Balta1701

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 04:11 PM) 2014 included. Top 10 but not top 5.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 04:04 PM) Question for all of the prospect experts here... If Erik Johnson were still up for rookie status, where would he rate in the White Sox system rankings? What would his 2014 numbers look like in this hypothetical?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 03:42 PM) I admit it, if I am close to the action, I still bring my glove to games. Ditto.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 03:33 PM) Regarding futility of Robin ... until there's an obvious choice to replace him maybe the Sox should keep him another year. I mean does anybody really want a replacement of Dave Martinez, Alomar, Buddy Bell? These are the 3 we'd probably get as our leading candidates. I'd take Gardy right now but the Sox really don't have any good options out there. If Robin gets canned I'd be OK with a one-year deal for Ripken or Thome or somebody like that waiting until somebody good gets fired and emerges. I know you guys get mad at me for suggesting oldies, but what about Leyland for a one-year deal or LaRussa for one year or even Lasorda one year? You left out Jim Thome, who I think will get the job whenever they do move on from Robin unless Robin is here so long that Konerko wants it.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 03:25 PM) As an addendum to this horrible story ... five dead in Chicago shootings on Wednesday morning. Geezus Chicago is a fricking warzone. What is going on? It sounds like it is a true warzone in Chicago. Government officials should be ashamed it's come to this. Does Chicago finally lead the world in killings per month? Per year? http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/b...0902-story.html Chicago isn't even close to the top 50. Caracas in Venezuela has a homicide rate over 5x that of Chicago and 8x as many homicides total. That list also excludes the middle east and current war zones.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Sep 2, 2015 -> 12:51 PM) In one area All I heard was that they believe they're no longer in the area and possibly out of state, was there anything else on this today?

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 08:10 PM) Scott Merkin ‏@scottmerkin 13m13 minutes ago Minneapolis, MN Hahn: "The approach we’ve had for the last several weeks or months in the front office has been to be extremely open minded ... Scott Merkin ‏@scottmerkin 13m13 minutes ago Minneapolis, MN Hahn: "There’s no sacred cows. Everything is on the table and we are looking at everything." "We've been extremely open minded. Everything is on the table and we're looking at everything." (Makes no moves at trade deadline or even on waiver wire).

I can't tell exactly what's happened with him, but he's only got 60 games in the minor leagues this year. Was he injured again? Or was he on the bench behind Bryant in the bigs and never playing?

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 06:30 PM) Keep Thompson's at bats down this year so he can qualify for a run in 2016 as Rookie of the Year, What baseball logic dictates he must play every game closing out 2015? That's a terrible reason to not play him.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 06:32 PM) I think the point is you don't have as good of a grasp on the Sox's financial situation as you think you do. None of us know what their financial forecasts are. You can't just look at last year's P&L and assume the same exact performance the following year. New revenue streams may become available, price increases or cost savings could impact the bottom line. There are numerous things that could impact payroll that you have no access to. And for love of God, please stop taking what Reinsdorf, KW, or Hahn say about our financial situation as gospel. These guys have no absolutely reason to be honest about this with fans. They are much better off keeping the competition in the dark. At the same time though...things can also be worse. They had legit success in ticket sales this year, that's obvious from the attendance numbers and that's one thing I totally missed as well. Do you think they can sustain that next year? If they could sustain their season ticket numbers this year then I'd be much more willing to agree that they probably have room for a big addition. I'm obviously more skeptical about that given the team's performance this year.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 06:07 PM) Shyrocks, thanks for finding this. I argued with Balta all last season about our potential 2015 payroll and he was convinced $100M would be our cap, despite the additional national TV revenue. Glad to see him finally held accountable for those statements. You were right that they had an extra $18 million to work with and I was right about why you shouldn't spend it on this roster. Fair?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 04:57 PM) Montas likely yes, but Johnson likely gets some starts. any "TBD"s in the scheduled starters in the next week?

