caulfield12

https://mobile.twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1069078662077665280 Now the Mets will help rebuild CLE by sending their two best prospects over for Kluber...or worse, get in a bidding war with Yankees and send an even better package.

The M’s are about to trade 2B Robinson Cano and CL Edwin Diaz to the Mets – the actual Mets – in exchange for top prospects Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, and the contracts of Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak. It’s a franchise-altering deal, one that sends off the biggest trading chip the franchise has moved in years, and one that firmly closes the door on any form of contention in the next few years. A deal this big takes time, so we’ve watched the initial speculation, counter-offers, and analysis play out publicly over several days. It’s at once fascinating and awful. The M’s are obviously desperate to move on from Cano. The question is why: it can’t purely be a cost-saving move, as with the money they’d reportedly send to New York AND by taking on Bruce and Swarzak, they don’t really save a lot, especially in the next 2-3 years. Edwin Diaz garnered a lot of attention from other clubs – how could he not? – and the M’s still seem hell-bent on packaging him with Cano. Now, I think Cano’s contract has always been overplayed. Yes, it’s a lot of money, and yes, it runs through his age-40 season, but what gets lost here is that Cano’s been productive in his time with Seattle. Yes, he missed 80 games last year, and that probably led to some of the urgency with which Jerry Dipoto shopped him this month, but people are referring to him as an albatross or simply as a cautionary tale about long contracts. No; Robinson Cano is *still* an excellent player, and will add value on the field wherever he plays next year. Is he worth his contract? He’s projected for 3 wins next season, and at ~8-9 per, that’s $24-27 million, or right in line with what he’ll get. The problem is that the M’s will be paying about half of that amount. At ~$12 M per year, Cano looks like a decent bargain, particularly in the early years. “What about his age 39-40 years?” you ask? Who cares? He’ll have provided plenty of surplus value once you account for the M’s kicking in all of that money. The M’s are building a contender, it’s just in New York. That’s not to say the deal is as disastrous as it first appeared. The M’s now get two prospects that easily slide into the front end of their top 10, and Anthony Swarzak had a brilliant 2017 before an awful 2018 turned him into a salary-matching throw-in that probably undersells him a bit. I’m not sure I love this deal, especially without knowing what, say, Philadelphia would’ve traded for Diaz alone, but I’m just struck by the weirdness of it. What about Cano’s personality or what about the clubhouse’s demeanor in the 2nd half did Dipoto attribute to Cano? For a year or two, the M’s had been doing everything they could to counter the old narrative that Cano was selfish. We’ve seen him work with plenty of young hitters, going back to Justin Smoak, Ketel Marte, Jean Segura, and then youngsters this season. We watched the loose, laughter-filled competitions that Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano would organize for the M’s in the spring, and as much as anything, that camaraderie was singled out as a reason why the M’s were blowing their pythagorean record out of the water in early 2018. Not long after, the M’s are apparently deciding to pay handsomely to be rid of one of the architects of that culture. Meanwhile, the Mets, long seen as loathe to spend money following the Bernie Madoff-fueled losses their owners absorbed, will take on a long-term contract right when they’re trying to extend Cy Young winner Jacob de Grom. Both teams can probably come out of this claiming victory. The Mets get a ton of money to go along with their new obligations, they get one of the best relievers alive (who happens to be earning next to nothing), AND they keep their top prospects in Peter Alonso and SS Andres Gimenez. The M’s can say they get future flexibility to add star-level players AND get two very good prospects for a system that needs them desperately. They recognize that what the M’s of 2019-2020 need *least* are shut-down relievers, so better to move them now. That approach also led to today’s rather more modest deal. The M’s are sending Alex Colome to the White Sox in exchange for catcher Omar Narvaez. At first glance, this is simply great for the M’s. The M’s do not need a great set-up man or closer in Colome, and I remain somewhat skeptical that he’s great at all. He’s had a FIP in the mid 3’s 3 of the past 4 years, and he hasn’t shown a *persistent* ability to strand runners the way he did in 2016. He’s a good player, but not a transcendent one – not when the average reliever has a K% just 2 percentage points behind Colome’s 2018 mark. Narvaez is an intriguing guy. He’s 26, bats lefty, and draws a ton of walks. Coming into 2018, that was essentially the sum total of his attributes: he had zero power, and hadn’t shown consistent hitting ability in the minors beyond a good walk rate and low Ks. Worse, he didn’t have a classic catcher’s arm, a Zunino-grade cannon to control the running game – he was a bat-first catcher with half a bat. But 2018 showed a lot of promise. Narvaez hit 9 HRs, tripling the 3 he hit in 2016-17 combined. There’s a bit more whiffs now, but a high walk rate and mediocre power is pretty darn good, especially at that position. ussmariner.com

Relievers – The Braves will be very active in the free agency and trade front for relievers. Craig Kimbrel will be the top target, which would push Arodys Vizcaino to 8th inning and AJ Minter to 7th inning. A dominant closer will be the primary target for this core.

