Greg Hibbard

You mention those 210 strikeouts in a vacuum. Do you disagree that Moncada got rung up on called third strikes that were actually balls at an unprecedented rate? Because that's what the stats say. Do me a favor, as a mental exercise, just please turn 10 of those strikeouts into walks and get back to me and see where his numbers might have been if the umps were where they would have been with literally any other player. Also, let's please contextualize Moncada's age. He missed nearly 18 months of baseball at a critical time waiting to get over here. That doesn't happen to most 23 year olds. Do you utterly discount that? In baseball years, he's more like 21 1/2. Can you imagine where he might be at 25-26-27-28?

Hate them together. Broadcast is unlistenable.

Embarrassing to who? Not to this White Sox fan. Let's talk about dirty play/lazy play. What was AJ Pierzynski's reputation before he came here? What about Dennis Rodman? Would anyone argue with either of those signings in hindsight? I would argue that both came to Reinsdorf teams and grew the fuck up a little, and learned to play hard, sometimes creatively, but they also learned to fit into a scheme to win championships along the way. Remember Rodman kicking the cameraman? I think Machado has some growing up to do, and here he can do it. How? By surrounding him with the right people - a support team he can lean on and an organization hungry to let him be The Man and cater to him. I'm proud they are pulling out all the stops. It's about fucking time. I watch national media do their best to completely ignore us year after year as we play second fiddle to the Cubs' salad years. THAT'S what's embarrassing. We are the most forgettable also-ran team in any city in America, and we need to do SOMETHING. We need a STAR. Not someone who projects to be a star, not someone who is a can't miss prospect still in the minors. A bona fide, proven, major league STAR. We need to start building that so we can rebuild an actually healthy fanbase. We are losing people in this town as the Cubs reel off 96+ wins a year and the Bears move into championship mode. If we don't do this NOW, we risk 10,000 at the park next August and September. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are those stars. Get one of them and LET'S GO. Whatever it takes.

He's not league average, but he's above replacement. That's been a problem - rounding out their lineup with above replacement players. Also, the White Sox aren't positioning themselves to win a World Series next year. They are positioning themselves to contend for the division title in a weak division, win 80-90 games, identify who is valuable moving forward, and continue development. A proven, consistent veteran you can plug into a hole at a fair price is valuable thing.

I’ll bite, Greg. The Jay signing doesn’t anger me because Jay is a pretty damned consistent non-needle mover. You know what you will get -a .270-.280 season, probably an OBA of .320-.330, passable CF. A WAR of 1-1.5 at a position in the batting order, and within our financial scheme where it’s perfectly acceptable to have that. The Machado stuff is cherry on top. It’s a very smart move all around. With Avi Garcia, you might get a 2.5 WAR season where he hits the BABIP luckbox again, or you might get injuries, inconsistent defense, low batting average, low oba - for twice the money. The latter is much, much more likely. With Engel, who knows where the bottom might be offensively, and we’ve reiterated over and over again that the defensive wows don’t amount to nearly enough to outweigh it. I think you can pencil in Jay’s floor and his ceiling. There’s a comfort in some sort of certainty.

should I be concerned about Herrera's Washington splits from last year?

I like the way you think, but the conditional probabilities of getting both are not equivalent to the standalone probabilities of acquiring one. There's a very real chance that getting one means the White Sox simply no longer pursue the other.

I've shifted my thinking on this over the last couple of months. Regardless of expectations, it really would be a massive disappointment if the White Sox didn't land one of these two players. At any price. With the way they have constructed this team, they should pay whatever it takes to get one of the best players in the game for the 5 years they expect to contend for a World Title. Even if it's a 10-12 year deal where they pay 5 bad years at the end. If they don't land one of them, and end up falling into the 85-90 wins/catch lightning in a bottle pattern they have tried to parlay into relevancy over the last 20 years, I think they really flirt with danger of losing relevance whatsoever. The culture of the casual fan in this town is 100% behind the Cubs baseball wise, and the Bears are good again. If we don't pay through the nose to get one of the best players in the game, in their prime, we're just dumb. And probably fucked. We need to make that kind of splash NOW.

haha I guess that is a stretch. I just meant in terms of how someone will overvalue him.

