NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 08:30 AM) The one thing that is holding Morel back from showing up on everyone's radar is the power numbers. I still think there's more in his frame than we've seen in those terms though, and I'll bet he'll show some of it if he stays in Charlotte for 2011. He hit 16 HR last year, 4 so far this year. Doesn't worry me a ton just yet. In a park like Charlotte, with him adjusting well, I'd be the power comes next and he hits a handful as the rest of the season wears on.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 03:03 AM) Ptatc's evaluation doesn't sound good. As it turned out, Jake was a complete waste of money. He's a gamer and all, but it's money down the drain. And yes, I wish him the best in his recovery. It sucks he got hurt. I don't feel sorry for baseball teams that waste money like this, however. Giving pitchers multi year megabuck deals is just stupid in this day and age of coddling arms that in the best of times can't give a team more than 105 pitches a night. Nobody held a gun to the head of owners who brought this upon themselves. Was? What? Dude has another few seasons here, let's not get ahead of ourselves, Eeyore.

Mark is one of the great examples of players succeeding despite long odds. Drafted in the 38th round (1139th overall) out of a community college, makes it to the majors in less than two years, and wins more games in the current decade then almost any other pitcher in baseball. Awesome.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 16, 2010 -> 08:04 AM) Honestly, is that really the case? I'm under the impression that the widespread trading of oil futures contracts as speculation is something that is fairly new as of the last couple decades, am I wrong on that? Furthermore, even if I'm wrong, I think it's safe to argue against the rationality of markets under certain circumstances right now. For example, if the futures markets had predicted the large dropoff in demand for oil in 2008, it would have blunted the gigantic price spike. On the other hand, if the futures markets were trading into a bubble, they would have exacerbated the price spike and helped push down the global economy. I think, in hindsight, that the latter was reality. Who said the market was perfect? What kap was suggesting was to not have one at all. In other words, the oil cartels could collude (they are mostly not in US jurisdiction for their discussions away) and push prices for oil and gas sky high. They already own a ton of patents for alt energy anyway, so if the increased prices push more research that way, then great - win-win. Yes, its really the case. I am not saying the markets aren't flawed - they are. I'm not saying its the greatest thing ever. I'm saying things would be a lot worse on consumers in terms of energy costs if not for those markets.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 11:54 PM) Morel is probably more useful to the Sox than he is as a trade chip. He's not exactly a top 100 prospect in the majors. I agree - he's not a guy on most radars it seems, but he's done basically the same thing at each level - broef adjustment, then rake. Add in his plus defense, and I really like the idea of him being the Sox 3B in 2011. That means Viciedo can be 1B/DH, and that gives the team one less hole to fill. Also, nice to see Wilkins raking so far. And I have to admit, with as long as he was out and injured, Jose Martinez had pretty much dropped off my radar. He's still pretty young, if he can put it together, with the physical tools he's said to have... that would be a nice comeback story.

QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 11:07 PM) Plus, if you dump that much gold at one time you will depress the price severely with that much on the market at once. Gold is absurdly overbought as it is, so frankly if I'm the US government, I might consider selling some it now.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 09:50 PM) You are still missing the point. The GOVERNMENT is not the ones who should be telling us what to eat. This is preposterous. You don't even realize the freedoms of making those decisions. Right or wrong, it's NOT THE PLACE OF THE GOVERNMENT to tell us what to eat and what not to. Yet, you condone this from our government. Oil subsidies, bmags? Get rid of them. Bring it on. But while you're at it, if you buy a contract, you have to own the oil and take physical possesion of it. (goodbye speculators and other bulls*** market manipulations) First... these are public schools we are talking about. I'm all for getting parents heavily involved in nearly all things school, but frankly, the school diet will not be helped by most parents. For public schools, the schools need to do something - either independently, or at the state or federal level. Probably best at the state level. Second... If the only people buying oil futures contracts are planning to take delivery, then you no longer have a market whatsoever. Oil prices will go up FAR faster that way, than with having futures markets.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 02:31 PM) The worst thing that can happen if we lose today is a tie for first place. I have no idea why Slowey is pitching today, he's been bad lately and he hasn't had the greatest year. Pavano's been their best starter as of late. I get the impression they are trying to make a decision on Slowey one way or another, as soon as possible. The game preview on mlb.com hinted at it.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 10:43 AM) To be fair, he can't be too happy about having some of the best numbers in the league and not even making the team in the first place. I have a feeling that he's a little bitter about the whole selection process (he did get tossed the day the roster were announced). I'm going to the game on Sunday, mostly to watch Halladay pitch. Should be fun. He should indeed have made it outright, I wouldn't argue that.

