caulfield12

Biden now up by just 8,000 votes with 95% counted in Wisconsin. Double wow. Trump up now only 1.4% in Michigan with 13% left to go. Triple wow. North Carolina Trump up 1.4% with 6% left to go. Georgia margin still at 100,000+ in Trump’s favor. PA still a long way left with 36% outstanding.

Wow, Nevada’s not going to update until Friday morning. So suspense still in six states, although North Carolina changing seems the most remote possibility at the moment.

As of right now 244 Biden Adding NV 231 Trump Adding AK, NC Wisconsin 10 Michigan 16 PA 20 Georgia 16 Biden slight favorite according to NY Times predictive needle If he comes back and wins GA, he just needs one of the three Blue Wall states to overturn Trump leads. In the Michigan Senate race, Peters was polling way up, there’s just no way a 16 point swing is possible there. Somehow off by 1 EC vote, coming up with 537 for some reason.

Biden and HRC weren't dynamic, change candidates. They never offered an alternative that was attractive or compelling enough. Biden might still win, but playing it too safe and getting the majority of your votes for not being Trump isn't a winning strategy. It really feels like they tried to run out the clock with the lead... and Trump was totally the aggressor over the last couple of weeks and contested the election until the bitter end across the country. The Dems could have realistically run Fauci or Cuomo instead of Biden and won...the age and mental erosion charges really seemed to stick, as well. More came out to vote against Harris than for her, seemingly.

President Donald Trump railed against the Supreme Court on Monday for its decision to allow an extended count of Pennsylvania mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day, tweeting that doing so would lead to violent unrest in the country.

From a financial/economic standpoint, Covid-19, Obamacare, etc. Trump will have no solutions or plans, limited financial flexibility in terms of a divided Congress and $30+ trillion in debt and we'll see if the Senate is 49-51/50-50/51-49. Manchin could likely give Trump another vote. One could argue that four more years of Trump would be like the last 4 years of GW Bush. That it would tarnish the GOP brand by the end of it for another generation of voters. That said, it only took eight years, and really even just four (if you count Katrina and 2006 as the death of Bush GOPism) before the Tea Party resurgence.

205 to 112 Biden Nevada 6 (Biden) Hawaii 4 (Biden) Maine 4/split (1 to Biden?) Arizona 11 Wisconsin 10 Michigan 16 Pennsylvania 20 Minnesota 10 Iowa 6 Nebraska (1?) NV/Hawaii/Minnesota gets you to 225 65 more votes out there

Just like everyone is "burned out" from Covid-19...the same thing is happening here with the election, really need a shocking announcement that changes the direction of the race yet again. Kind of feel like a malaise is setting in. It certainly is setting up to be an election that drags into the next 2-3 days at a bare minimum.

And I totally forgot to add in Hawaii's 4. So there's still at least 6 other possible votes out there for Biden, and Maine's weird situation (4 total, 1 likely to Biden, at least).

Yes, I know the late-breaking polls were all going in the direction of Trump and Ernst. Maybe viewing it through rose-colored glasses, but Iowa always seems to surprise in both caucuses and the Presidential races. We shall see if that trend continues, with MN/WI flipping as well as bordering states.

For what it's worth, the PA mail-in/absentee ballots (first or initial results announcement) was supposed to be dumped altogether at 11 p.m. EST according to their election officials.

Arizona update hasn't changed in what seems like 30 minutes after originally showing up with such a high percentage already in...also, looks like Georgia is going to join the crowd with WI/MI/PA of counting into the night and subsequent days.

Right now, looks like you gain AZ (Kelly), maybe Iowa (Greenfield over Ernst), Bullock/Daines and Collins/Gideon races just have no idea how to call them. Hickenlooper over Gardner the only flip for sure and in the books so far. Cunningham's scandal might be the tipping point there in NC, Cooper wins governorship but perhaps Trump the state overall by a few points. Very easily ends up 50/50 tie in the Senate the way things are looking right now.

All those farm subsidies and Christian fundamentalists holding strong in western part of state I guess...it's crazy a state that voted twice for Obama (including caucuses) voted for Trump last time at 8-9% or whatever the final tally turned out to be.

If Biden/Cunningham both lose in NC, that makes it increasingly unlikely that you flip the Senate. Graham already won quite easily in SC, despite being in a race with record-setting fundraising for Harrison. Same with Ossoff in GA, KY for McGrath, spending doesn't equate to victory (or Ted Cruz's Senate race last cycle),

If you substitute Iowa's 6 for let's say Michigan's 16... And Biden wins AZ/WI/PA... That gets you to 268... Wisconsin is already closing the gap, down to Trump still up 1.7% with 35% reporting.

And that +25% for Biden in Minnesota....that has to have some correlation at least with how WI eventually goes.

You add in CA, OR, WA, NV, you get to Biden 221. WI/MI/PA=46 That's 267 Not counting Arizona. Not counting Iowa. Not counting 2 from ME/NE that could go either way.

I haven't sat down to calculate the numbers, but doesn't Biden still win with WI/MI/PA and then Arizona? Or he still needs ME and NE single electors?

We still have 90-100,000,000 votes to come in...granted, a lot of them will be from California and late.

It's pretty rare over the last 20-30 years that they call a state too early and then have to take it back. Maybe 2-3% probability, at most.

Well, one thing's for sure...Trumpism hasn't clearly been repudiated.

Have this new block forming with TX, NM, MO (unlikely), possibly AZ, Colorado, KS....not sure what the heck it would be called. If Iowa goes to Biden, it would connect the US from north to south, going through Minnesota/WI to the border.

Many news outlets are already giving VA to Biden...

Not really, because Trump would still have to win PA, NC and Ohio....Biden only had to hold the Blue Wall and take either Iowa, Ohio, NC, Georgia, Florida (this is looking increasingly unlikely), AZ or Texas.