caulfield12

Sure, the last couple of months....but through the first half of the season, he and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., were struggling mightily, compared to, let's say, Peter Alonso and Tatis.

Can they get out of that contract?

He's the most important weapon in the entire organization after Yelich and perhaps Hiura (cost-control). It's going to take a boatload of talent...I'm sure Collins and Stiever alone wouldn't get it done. Equally sure that Vaughn, Collins and Stiever risks an overpay and the fact that he's a significant risk for injury considering how heavily he's been used in the last 2-3 seasons.

Here's the obvious problem with looking down on the likes of Kimbrel, Diaz and Jansen. Not much to choose from until after 2021, and there's many red flags already with that group, for a variety of reasons. Seems that between Rodon, Dunning, Stiever, Hamilton, Burdi and perhaps Lopez, the options are more likely to come internally rather than buying at top of the free agency class prices. Kimbrel's the obvious poster child for that, especially not getting him during spring training...coming off some anxious moments in the 2018 post-season, it would have been much better to get him back out there in February of 2020 instead of giving him months and months to dwell on it. Free Agents 2020-21 Relievers: Blake Treinen, Alex Colome, Andrew Miller (vesting option) 2021-22 Relievers: Kenley Jansen, Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia, Corey Knebel, Archie Bradley, Raisel Iglesias, Roberto Osuna, Zack Britton (club option) 2022-23: Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Nola (club option), Luis Severino (club option), Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Diaz, Sale (opt-out), deGrom (opt-out) 2023-24: Machado (opt-out), José Ramírez, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins, Blake Snell, Josh Hader

I didn't say the Cubs would take both. "and/or" depending on Cubs' interest. Nobody actually WANTS Herrera. So simply sell higher on Colome and get more money back... sell lower on Herrera. Not even sure the Cubs would buy into Colome as their closer to replace Kimbrel. In the end, the Cubs would still have to send a ton of money to the Sox to make it interesting enough. They're better off hoping for a rebound, just like they should hold onto Bryant at least until the ASB. Colome for Kimbrel plus X amount of money would be or could be interesting for both teams. But not without risk.

In the same way trading Borchard for Thornton worked out. Kimbrel and Herrera get fresh starts with new teams, Cubs get rid of some of their payroll problem. It doesn't matter, Hahn is not going to be perceived as helping the Cubs, and Epstein would look like he got snookered if Kimbrel rebounded, especially with money going to the Sox as well. In general, we should sell high on Colome and Kimbrel's the perfect buy low candidate depending on how much the Cubs will send along with him. Sure, there's risk, just like iit's possible or even likely Colome and Bummer regress and Herrera never returns to form. That's undoubtedly one of the most volatile parts of this team and their intentions to contend this season. Does anyone believe in Herrera getting key 7th and 8th inning outs in the heart of a real pennant race? He couldn't even execute when there wasn't any legitimate pressure, other than pride.

He's not a run-first style of QB, so doesn't that alleviate SOME of concern? Is this at all similar to the Greg Oden situation...or that was more about his feet as well?

Right, conversely, things went so poorly for the Cubs with that deal last year...they almost have to go all-in on keeping him, simply because there aren't many other options on the market and they've already jettisoned so much of their previous two bullpens that depth is lacking. They have to hope for the second year rebound, since it seems nearly every pitcher waiting until mid-season to start has been victimized by that decision. I guess I could see trading Colome and/or Herrera for Kimbrel...with money coming back to the White Sox, the good 'ol change of scenery trade. But that's highly unlikely.

That "top 8" includes some of these smartest teams in baseball.

Sure, Edwin Diaz and Kimbrel. But all three guys would amount to substantial risks in different ways. Probably not much worse than giving Hudson $10~12 million, depending on what else we get back.

Felix Diaz and Carlos Lee should be in your personal HoF, then...

This is the "curse" for GM's like Dombrowski and Epstein when they operate in "blank check" organizations. They both have a better sense for amateur/young talent than playing the top of the free agent market. It was their undoing in all four places (the exception would be DD earlier in his career with Montreal and the Marlins.) Of course, on the other hand, you have the more "cost efficient" spending approach of the Dodgers....which has led to seven consecutive playoff appearances but no World Series titles. Ultimately, giving up Torres, Cease, Jimenez and some of the other prized youngsters like Candelario and Paredes. Simultaneously, you had a failure from Schwarber, Almora, Russell, Soler, Happ, etc., to fill in as that next generation of homegrown stars to adequately supplement the core.

Mid to late first round. The premium for legit QB’s and consequences for not having one are just way too high. Everyone keeps bringing up Bo Jackson and avascular necrosis, but that’s not the case here.

Probably closer to $178-180 million with Boston subsidy but this kind of move was always a deadline one for the Sox, depending on their place in the standings. Alex Rios claim is last similar situation, but they won’t get Betts, too.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/2013-schedule-scores.shtml This is close to what we should be expecting, 85-87 wins. The Tigers and Indians won 93 and 92 that year, in 2013. The Twins should be in the low 90’s or high 80’s. Jury’s still out on CLE, depending on the ultimate fate of Lindor and Clevinger.

Madrigal’s greatest gift is his speed, which Sickels notes manifests itself as “ an ideal combination of instincts, athleticism, and aggression.” He goes on to add: By all accounts, Madrigal is the type of player who would develop quickly in the minors and could likely see his path to the major leagues fast-tracked as a result. https://www.blessyouboys.com/2018/5/2/17311276/mlb-draft-2018-nick-madrigal-scouting-report-oregon-state-university-detroit-tigers

http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/34064/type/batting3 Over the last three years combined, he’s been a 679 ops hitter against LHP. Hits lefties well for one season is SSS.

