caulfield12

Kansas and Texas are more interesting (at least so far) than I would have thought. North Carolina and Ohio looking like strong possibilities to turn the course of the night and election...this very well might be the last election before Texas goes blue, but that's going to take hours to play out as well. Florida is a BIT of a surprise, but not really. Georgia bears watching late into the night.

Did you, per chance, work as a researcher on any of Peter Schweizer’s books...?

Except for the fact he lives there 29% of the year.

First lawsuit of the day.... And as the polls opened in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, Republicans filed a federal lawsuit that took aim at how election officials in Democratic-leaning Montgomery County handled absentee ballots that arrived before Election Day. The plaintiffs allege officials in this suburban Philadelphia county conducted "pre-canvassing" of ballots before 7 a.m. ET Tuesday and allowed people to fix perceived defects in their ballots. The Republicans want any changed ballots set aside. cnn.com

Spalding went to Trump by 5.7% in 2016, fwiw. All three GA key races will be tight. Obama wouldn’t have been there last night for no reason. Handel will get creamed. ATL suburbs hemorrhaging votes that were former GOP, like Gingrich’s old district.

Florida will be the obvious repercussion over PR and Covid (seniors splitting) where Trump will have nobody but himself to blame in retrospect...all he had to do was hand out relief supplies like a decent, conscientious human being with an ounce of empathy.

When will it be limited for corporations and the Top 1%? Why should Bezos, Buffett, Gates and Zuck pay taxes at a rate of only 60-65% of the rate charged to their administrative assistants earning just $50,000 per year.....due to capital gains being fixed so low due to lobbyists?

When 65-70% of economic activity is generated from/by blue states and 65% of Federal government spending is reallocated to those red states, like Kentucky, for example...something is radically wrong. How could anyone argue that’s fair or equitable? Or that not even 1/3rd of Americans believe a woman’s right to get an abortion should be limited in the first two trimesters...and it certainly doesn’t make any sense when fewer and fewer people believe in God or go to church each year, but we’re going to set the clock back 40 years because of 87,000 votes in PA, MI, and WI four years ago? Or that those same 87,000 voters are going to potentially throw 20,000,000+ people off their health insurance in the middle of a pandemic?

And that lasted all of two years under Obama. Cue Tea Party. Cue "balanced budget/austerity policies" (continue to starve the government to death by nicks and cuts, only spending increases are for the military) Cue obstructionism (Mitch McConnell) at every turn. Forget working together with the other party, that only gets you primaried out of power altogether by the radical wings of both the Democratic Party and the GOP. There's actually an incentive built into the system NOT to compromise or meet the middle to come to an agreement. Let's not forget that even with all three entities of the same party, it still came down to one or two votes for Obamacare, because the entire GOP turned against a healthcare policy that was more conservative than Mitt Romney's own program in Massachusetts that was relatively well received on both sides of the political aisle. Because...Obama.

In two key states that President-elect Donald Trump won, his margin of victory was smaller than the total number of votes for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. In Michigan, Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by 10,704 votes, while Stein got 51,463 votes, according to current totals on the state’s official website. And in Wisconsin, Trump’s margin over Clinton was 22,177, while Stein garnered 31,006 votes. In Pennsylvania, meanwhile, Stein’s total of 49,485 votes was just slightly smaller than Trump’s victory margin of 67,416 votes, according to the state’s latest numbers. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/308353-trump-won-by-smaller-margin-than-stein-votes-in-all-three That's without even taking Gary Johnson into consideration... That said, a number of political scientists are convinced that George HW Bush had at least a 50/50 chance of knocking off a Bill Clinton campaign wracked with scandals if you took Perot out of that race. https://www.wsj.com/articles/did-perot-spoil-1992-election-for-bush-its-complicated-11562714375