Avi Garcia is the Carlos Lee of this era. Some team will give him a ton of cash and regret it. I hope it's not us.

5-6 years ago I would have thought it would be out of the question to have a debate about who the better career hitter was, but Pujols' recent stat-crash has put his batting line below the Big Hurt's: Pujols: .302/.382/.554/.936 Thomas: .301/.419/.555/.974 Obviously, Pujols has 112 more homers and 140 more doubles, but Frank has 2000 less PAs (he had many strike and injury shortened seasons) and far more walks. Who do you think the better hitter is? It's likely that as long as he plays, Albert's career mark will continue to decline...should that count against him in the comparison? He's still younger than Frank was at retirement...

I'm sure he's shooting higher, but there's no way Jose Abreu gets $18M a year in FA next year at his age, right?

I don't mind 4/52-55. Everything else is way too much for diminishing returns.

Pay $16 million re-evaluate after 2019 nobody else will pay him big money considering his age he has a preference for the Sox so they have the advantage in negotiation why on earth do anything else?

These are the two things I think the board is greatly split on. 1) Anderson was a 2.5 WAR player, basically in the top 150 of all players. He had an OPS 10 points higher than 2017 despite a BABIP 39 points lower. Given his BABIP, what did you exactly expect him to do, offensively? 2) Moncada showed improvement on strikeouts after August 16th. He only struck out 45 of his last 161 plate appearances (27.9%) as opposed to the 172 times in his previous 489 plate appearances (35.1%). His OPS in September was .767. I still think he's a year behind many people on development, if not more, due to the time he was compelled to sit out to get over here. He essentially didn't play pro ball for the better part of 18 months at a crucial time. Over the next 1000 PAs I expect a significant improvement from him. I still think he'll be a .790 OPS player with 25 homers, 30 2B, 70 BB, and 150 Ks. If Moncada and Anderson continue to improve, and if Kopech comes back healthy and Eloy performs as expected - and if Madrigal and Robert have significant ML value - the rebuild can only be termed a success. 2019 is the crucial year that will determine it.

That makes sense to me. Thanks for doing the math. Given that baseball is perhaps more rife with payroll disparity in that era than other sports, wouldn’t you think the median would be lower than the mean, given teams like the Red Sox and Yankees who spent their way to the AL playoffs year after year after year, especially in the late 90s and 00s?

I hate to drag the discussion back from the abyss of attendance, but this post from a few pages ago really bothers me. Yes, the White Sox had an era from 1920-1982 where they made the playoffs just once, which was the worst of probably any franchise by far. Since then they've made the playoffs 5 times. Here's all the teams that haven't gone to the playoffs more than the White Sox since 1983: Milwaukee (3), Kansas City (4), Cincinnati (5), Miami (2), Seattle (4), Tampa Bay (4), Expos/Nationals (4), Padres (5), Rockies (5). Yes I realize a few of those teams weren't born until well after 1983. A handful of other teams have gone 6 times since 1983 (Arizona, Baltimore, Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh). It seems to me that 5-6-7 playoff appearances is about the median for baseball teams over the past 35 years. I think it's also worth pointing out that the mighty New York Yankees only went to the postseason 5 times during the 30 year stretch of 1965-1994.

Ok, so let me be clear on your take here. Another aspect of my point is that Palka was able to put up the equivalent of a 1.0 season in his very first 449 PAs. I think more importantly though, his HR/PA and WAR vastly improved from his first 200 PAs compared to his last 250. Do you think that improvement is luck/illusory or growth?

Yes, the Cubs have had a nice 4 year run. Do you disagree that the White Sox were one of the 7-8 best franchises from 1990-2010?

Taking his 0.7 fWAR for 449 plate appearances and presenting it here as if it's a seasonal statistic is really fair to you, right?