Well, the only way to avoid it would have been losing Year 7 and bringing him up for OD (in which case they’d now only have him for 2020) or giving him the biggest early extension in the history of baseball, which Boras Corporation has done how many times in its lengthy history? Injuries are almost impossible to predict, as well...at least on the position player side of things.

You think it will be that easy to trade Giolito or Moncada, right before the team’s two best projected years, 2022/23? In the Cubs’ case, after the World Series season or even 2017? Their fanbase would have gone crazy. We can say it makes some sense since the Cubs’ window opened so quickly and they won it in Year 2...or the Royals getting to the World Series in Years 2&3 of their window, but Jerry Reinsdorf and his loyalty tendencies don’t seem to fit with this concept of trading a World Series hero like Konerko or Buehrle right after they won. In fact, we held onto most of that core into 2009-10-11. We did the exact opposite, other than trading Rowand.

https://www.mlb.com/news/predicting-next-10-world-series-winners 2021: Yankees over Padres Speaking of late-90s World Series rematches … The Yankees attempt to re-create their ‘90s dynasty by actually beating all the teams they beat back then: They took out Tony Gwynn's Padres in 1998. It is a very real possibility that the Yankees' best player in '21 is Gleyber Torres. Is this his Derek Jeter year when he becomes a national star? The Padres have a budding shortstop superstar of their own in Fernando Tatis Jr., who just might be an MVP by this point. 2022: Dodgers over Angels The Dodgers have to do it at some point, don’t they? By this point, Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger may be leading them, and Clayton Kershaw will be the grizzled vet finally having his big postseason moment. By the way, congratulations to Mike Trout, whose team has finally become good enough around him to succeed in the postseason. Wouldn’t a Fall Classic be truly amazing if it had Trout in it? 2023: Braves over White Sox The Braves, despite all their postseason appearances, haven’t won a World Series since 1995, but they barely sneak under the 30-year drought mark with the first championship for Ronald Acuña Jr., one of those players whose talents are so abundant that his career will feel incomplete if he never gets one. By this point, he should be surrounded with pitching, and his contract, if you can believe this, runs through 2026. The White Sox may well be dominating the AL Central by this point: All their young talent is going to mature and grow old together. 2024: Blue Jays over Dodgers Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be 25 years old in October 2024, right in his prime, and all his fellow “Juniors” -- Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio -- will be ready to take over the AL East. (Until the Yankees reload again.) The Dodgers are as likely as any team in the NL, and maybe in baseball, to be competitive every year of this decade. As a frame of reference, by the way: 2024 is the first season the Tigers won’t be paying Miguel Cabrera. Yankees over Braves in 2020, fwiw.

I think it’s fair to say 3 1/2, since Cherington road the coattails of the team Epstein basically put into place...although there were a number of free agent moves that offseason that all worked out well and put them over the top.

Well, yeah....he went from a 7 fWAR player over three seasons down to a mid 3’s average over the last two. He’s still worth a lot next season (projected 4.7-4.8), and the season after...but the Cubs are going to be fixated on that 6-7 fWAR return, not to mention he’s also going to make something like $25-30 million. That’s still a great price even for his diminished level of production, but trading him for prospects when you still have a lot of the core pieces in place is going to be a tough sale to Marquee subscribers. It’s not a good situation to be trading him if he loses the grievance because the perception will be the Cubs are being pressured to cut him lose, and it might be just as untenable with Boras if they win. Ricketts will be tempted to put him in his place, but that’s not the way to extract maximum value from an asset, either. Rock and a hard place.

The biggest problem is that they can't go over the luxury tax or they're hit by that 30% penalty. Which means their only options are getting the best possible return for Contreras and/or Bryant...probably Bryant, in terms of "replace-ability" in the line-up and the higher salary. Of course, the obvious problem is they can no longer push him as an MVP-caliber player unless he can put up at least 3 fWAR when the calendar turns to July. Right now, he's a diminished asset. And he's not cheap in terms of salary, either.

If you live in Chicago or you root for one of the two Chicago baseball teams you have seen two wildly different approaches to this winter. While the White Sox have had perhaps the best off-season of any team in the sport, the Cubs have regressed dramatically from their 84-win 2019 team that finished third in the NL Central division. ... "The Cubs are in a trick box. They did a terrible job locking up their young stars to deals that would have extended their window of contention," one executive said. "Yes, they got Rizzo and Starlin Castro but until Kyle Hendricks took a deal they had signed no one else long term from their core guys. Look across your city and see what Rick Hahn has been able to accomplish. He has a great young core and he has been able to sign some of his guys to outstanding deals. "The Cubs are trying to jump start their team again and while I don't blame them for asking for a ton in return for Bryant, I don't believe they are going to get it." Another believes the Cubs are in a terrible position as they launch a new TV network. Marquee Sports was supposed to infuse the franchise with a significant revenue stream to allow them to compete with all of the other financial behemoths in the industry. Next up on the extension list: Moncada/Giolito, Madrigal, Lopez/Kopech/Cease (surely they'll wait to see how this season plays out first)...same with Mazara and Rodon (the most unlikely). The tide is starting to shift, finally. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/why-cubs-theo-epstein-havent-161420818.html Also talks about how they're boxed in by Bryant's grievance not being settled, asking too much for Wilson Contreras/Bryant and also goes into why they can't trade Javier Baez.

I'm pretty sure we don't need to leave the real world to "see the world burn like The Joker" these days...