You can add Bernie Sanders. The problem is WHAT THE HELL IS TRUMP's ACTUAL PLAN for a second term? He doesn't have one. He simply wants to hold onto power, out of ego and also an increasing fear of prosecution/investigations post-presidency. Finally, the fact that the Trump brand is so over-leveraged and he owes hundreds of millions of dollars to foreign banks...it's quite obvious personal motivations are overriding what's good for the greatest number of Americans. Between COVID-19 response and the sheer idiocy of trying to kick 20+ million Americans off Obamacare in the midst of a pandemic and put them without health insurance and a job into the pre-existing condition category now with precisely NO PLAN WHATSOEVER to replace Obamacare, anyone who's working poor/middle or lower middle class/dependent on Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid would be insane to vote for this guy. Who in God's name thinks THAT is a good idea? I can't think of a single Republican politician in the 1950's, 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's or even early 2000's (compassionate conservatism under GW Bush) who would have agreed with such folly.

For the record, Obama won 54% of the Catholic vote in 2008. The collision of peace and social justice, the Golden Rule aspects of Christianity (how we treat the poor in society) versus The Prosperity Gospels, capital punishment/abortion/homosexuality focus represented by the extreme right wing of religious/evangelical/fundamentalist voters. Impossible to reconcile the two sides, pretty much...so people pick and choose like they're ordering at a McDonald's instead. Just like they completely overlook every single aspect of Trump's personal life (divorces, affairs, assault claims by 25ish women, lack of interest in attending church or following the Bible except for using it as a prop like in ELMER GANTRY) and his policies that benefit themselves or their personal interests in some way, shape or form. Hypocrisy doesn't even exist as a word in American lexicon because there's just no longer any shame (see Merrick Garland positions in 2016 versus GOP "twisting oneself into a pretzel while smirking" quotes from 2020 on ACB.)

This is the main reason I want Buttigieg to win someday.....to consistently confound Fox News reporters/questioners, evangelicals and especially those who can't reconcile homosexuality with religion and want to "cure" gay people. He knows the Bible and faith better than 95% of those in the GOP, except for those extreme examples like Pence. He can certainly run rings around anyone in the Democratic Party already.

Eg., Biden “will destroy your protections for pre-existing conditions” “The Biden plan would destroy Social Security” Biden will “decimate Medicare” “They want to … confiscate your guns” “They now want to abolish our police departments” “They want to abolish our prisons” “Abolish immigration detention. No more detention” Biden “is even talking about taking the wall down” Biden will “abolish fracking” Democrats “want to shut your churches down, permanently” Biden and Democrats want to “drive God from the public square” No more Christmas! I saved Christmas! They want to take away your hot water heaters and even your ability to flush the toilet... Biden will “ban school choice, charter schools” “No windows” “Cows are out. No more hamburgers." https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2020/donald-trumps-long-false-list-of-things-joe-biden-would-ban-abolish-or-destroy/

He also quoted from Colossians/Corinthians and pronounced it incorrectly, and then said TWO CORINTHIANS, instead of SECOND. Don't take a page out of Donald Trump's holy book. The Republican presidential candidate who has preached about how much he loves the Bible butchered the Book of Proverbs and nearly invented his own scripture in an interview Wednesday. "There's so many things that you can learn from it," Trump said in an exclusive sit-down with the Christian Broadcasting Network from his California golf course. "Proverbs, the chapter 'never bend to envy.' I've had that thing all of my life where people are bending to envy." https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/donald-trump-butchers-bible-quotes-non-existent-verse-article-1.2364282

If qAnon is perceived by the 70% in the center to be the antithesis but moral equivalent of BLM and Antifa, the US is in more trouble than I previously thought. "Both sides" brings the country closer and closer to pulling apart at the seams. But who could be against Trump as a Christ~like symbol or FOR pedophiles?