The White Sox were a very, very competitive and successful team from 1990-2010 in the majority of seasons, and I think some fans incorporate that into their frustration while simultaneously forgetting that this has been a great franchise for those years - one that fares very well compared to most of the others. 4 division titles, and arguably our best team was the one ripped away from us by the strike. We won a title. How many other teams can say that over those 22 years? The Yankees won 5 of them, the Red Sox 2, the Blue Jays 2, the Marlins 2. Over half of the 21 championships in 22 years went to just 4 of the teams..... The Braves were a better team, certainly, despite also only winning one title - they won 4 pennants. Were the Indians a better franchise? In terms of regular season record, no doubt. They have zero titles to show for it. Would you trade places with their fans? Most teams were worse. The Cubs - 4 division titles with not even a pennant to show for it. The A's never won a title in that era despite their incredible '90 season and the run they had in the early 2000s. The Mariners and their 116 win season, and all the glory of having both Ichiro and Junior, among other stars - nada - not even a pennant. When we get into competitive teams like the Astros? Great players for many years - some hall of famers - a pennant to show for it and being swept handily by our team. Teams like the Brewers, Rockies, Padres? The Expos/Nationals? Teams like the Pirates? Many were occasionally competitive. Some were a joke almost that entire era. From 1995 to 2009 the Yankees, Red Sox, or Indians won the pennant in nearly every year - the only exceptions are the Angels in 2002, the White Sox in 2005, The Tigers in 2006, and the Rays in 2008 (which I think everyone acknowledges might be the most miraculous thing ever done). Our team actually WON - the whole enchilada - a title.... in that era of unbalanced insane dominance by force of payroll. We have had an unbelievably bad 8 years. There's no question that 2011-2018 was really, really bad. The acquisition of Adam Dunn kicked off an era where things just went wrong. Really wrong. They went wrong for basically 5 and a half seasons until we finally decided that enough was enough - that the firing of Guillen, handing over the keys to Hahn and still trying to retool under Ventura just wasn't enough - that a wholesale different direction was required. I for one, think that our team during most of my life did quite well. Certainly during those 22 years I mentioned, we did VERY well. Especially when compared to most other franchises. I never thought I would see a title from the vantage point of 95-99 - when the Indians just CRUSHED us every year in the division, and then the Yanks and eventually the Red Sox would just outspend one another to buy a title with a fantasy squad. Did you? But here's the thing - those 22 good years bought the White Sox a little fan equity in my mind. I'm not really the frustrated baseball fan enduring decades of losing. No White Sox fan is. Really going back to the late 80s when they drafted those four superstars in a row - the franchise has done plenty right. But that's not the point even - I'm a fan of the White Sox because I've always been a fan since I was a kid and always will be. However, I do trust that this ownership group WILL right the ship BECAUSE they are owed a few bad seasons because of the 22 good ones we had. I might be wrong. They might not be able to do it. But after the first 5 of those bad seasons, decisions were made to completely tear down and rebuild which necessitated the need for definitely 2017 and 2018 just being bad. 90 losses, 95 losses, 100 losses....more....it was gonna be bad and we knew it. Therefore, NO, I don't think anyone needs to be axed this year, necessarily. I really don't. If you want to blame the Steverson, consider this - does he also deserve accolades for Daniel Palka having an unreal year? Does he deserve any accolades for fixing some of Moncada's strikeout problems in the last month of the season - against many frontline starters? I think the franchise having some continuity in this offseason actually has more value than making a change. I think 2019 is the year you can start to get impatient. I think 2019 is the crucial season in which the most important decisions will be made, and when Moncada and Anderson better be 2.5-3.5 WAR players (Anderson really is already there, hopefully), when the pitching staff better be getting into place, and when we need to absolutely shore up the positions of C and CF for the medium term. If a big step forward isn't made and this team isn't in a position to compete for a division title by the end of 2019, then I think you start to make WHOLESALE changes with leadership, at that point.

The last two pure rebuilds before this one were 1997-99 and 1986-88?

I take exception to this. Anderson's OPS was 9 points higher with his BABIP 40 points lower.

There is a chance that Avi's injuries contributed to what would have otherwise been a fine year. If the Sox aren't in the running for Machado, why not spend the $8 million? What's the downside there? To be clear, I think the non-tender option is also fine, but I think there's a chance he has trade value after all if a team comes up with an injured starting outfielder.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24935217/avisail-garcia-chicago-white-sox-surgery-right-knee