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 05:05 PM) That's because you put a hedge in everything you say. It's fine, I do the exact same thing. But I also pasted the entirety of the posts to avoid taking anything out of context, and like I said before, the tone is very evident. All those posts were around the same part of the season during which you're now doing it again. How about instead of analyzing ledgers we all just acknowledge that aside from the impossibility of the Sox spending $200+ million, we don't know what they're gonna do? My overall summary is that if people are going to talk about whether we're going to trade a $10 million player at the waiver wire to clear salary and whether we're going to make an offer to corner OF's likely to get $20 million/season or more, its equally fair to ask where we're going to get the funds and whether it would be a good idea.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 04:56 PM) I am surprised no one has said this yet, but this article was embarrassingly devoid of any substance at all. It was a mix of innuendo and insults, with no corroborating evidence or information. It reads like a fan wrote it. Holmes should be embarrassed to have his name attached to that steaming pile of garbage. I read it and wondered why you'd posted it.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 04:51 PM) This is the result of a quick search of your name and the word "payroll." If I kept going, I am quite sure I would find many more of your posts with an adamant tone that the Sox wouldn't push payroll above roughly $90-$100 million. You were not shy about it. A couple of those you've got me, but you also are pretty selective in what you bolded. For example, referring to $100 million, you bolded the line right next to this one but ignored this:

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 04:45 PM) Hilarious that LaRoche is getting at bats. 1. Trayce has strong position splits against lefties, and being a little careful with him is not a bad thing. 2. Adam LaRoche is still under contract for $13 million by the White Sox next year. Like it or not, Adam LaRoche is going to be on the Chicago White Sox in 2016 starting a lot of time at DH and 1b. 3. Adam LaRoche has had some hits lately, with a .930 OPS over his last 7 starts. 4. There is a righty on the mound. If you can get Adam LaRoche's confidence up and help him have a good last month, that at least improves your chances of getting something useful out of him for $13 million in 2016. When there is a righty starter on the mound, Adam LaRoche should be in the lineup, at least until the White Sox are ready to eat his contract.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 04:14 PM) Weren't you saying last year the payroll would be $100 million at best? Just remember JR's quote during the infamous "all in" press conference where everyone assumed AJ gone, Pauly gone, no one signed. Dunn signed, AJ back, Pauly back. JR's response to reporters who asked how he could afford it, "You save a little here, a little there". They supposedly are one of the most profitable teams in baseball, and the owners supposedly haven't been taking anything out. They have plenty of money. I managed to track down my manifesto in the VMart thread last year outlining how I couldn't figure out any way to fill the number of holes on this roster at either $100 million or at $120 million because they would wind up counting on guys like Flowers, Noesi, Gillaspie, Danks, Garcia, and Sanchez. About the only things I think look poor in hindsight from that post is having too much confidence in Noesi despite offering a ton of caveats and failing to account for the fact that some of our FA signings would screw up and leave us well below 80 wins. I think that's basically the game I played last offseason - if you're going to spend $120 million, which is what I thought was close to our max, then you still need to make a big deal trading Anderson and Montas and everyone else to really bring in a major contributor because the FA spending wouldn't be enough. And I think hindsight has worked pretty good on this.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 04:14 PM) Weren't you saying last year the payroll would be $100 million at best? Just remember JR's quote during the infamous "all in" press conference where everyone assumed AJ gone, Pauly gone, no one signed. Dunn signed, AJ back, Pauly back. JR's response to reporters who asked how he could afford it, "You save a little here, a little there". They supposedly are one of the most profitable teams in baseball, and the owners supposedly haven't been taking anything out. They have plenty of money. Given that the $25 mil in new TV money starting in 2014 was known at the time I struggle to think that I would have said that was the limit. Feel free to find a post of mine saying that we couldn't go past that number if we wanted to. I don't think I'd have said that but I could be wrong. Instead I would have said that I wouldn't have gone past that number...because I didn't think the White Sox had an organization that was anywhere close to competitive and there was nothing on the FA market for the amount they had to spend that would turn them into contenders. Given that statement, pushing close to your max payroll would do serious harm to your ability to compete for more than just that season because you wouldn't have much money left to fill any major remaining holes the next year.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 03:49 PM) Again with the 25 million in extra TV revenue = 25 million extra to the payroll. That's totally how Jerry Reinsdorf runs his businesses. So off-base. I'm not even sure what you're suggesting here. The extra $25 million in TV revenue would be allocated somewhere other than revenues? There's a cost associated with that not being included somewhere and thus the White Sox's break even point is even lower than I've suggested? They're going to get $25 million in extra TV revenue and somehow that will result in $40 million in extra payroll spending?