NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 2, 2011 -> 02:07 PM) Failed Alaskan Senate Candidate Joe Miller also launched a campaign today...the "Stop Romney" campaign. LOL If the current Tea Party "Leaders" like Miller actually succeed in putting a far right conservative on the ticket, then they have thrown any chance they have in the general in the garbage.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Jun 1, 2011 -> 02:49 PM) Yeah, that's kinda what i'm saying. Why on earth did we agree to just give them money without expecting them to pay it back if they stayed in business? What idiot signed us up for that? TARP was wildly successful, one of the few large pieces of legislation in recent memory where that can be said. How is that idiotic?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 1, 2011 -> 10:32 AM) A year ago I might have agreed with you...but the longer this goes on, the more I'm starting to flip and think that the fact that the housing market is down has now imposed societal changes that will keep the housing market "Down" at least until something happens with unemployment. Although prices have not undershot the pre-bubble levels yet, I've seen some data suggesting that the total housing construction has already undershot where it should be relative to a hypothetical bubble-less condition. In other words, we're already underinvesting in Housing (and everything else) relative to the long term trend...but there's been very little sign of growth because we're no where near working through the distressed sale gap and won't be for years. The lack of spending on construction/lack of jobs at some point might well be feeding back to a situation where the number of people who would buy houses decreases, causing less and less spending on housing and a long-term stagnation in this market. See, my opinion has changed since a year ago as well, but in a different way. A year ago I would not have thought the prices would drop this much further... but I also would have thought the recovery would be very slow and long. Now, I think we're going to see a much bigger snap back. I see a situation here where the powder is being overloaded in the gun. Prices continue to plummet... foreclosures are coming off the books pretty nicely... new housing is underperforming, so less supply going on... rental market is very hot, to the point where rent levels are way higher than equivalent mortgage costs in many places. Add it all up, and really, the buyers are waiting on just one thing - easier lending. Once lending loosens significantly, I think you see not a slow recovery, but a pretty quick one. So the question THEN is... when will lending loosen? Believe it or not, I don't think its unemployment that's going to be the key here - though that is a major underpinning of the economy as a whole. Here is what is going on... banks got a whole boatload of cash to lend out, but what they ended up doing is, instead of lending it, they stash it away as reg and questioning capital. Its waiting to see what happens with various new laws and rules. Now, as the next year or two go on, those things will settle out. You have, in essence, a current "bubble" in regulatory and compliance spending in the financial sector that will not last. What this means is, in a year or two, as interest rates go up with all the cash being flooded in, and the regulatory environment solidifying... banks will then see that opportunistic situation in housing, and lending will start to loosen - banks going for better return on capital than they will get from a market that already priced in a recovery AND inflation. See where I'm going here?

Sweep here would be HUGE, not to mention it would mean making for a 5-5 road trip (which is not a bad showing). Then come home from that, to face Detroit. I still like two goals for the Sox by the ASB: over .500 and in 2nd place. If they can do both, I'd feel pretty good about this club's chances.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jun 1, 2011 -> 10:21 AM) Am I incorrect?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 1, 2011 -> 10:12 AM) Housing numbers aren't seasonally adjusted, or at least YoY analyzed? Yes and no. No, the numbers aren't adjusted in the same sense you'd think. But yes, they generally published trends vs previous YoY and such. If you look at the curve of activity, it hit a bottom then spiked around the housing tax credit deals, then bottomed again, now is back up a little. So as I said, there is some increase there... but prices are still plummeting because such a large percentage of sales are foreclosures. This is ultimately healthy for the market, but for now, it sucks. Just need to keep the new home building really low (which it is) for a while longer.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 1, 2011 -> 09:35 AM) Monthly Jobs Report comes out Friday. The current estimate for private sector job growth, which doesn't include the continuing government job cuts, is 38,000. That is not good. The jobs picture has definitely been getting worse the past couple months. Not looking good at all. Of course its also an uneven thing across industries, with some (health and financial) still growing pretty well, and others just falling like a rock. And the housing picture is still going through its girations around the bottom, with prices decreasing but activity increasing.

