therefore, your contention that Thome is performing better because of the lineup around him causing him to see more fastballs is simply wrong.

QUOTE (knightni @ Sep 14, 2010 -> 08:16 AM) If they don't offer him something like a 6 year - $150 mil deal in the offseason, they'll regret it. If I were albert...I wouldn't sign that. I'd wait til the next offseason and try to double that. As long as I don't suffer a career ending injury, I probably will.

Lotsa playoff/NL east injury news came through last night after I left. Jimmy Rollins has a hamstring strain. Day to day. John Johnson (Marlins) is being shut down for the season with a back strain.

I think I'm just going to leave this here and ask if this is the chart that will save the world.

QUOTE (CWSOX45 @ Sep 13, 2010 -> 06:23 PM) The Twins have been the same team they have been for the past decade, regardless of who is on that roster they play the game the right way. They execute in critical situations, they do the little things like driving a man in on 3rd with less than 2 outs. (Something we have really struggled with in the past and present.) They get bunts down, they don't run themselves out of innings, and most importantly each and every hitter has a plan when they step up to the plate. They also play sound defense, they don't beat themselves. You have to beat them. Rather than go after the full post...I'm taking the easiest bit of data to check. Batting average and OPS with RISP and 2 outs in 2010: Texas: .295/.818. Chicago Sox: .279/.808. Minnesota Twins: .273/.799. The White Sox did a fine job with 2 outs and RISP this year. Better than the Twins so far. Certainly not substantially worse. The White Sox, however, have fewer chances with 2 outs and RISP than the Twins. That could, of course, relate to the fact that the twins have a .344 team OBP, while the White Sox have a .332 team OBP. The Twins also have a higher OBP with 2 outs and RISP. Therefore...a much more relevant stat is overall the fact that the Twins simply put more guys on base than the White Sox. Worth noting as well is that the White Sox are #2 in the AL in Sacrifice bunts (behind Texas) while the Twins are #8 and well into the back part of the league. Getting the bunt down has less to do with this than any of your other points. Your point on them not running themselves out of innings though...H. Christ I just looked at this. The White Sox have 71 caught stealings on the year. The Twins have 26. Something tells me that's a big part of the reason why the Twins have more runs with 2 outs than us.

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QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Sep 13, 2010 -> 02:11 PM) I still believe the Sox had hopes Dye would have changed his mind. Money always seems to change a player's mind. Not so with Dye so I have to give him a thumbs up for walking away from the game and being content with his accomplishments. Not Brett Favre there. You do realize that JD has not submitted his retirement papers to the league and has said that he may attempt a comeback next year, right?

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Sep 13, 2010 -> 03:24 PM) anyhow, don't want him anywhere near the Sox I might be willing to consider a minor league deal with an invitation to ST for him...but only as option like 3/4 if others fail.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Sep 13, 2010 -> 03:15 PM) Ankiel was playing for the Royals Triple A team for god sake So was Alex Gordon. Anyway...that doesn't really tell you anything...he was playing there mostly on a rehab stint, and he performed well enough there that it got him a callup and eventually helped interest the Braves in a trade.

CC Sabathia versus David Price tonight to start a 3 game series in Tampa, with the Yankees 1/2 game ahead of the Rays. Really, you can't do it better than just reading that.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 13, 2010 -> 02:51 PM) If Ankiel could stay healthy, would he be the cheap answer for DH? You're basically counting on a big comeback from a guy who might well no longer be on the magic juice. Thanks to 4 HR in his first 90 at bats, he was slightly above average with the Royals, and he's been well below average since heading to the Braves. He's never gotten more than 450 PA's in a season. His combined OPS over the last 2 years is .681. He'll be 31 years old next year. That's a "scraping the bottom of the barrel" kind of move to me. If you want to keep Jones and make them a full time platoon DH situation...it might be plausible...but there's a real solid chance that he doesn't give you any more than Kotsay over a full season.