"Before we proceed further, a short philosophical note. I hate it when people use phrases — to be fair, we often use phrases like these ourselves! — such as “Nate Silver is giving Biden a 90 percent chance” or “FiveThirtyEight still gives Trump a 10 percent chance.” We aren’t giving anybody anything. Instead, as former FiveThirtyEight politics host Jody Avrigan puts it, what we’re doing is “mapping uncertainty.” In other words, if Biden leads by about 9 points in national polls, 8 points in Wisconsin, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 2 points in Florida, etc., how does that translate into a probability of victory? That’s what our model is trying to figure out." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/

Trump has to take Iowa, NC, PA, FL and AZ to win. Run the table. Odds of that would seem to be something like 1/32...although 1/16 still seems more realistic. Vegas is still giving 30~35% odds on Trump. But 538.com and the Iowa Presidential Stock Market seem to be better indicators. https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/

Can pols like Hogan, Kasich/DeWine and Baker survive primaries, is the question...governing from centrist positions is always going to be challenging from a motivational and fundraising perspective with so much polarization on the right and left wings.

Iowa seems to be trending away from Dems in both key races (Ernst vs. Greenfield). The Senate is is likely going to be 49-51/50-50/51-49. Assuming a Biden win, that’s not much breathing room considering Manchin. North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Arizona...could seemingly go in any direction. Then you have Minnesota, Georgia, Texas. I would have assumed NV and then those single districts in NE and Maine to Biden, but who really knows. The record voting totals came when Biden was way out in front. If he’s also in the lead election night but in-person voters, because of, let’s say a combination of weather and Covid fears, come out 2 or 3 to 1 for Trump, it possibly gets really interesting...especially with PA and North Carolina and other states counting late into the week, if not over the following weekend. There will be so many suits and countersuits heads will be spinning. Comes down to PA and WI again. MI is probably out of reach for Trump at this point. Regardless of the outcome, imagine 20+ million losing ObamaCare coverage for preexisting conditions thrown into the middle of that mess, and a re-elected Trump not caring one iota and a 6-3 Supreme Court for another decade? Then you would really start to see a number of states seriously considering separation from the US. over climate change, Covid, abortion rights, etc.

I suppose if there’s any argument, it’s that the Bochy/Giants’ style of dominant pitching, fundamentals/defense, role players/overachieving veterans and just enough offense to carry them is pretty much the opposite of the way our team is currently constituted. If this happened a year ago with RR booted, we’d have both Bochy and $80-90 million left on Bumgarner’s contract for the Sox...instead of Keuchel. Guess that’s one positive.

Sure, if you make it Luis Robert's extension, Moncada's and perhaps being able to re-sign Giolito as well (being the financial tradeoff where all that money was reallocated.) That said, if you looked at 2019 in isolation, clearly from every possible perspective, Moncada was better. In 2020, Machado was clearly the impact player you wanted on your roster. We'll see what a full 2021 season (crosses fingers) actually holds for Moncada's hopefully full recovery (at least as a hitter.) Neither hate nor like the move, but it's entirely predictable for those who've followed LaRussa and Reinsdorf over the years. Would love to hear what Harrelson and KW are thinking about it today, we know it wasn't Hahn's choice. All that said, it will be quite obvious the first half of the season if the game has passed him by, and, most importantly, if he can still command a clubhouse and gain the respect of the players without alienating Anderson and the Latin American players. How well Abreu, Anderson and Keuchel/Giolito accept this management change will go a long ways towards deciding the fate of our competitive window. It's likely another name like Maddon or Cora or Hinch becomes more palatable a year from now if things don't work out. Right now, we're currently the #5 ranked team in the very early off-season. Will we still be a Top 5 team the day LaRussa is no longer the manager, that's the biggest question. A World Series victory/re-retirement would virtually ensure that. Right now, a championship likely going through the Dodgers/Padres if if if we can overcome the Twins/Indians first within our own division.

You’d have to think either Espada or Quatraro...

Helped make a series of terrible DBacks trades with Dave Stewart...somehow they survived for 2-3 years, and didn't completely bottom out, but some of those trades look even worse now in retrospect.

Guess Barron Trump had at least one positive COVID test but asymptomatic...another name to add to the list.