QUOTE (flavum @ May 30, 2011 -> 12:13 PM) New pitchers to Charlotte... Cameron Bayne Brandon Kloess Kloess? Skipped AA to go to Charlotte? They must think its a short-term assignment, no way he deserved that over some of the relievers at B-Ham.

You've got Short and Kuhn in the B-Ham lineup.... and you STILL lead off with KW Jr? Seriously?

QUOTE (Y2HH @ May 25, 2011 -> 10:40 AM) There are many factors contributing to oil prices, such as the value of the dollar, unnecessary fear being spread about production (fact is, the supply has remained constant despite wars), speculation, locking in futures contracts at high prices, etc. Some speculation is good for markets, even necessary, it's when speculation is abused and bastardized which is the problem. What do I mean by bastardized speculation? Speculation is usually used in commodities markets to lock in prices to prevent huge price swings for delivery takers. For example, Hershey company would look at the price of cocoa and determine if the price may rise due to crop yields, and buy a bunch of contracts on speculation that the cost may rise in the future, in this example, they'd have locked in contracts at the current price because they think it's going to cost more soon. This prevents the prices from going up too high in the future because the cocoa industry realizes that a big buyer already locked in plenty of futures and won't need more for a while...it's like a control mechanism. This also works by preventing the prices from falling so low that the sellers cannot make money, as if the prices fall low, the buyers will start locking up contracts, which shortens supply, putting the price back in line where it belongs. This type of speculation keeps the markets stable. The problem comes in when speculators are actively looking to rocket the price by buying up supplies and holding them so when inventories are counted, those contracts are "off the market" and thus inventories will look artificially low. The only reason this works is because the people with these contracts have no intention of taking delivery, all they're looking to do is keep the barrels locked up so when inventories are counted, the barrels they bought "don't exist", which offsets supply and demand. Of course, it's all artificial supply and demand, since we know they not only don't want to take delivery, but in reality, they CANNOT take delivery...where would they store 5M barrels of oil, and what would they do with it if they could? My problem isn't speculation, there is a reason for legit buyers and sellers of commodities to speculate on price. My problem is that people are being allowed to speculate that have ZERO intention of accepting delivery, not only that, but have NO actual use for said commodity other than making money off of it. IMO, if you aren't able to accept delivery of a commodity such as cocoa or oil (food/petroleum), you have no business buying futures. This is bastardized speculation, and downright evil...considering we are talking about food and oil, which affects peoples lives, often in very drastic ways. The problem with your last graf is, if you eliminate all people from the market that aren't directly selling or buying the commodity - which is to say, remove all market making and cross hedging - the market loses massive amounts of liquidity, and prices will actually become MORE erratic and LESS connected to the value of the product. It seems counterintuitive, but its a reality of those markets. So you shouldn't really do that - you should instead look for the true abusers, like the ones in the case Balta cited.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ May 23, 2011 -> 04:08 PM) In Brown v Plata today, the SCOTUS upheld a federal order for California to release up to 46,000 inmates due to 8th amendment violations caused by severe over-crowding. http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/10pdf/09-1233.pdf Scalia, in a blistering dissent, indulged in a surprising amount of post-modern subjectivism. He also blatantly called for judicial activism and an abandonment of his originalist facade, instead advocating making the law fit a priori "common sense" outcomes. Alito with an awesome fire-and-brimstone ending in his separate dissent: The term "judicial activism" as it is used in American politics is a wholly empty use of words. Completely meaningless. When politicians use the phrase, it almost invariably has a different meaning: "judges doing things I don't agree with".