Big series. Does the team keep rolling? This road trip may be the hardest left on the slate. If we can beat .500 on the trip, the team is in good shape for a run at the division title.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 08:31 AM) ah yes, I remember it well. NSS yelled at me good I don't even remember that. I yelled?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 09:02 AM) It looks like they set modern day to zero, which really screws up the chart. That would give you the opposite result - variations would be smaller in the past. Its a posted growth rate number anyway, so I don't think it works that way in this chart.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 08:34 AM) I thought that was what you meant but I wasn't sure. Is it possible that a simple answer to the question of "Why has volatility decreased over time" is that the size of the system in total is larger, such that a $1 trillion shock in 1929 is vastly larger than a $1 trillion shock today? That's one of a few possibilities, yes.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 07:23 PM) Riiiiiiiiiiiiiight. That's it. And blackmail works when you have cash and threaten to take every dime of it away in another manner. I shouldn't be shocked that neither of you understand the real issues here, because you know, our country sucks and should just be ObamaLand ™. You could try explaining what you see as the "real issues here". That might actually create some good discussion.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 08:26 AM) Vega? Implied volatility, in this case implied by the periodic snapshots. In other words, decreasing vega, if you trace a line of peaks and a line of valleys on that GDP growth line, you will see that the two lines are approaching each other to intersect at some point in the future. Now of course, they won't ACTUALLY intersect, and the function is probably better represented by two functions approaching a common limit. But its interesting to see the gap tightening, with remarkable consistency, over time.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 09:42 PM) lol @ people b****ing at Votto. lol @ people supporting Votto's b**** move. Unprofessional and stupid. Not a big deal, but, says a lot negative about the guy's idea of how the game works. Sad.

I'd rather stay on Threets for the minimum, see if he looks decent. If he does, great. If not, by the time you determine that, Sale can be brought up, also for the minimum. If we have $2M to spend, there are about 5 different priorities for spending it that are higher than lefty specialist reliever.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 08:29 PM) NSS, have you seen Ken Burns series on the topic? The National Parks series, called like "Our Greatest Idea" or something like that? Yes, it was phenomenal. Highly recommended. And that's just the National Parks. If you want to get away from the crowds, there are all sorts of beautiful places that are wilderness areas as well, if you are willing to use your own two legs to get to them.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 06:43 AM) A simple graph of tax rates vs. government revenue vs. GDP shows that's bulls***. Here's one: That GDP growth line is fascinating, in a way that isn't even your main point. It appears to have a declining Vega over that period, reaching near zero in the present. That's kind of weird.

Its completely situational for me, so I'm not sure what the answer is.

QUOTE (girlslikebaseballtoo#26 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 03:03 PM) LOL I would hate any place that has colder winters than Arkansas ...I spend my winters in California!!! So what would happen then if Chase makes it to Chicago some day to play? I mean, if you think Arkansas winters are cold...

As for Starved Rock, I'd do hiking instead of biking, because the cool stuff to see, you won't really see on the bike. Take the hiking paths that go do some of the waterfalls and pools, its pretty cool. As far as parks and wilderness areas outside Illinois, jeez, there are so many cool ones to see. Tell me what you find interesting and I'll give you some ideas. I've done backcountry hikes and backpacking all over the west.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 02:09 PM) I see some small differences in the release point hight, maybe a couple of inches at most. There's also a difference in the release point from the top view, also by a couple of inches. His strike zone from the last month looks like he's not elevating the high fastball enough, he also appears to have a lot more very inside pitches. Like I said, I'm not an expert at pitch f/x, but I see differences. The ones that interest me the most now, are those strike zone plot graphs. He's maybe more up, but really, he's just more off. Kind of goes to what I said earlier, when he gets ahead in the count and tries for a pitch for them to go fishing, he misses by a lot more. That to me, is more likely mental than physical.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 01:51 PM) Well, the issue here is that there would have to have been a systematic change in PF/X between the 2 populations with the change correlating approximately with the time that Thornton's injury cropped up and his performance suffered, which I think is less likely. I think that, given its the horizontal spread that has the larger change (though still quite small), without a corresponding vertical change (if it was truly arm slot, you should see variance in BOTH), I really think that if the change is even statistically or systematically significant (which I am not sure of), that its something NOT arm slot. Its somewhere else in his body, or its location on the rubber.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 01:47 PM) The current release point is less consistent, more erratic, at least that's what I see. It has a much wider range in the horizontal direction, which could very well affect location. Plus, this almost validates what I said about his arm slot changing, it's more 3/4 now , whereas it was more overhead before. I don't see a validation. The vertical change is under an inch I think (can't tell for sure), probably well under, so I see nothing there. Horizontal, without a vertical change, tells me its variance not caused by arm slot - could be body location, or a change in the way the rest of his upper body is oriented to his lower body on release. Could that theoretically be a sign of injury or fatigue? Yes, but I think its unlikely, given the lack of significance of the change.