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 02:58 PM) I think Saladino's peak is somewhere around where Gordon Beckham peaked out after his rookie campaign. Tyler's time in the minors, he has put up decent numbers for a middle IF. No I don't expect Jason Kipnis type of numbers, but I can squint and see a ceiling of .280/.350/.400. Give him something like 12-15 homers per full season, along with 20ish doubles. It isn't great, but if the guy can play plus defense, he will win you some games. If he's playing SS and is above average with the glove, the numbers you just wrote are a 4 fWAR shortstop.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 02:52 PM) Do you use Forbes to determine your money totals? I use it as a guideline. I also keep an eye on where their actual spending sits every year and when they start crying poor. The 2015 logic was: Their payroll for 2014 was right around $90 million. That was a cutback from 2013 when they started the year at $115 million and sold off Peavy and Thornton during the season. That didn't count $5 million or so in bonuses to Abreu and a couple million in extra signing bonuses for draft picks. 2013 it sure looks like they acted as if they crossed their limit. They cut back on salary during the season and did a big cutback during the offseason. That was with a total actually paid out that was around $110 million. Since 2013 they saw continued ticket sale erosion in 2014 and a boost of $25 million in extra national TV contract money. If you add in that extra $25 million and then imagine some ticket sale erosion, they could get themselves probably with a decent margin of error to a break-even point around $125 million. In 2015 they then spent $118 million on payroll as their opening day number. They presumably don't have to book Jose's signing bonus now that he's been here for >1 year in the same way, although that might have been in there as well. They also saved a little bit by giving away 2 draft picks. When they got past $110 million they started saying they were close to their limit and that they only were able to afford Melky because of additional season ticket sales, which I believe because it is consistent with their overall behavior. That puts their break even point in 2015 probably close to $120-$125 million. That's consistent with $25 million extra compared to the 2013 revenue from the national TV deal, some extra money into the draft compared to that year, but also some erosion of ticket sale and ad revenue. They haven't sold off anyone this season so it's clear they're not above it, but they also have not seen the revenue growth that they were talking about during the offseason from being competitive either. If they were to sustain the extra 2000+ ticket packages I believe they sold last offseason, that would keep their payroll break-even number in that range, maybe with a small boost from revenue sharing moneys and a small drop from not yet having given away their draft picks. However, if their season ticket sales do what I think they're going to do, which is decline substantially after the 2015 season, that will likely push their break-even point back below $120 million. If you add up the guys they already have committed to, and assume the arb guys and Alexei comes back, they're at $110 already committed for 1/2 a roster. That puts them very close to that proposed break-even point. If they don't bring Alexei back, or they cut Flowers loose, that leaves them extra room, but also leaves them an additional position that needs filled. The White Sox have traditionally pushed their opening day payroll very close to but not over their believed break even point while turning roughly a $10 million profit, give or take. If you follow that guideline, you can get a fairly good guess and it really is reasonably well followed most years. They clearly undershot in 2014, but that was likely following a year where they overshot and so they were making up part of the difference. They could change that behavior any of these year, but it's been a very good guideline for what they have to spend since before the ticket price drop. For them to be a serious player for Jayson Heyward, they would need to break that guidance. None of this relies on the Forbes numbers, it can all be done with the team's payroll, trades, and contract signings. However, it is also, notably, consistent with what the Forbes numbers say.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 02:46 PM) Balta has said the White Sox won't be relevant the rest of this decade. He also stated the Cubs reaching the wild card will pay all by itself for Jon Lester's bloated contract, and Balta is never wrong, just ask him. Seems like perfect motivation for going for it again. If you arrive a year too early it's worth over $150 million. Think about what it's worth if it's 3 or 4 years too early. And you've never made an incorrect call either right? So either tell me where my logic is wrong, tell me where this extra money is, go through the numbers and do it yourself, or I get to bring up your predictions about how well Victor Martinez will age because all you're willing to do is make it personal.

Something must be wrong there because the error bars on the age measurement includes "13 years after the year we're giving as his purported death and 22 years after the date we're giving for when the first Muslim community was founded" and yet for some reason they're saying it was compiled during his childhood?

QUOTE (raBBit @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 02:32 PM) I am sure those in payroll are just painting the entire White Sox fan base with a broad brush and saying, "We should bring our estimates down because our fans are either "bored with this team" or unwilling to be "fooled again" so there's no way we can increase spending this offseason." No, in a couple weeks what they're going to be saying is "this year's season ticket renewals are a bloodbath."

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Sep 1, 2015 -> 01:58 PM) The fact that this is a thread on September 1st this season depresses me. Also the fact that he could probably slot in play at 3B on this team also depresses me. Saladino is a utility player, have we not all realized this yet? I think it's so blatantly obvious. Even if we don't keep Alexei next year he shouldn't start. It should be Sanchez and Micah up the middle and someone entirely different at 3B. I don't think there's any obvious reason to believe that Sanchez would be a more effective SS, offensively and defensively, than Saladino. Maybe he's a more solid bat but I'll definitely expect Tyler to be a better defender, at least if they both played SS.