caulfield12

I actually thought all these Sox offseason moves are exactly the types of moves a team in teardown mode would be making, like the club approaching 2016-17 offseason...hoping to flip them at the deadline. Well, Graveman and Kelly both would be considered riskier I suppose.

No...that Kimbrel being on roster carries yet another danger. Which amounts to losing a bullpen arm we wouldn't have had to if not for this particular situation. Everyone was already reconciled to losing Adolfo, so he becomes the most obvious aspect of any trade package at this point. Along with an elevated risk of injury to Kimbrel. The Sox would get roughly $8~10 million back, assuming he's insured in a similar fashion to David Wells in 2001.

At least they can't turn around and give that $200k "saved" to Texas for their international draft pool... This time, it goes the other direction to offload Kimbrel from the roster. instead of Nate Jones.

Who'd a thunk outfield defense is important? This just means Pollock to the Sox for sure, lol. Oops. Stuck with Kimbrel again. I remember a time many years ago when we ended up with one of the best LH relievers in baseball because they were going to be a spring training roster cut and would have been exposed...Damaso Marte. Pretty sure Thornton was the other one. Although one would doubt it's Micker Adolfo or a White Sox reliever having similar success if given an opportunity.

One more reason why Kimbrel wasn't a compelling need to bring into the regular season...do we have to keep him in the big league roster or risk losing him like Adolfo?

You’re betting on all these guys like Abreu, Lynn, 34 year old Pollock, Harrison, Graveman and Kelly repeating…the odds are definitely not with the Sox. That’s not even getting into recent club history with such veteran targets. You’re also blocking Vaughn’s development, and potentially spending up to $25 million more over a two year commitment, also blocking Cespedes and Colas potentially. No reason just to not pay the much younger, better fielding, Joc Pederson his $6 million to be a one year strong side platoon. Then that $10 million is better allocated to starting pitching. And Pollock just can’t stay healthy for a full season.

Who would the Dodgers start in his spot? Lux?

Up to six different teams involved? Far easier to go to Oakland with Burger or Lopez and Adolfo. We can’t afford to give up Sheets for a one year rental.

Current status: Constipated.

That would clearly negate the Sox plan to only add 30 something veterans.

There's another obvious question for the Dodgers trade...who would they start in the OF with Pollock traded? Beaty or Lux? They just traded one of their spare outfielders the other day, pretty sure.

Gore and Abrams aren't going to be it, so that leaves Campusano, Hassell, James Wood (Rookie Ball). Wood, maybe? What offensive player would the Padres take from the Phillies? Just not seeing it. Haseley or O.Herrera aren't going to get anyone excited in SD. Same with Didi Gregorious. Those would all be downgrades, except if Didi could play SS (instead of Kim), but then they've also got Tatis and Abrams and Cronenworth up the middle. The White Sox nor the Padres (Grisham) have a CFer to spare, unless it's Engel/Leury (that doesn't move the bar, either). This trade is already getting WAY too complicated and there are simply too many moving parts...and the Mets should have simply signed one of the relievers that we bought (or had previously) on the open market, like Kelly/Graveman/Tepera/Velasquez, etc.

Bigger point is you could have had the younger Joc Pederson for $6.5-7.0 million, now we would taking on a $15-25 million two year commitment (see escalator clause above)...while simultaneously limiting Vaughn's ability to come into his own as a hitter (we need YOUNG/CHEAPER/GOOD players!!!), seems we keep making this team older and older by the month. You also could end up blocking Colas and Cespedes in 2023, although that's not the primary issue here.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aj-pollock/9256/stats?position=OF Definitely a consistent 2-3 fWAR performer, WHEN healthy. 34 years old (warning label attached), $10 million plus $10 million player option for next year ($5 million buyout, not sure how that would work, but it would be roughly an even salary swap). From the information, if he had 600 plate appearances, his 2023 contract would be $15 million, so possible $25 million outlay for two years, lowest would be $15 million. 2023 Option escalates $1M each for 400,450,500,550,600 Plate Appearances in 2022 https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/aj-pollock-10693/ The next point is it would leave Vaughn/Sheets as the DH platoon, with Vaughn only getting 30-40% of the at-bats. Not addressing the left-handed hitting issue, as Pollock hits RH. Defense has been trending negative for three years in a row...from positive the first seven years of his career, peaking at age 27 in 2015. Don't love it...because it means we likely send Vaughn down to hit everyday, trade Sheets (or even more RHed if they trade Sheets/Burger instead for pitching) or weak-side platoon Vaughn (only 30-40% of at-bats avail). Pollock at his age and with his declining defense seems to be not worth the upside, because you're unlikely to get a repeat 30's "peak" year out of him again as he nears his mid 30's.

Those sound like names from a 1950's noir movie script...

Clear based on what? That one video link that was vague on details? Phillies yet again? https://www.thegoodphight.com/2021/7/23/22575765/lets-make-a-fake-deal-phillies-get-bryant-kimbrel Medina, Miller, Morales and O'Hoppe was the offer for Bryant AND Kimbrel when Craig's value was sky-high last summer, but O'Hoppe alone for back-up catcher would probably be the extent of it. Marchan was also mentioned a ton before, and Dominguez (reliever)?

I'm not sure what it was. You would have thought the two season series would have raised some warning flags or sirens at 35th & Shields. Maybe because the Astros were a .500ish team for 60 odd games in 2020 before turning it on into the post-season? No Verlander? I can't figure it out. You could go up and down the day to day line-ups and know we were going to be in for a world of hurt, particular Lynn. The Astros' veteran hitters were nightmare match-ups for guys like Rodon and Cease, because they were so patient and largely didn't swing at pitches outside of the zone. Maybe having some pressure from the Twins and Tigers and Indians' pitching will keep the Sox front office and coaching staff more honest this time around? That and the fact that the Blue Jays, Mariners, Twins, Tigers and Rangers should be MUCH better than they were last season. And that still leaves the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Astros to deal with.

I feel a Hawkism coming on, "... but when you do it."

Therein lies the problem....sinker-ballers, pitch to contact guys favor plus infield defense (and Harrison is going to be below average, around Madrigal last two years) and strikeout guys usually yield a lot of fly balls as well by elevating pitches up in the zone. A conundrum. Hard to take advantage of both, because those same strikeout guys like Cease and Rodon pitched well elevated pitch counts, which usually led to early bullpen usage.

By that argument, we REALLY need more high strikeout pitchers to eliminate our defense from coming into play as much as possible...if they are bound and determined to put a below average fielding team out there all season long. (Only course, the opposite style pitcher, Tepera, was our best in the postseason.)

Couldn't you make the exact same argument about why nobody seems Kimbrel as being worth $16 million, either? Yes, totally different contracts, but it all comes down to value and opportunity cost.

WBWF?

You can win the AL Central doing that. The struggles of Leury and Sheets out there suggest the playoffs are a totally different animal.

Not the 2013-17 Royals emphasizing the bullpen? Also, no pitching interventions have ever worked at Coors, starting with the Mark Hampton contract...as well as that pitcher who died in his StL hotel room. In the end, they believed relief pitching might be the successful approach compared to overpaying for FA starters who would see ERAs increase by 1.5ish per game.

But that's where we can get into an interesting debate comparing 2020 Colome and 2021 Hendriks, for example, with fWAR (versus save conversion percentage, inherited runners scored, etc). At the simplest levels, you would favor Colome in a number of top line categories, yet no baseball GM would actually prefer him fir 2022 unless they ran an Indians or Rays budget.