QUOTE (Y2HH @ May 23, 2011 -> 02:03 PM) Good, I hope it gets warm and stays warm. anticipatory strike here... please no one feed the troll. He's looking for a reaction.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ May 23, 2011 -> 02:09 PM) Thats not true. I have head-hunters and HR people from other companies emailing probably on average 5 times a month (if not more) asking If I'm interested in appying for all kinds of jobs. And I know friends that have gotten jobs as a result of people reaching out to them (and finding them) via linked in. It seems like a great way to go out and find the candidates you are looking for that have jobs and might not be looking. Though I generally agree with Y2HH on the valuation of LinkedIn, he's definitely wrong about recruiting. People use LinkedIn to find candidates all the time. Heck I have recruiters contacting me at least once a month who found me that way, and all I have up there is a very basic profile with little detail beyond position title, company and timeframe, and what degrees I hold. That said, I think that tends to happen more with professionals who have an established career track, that can be easily gleaned from the information on the site. For a recent college grad, its probably not real helpful.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ May 23, 2011 -> 01:13 PM) Right, which is why I said I don't think he meant it that way. But to say that "value" is ONLY based on known factors today, like revenue, isn't really accurate. And to that note... someone tell me about future revenue streams for LinkedIn. They are just not that big, even if LinkedIn becomes uber-huge, you really only have two streams - advertising and some small amount for premium account types. The future growth is just not in the ballpark with this price.

They're now saying Byrd is out "indefinitely" with those facial fractures. He's still got some blurry vision, but he can at least see out of both eyes at this point (he wasn't able to see out of one eye for a few minutes after the hit). Goes without saying, but just to emphasize, I hate to see stuff like that happen to any player. I hope he fully recovers.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 22, 2011 -> 02:47 PM) Link(ed in). I personally blame the idiots buying the stock up that high, as much as the underwriters. Seriously, I looked a bit at LinkedIn before the IPO... for that stock to run up like that, to establish that level of market cap, for a business whose revenue streams are very limited in my eyes... its a little reminiscent of some of the tech stock run-ups of the late 90's. I would avoid that stock like the plague.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 21, 2011 -> 08:04 AM) Is that guy a real jerk deliberately? Honestly, given the reactions of the kids, it seems to me that being a jerk may be necessary. 8th graders probably need the occasional verbal head-smack back to reality. I have no problem with it.

I know JPN might get a little more worked up about it that others... but I do have to agree that having KW Jr be drafted 5th when he wasn't even on some teams' boards, get starting gigs and promotions regularly, and leading off with a .190 Avg is just insulting to the other players in the system.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 20, 2011 -> 02:33 PM) Oh ****, now I have to agree with Rand Paul. On the bright side, this might actually put the War Powers Act in court. That's constitutionally fascinating. I agree as well, I'd like to see this played out. I actually am not vehemently against the Libya thing, but I do think we need to clarify and harden some of these executive rules on warfare a bit.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ May 20, 2011 -> 08:52 AM) There's really not much of a 4th amendment left these days since there's so many exceptions carved out. Now if police knock on your door and they hear you moving around, that's an exigent circumstance. That's a ridiculous exaggeration and you know it. That is not what this decision said, at all.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ May 19, 2011 -> 03:35 PM) So I'm the best man at my brothers wedding next weekend and I need to make a speech obviously. I've only been to two weddings as an adult so I don't really have a lot of wedding experience to go on here. Any suggestions for what makes a good/bad speech? How long should it be? Stuff that should be off-limits? Etc...I want it to be kind of funny or amusing and not to bore people but I want to make sure I'm appropriate. I've been kind of stressing about this because I'm just not exactly sure what to say at the moment. Anyone with any advice would be much appreciated. I'd avoid talking about the groom's former girlfriends or other such escapades. Yes, I've seen this happen.

Nevin Griffith is not doing well.

QUOTE (Maxwell @ May 20, 2011 -> 01:04 AM) I wish I could ignore some of the mods and admin. I'd rather not read the exuded arrogance or observe them not following their own rules. If we were the types of mods/admins you seem to think we are... or if this were a site that was actually restrictive like WSI (nothing against that, its just their preferred style)... then you wouldn't even be able to read these responses to your posts, would you? Carry on.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ May 19, 2011 -> 06:00 PM) The 4th Amendment took a beating on Monday with the SCOTUS' 8-1 ruling in Kentucky v King. the opinion I read the brief and an analysis, and I agree with the decision here.

I'd eat it if it tastes decent.