Well, technically Haniger is still 27, but fine. He will be 28 before next season. He has also progressed from 0.3 to 2.5 to 4.6 in terms of his fWAR values, so nobody knows exactly what his real value is, away from Safeco. As far as I know, he's also been fairly consistent with his defensive performance, despite playing a corner...that still has a lot of value (see Heyward or Alex Gordon). I'll concede the fact that Yelich averaged a 4.1 over the 4 seasons prior to going over to Milwaukee. Yelich turned 26 before the 2018 season...so there's really TWO years between them, not the three you quoted. Subtle difference, but still not unimportant. Another factor is the Mariners already dumped the Cano contract...and, while they still have the Felix Hernandez and Seager deals on the books, but they don't HAVE TO SELL like the Marlins did when new ownership came in. There's nothing resembling a fire-sale at this point, because they've already dealt Paxton/Diaz as well, but they have to balance that retooling with the fact that they have to put a decent team out on the field unless they're going to totally rebuild (which that market might not tolerate, since it has been 17 years since their last playoff appearance, the longest streak in baseball.)

Referring to Haniger, not subsidizing a Seager contract takeover.

I mean, even for the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and Cubs...the days of payrolls well above the luxury tax threshold are a thing of the past. The Yankees under George Steinbrenner were pretty much the only team in professional baseball where the unique concept of having payroll limitations didn't mean a thing.

Or how about "truce"? Dow Futures (E-Mini Dow 2018, YMZ8) up almost 500 points, market should open at around 26,000...or 3.7% off the all-time high of around 27,000.

Pretty incredible for Segura's worth to have accelerated to a Top 10-15 prospect in all of baseball when he could have been claimed by any MLB team about 3 years ago.

Fine, trade war takes a temporary break/breather, in terms of MARKET PERCEPTIONS. Another writer said "trade war drifts into 2019" if you prefer that take. As far as NAFTA II, if they can even agree on a name for it (USMCA is Trump's preference)...it's definitely going to be blocked by the new House in January unless there are some significant changes. That's not to mention the fact that Mexico just swore in a more left-wing politician as president, so it remains to be seen (he was supposedly going to honor that agreement). We're theoretically going to be able to sell more dairy products to Canada, but one of the stickiest remaining issues is the steel/aluminum tariffs between the 3 countries.

Well, if you sign Pollock to 4 years, you're blocking Robert in the OF (not to mentioning making those other 4 outfield prospects trade bait), or you'd simply have to move Jimenez to DH in order to accommodate an OF comprised of Pollock, Robert and Harper. A nice (albeit expensive) problem to have. If Pollock can find anyone to sign him for 4 or 5 years, I think the White Sox won't chase that. 3 would probably be their limit on a player with so much risk attached, or 3 and some type of mutually-agreed upon option/buyout. Coming off another injury-plagued season, he might prefer to go with a shorter-term deal at a higher average per year, but there's risk for him and his agent either way. The lack of quality OF options available definitely works in his favor, at least in this particular market.

Haniger is going to be in roughly the same territory as Christian Yelich in terms of trade value, maybe a notch or two below, but he's going to cost two of our better prospects not named Jimenez...and Jimenez would be the first ask because he would essentially be replacing Nelson Cruz and dirt cheap. Robert and Cease, Cease and Madrigal (local tie-in from Oregon State days)...that's a TON of potential to give up.

The idea of Domingo Santana makes SENSE, Yolmer and Nate would seemingly be more valuable to the Brewers than many other teams...like Avi, there's a huge amount of variance in his fWAR numbers the last three seasons (0.3, 3.3, 0.7). He's actually the same age (26) as Garcia as well. The MAIN selling point would be arbitration control through 2021. We could do worse, for sure, he fits the timeline...has upside, and we've made quite a few deals with MIL recently, such as Swarzak/Saladino/Soria/Cedeno, etc. Not to mention that we're unarguably better off helping a rival of the Cubs, right?

Of course, the irony of that is almost no one believes Collins can catch 120+ games and rank as the fifth best offensive catcher without being a bottom 10% ranked catcher defensively. We shall see.

At least he didn’t call for App State to be there...lol...he had that ESPN conference championship call, better than Boise in the snow, I suppose. If CFU can somehow manage to knock off LSU or Georgia in a bowl game without Milton, and a new coach in Josh Heupel, Benetti might have a point. Pat Forde argues for a Bama/UGA rematch. No thanks. https://sports.yahoo.com/yes-alabama-georgia-belong-college-football-playoff-013638376.html

Brantley is more the fear of Melky Cabrera, Part Deux. Diesnt matter that they’re totally different players, it’s just the risk of going for a McCutcheon/Adam Jones/Markakis and being a year or two (or three) late and still paying them $14-18 million per season. Whereas Pollock and Brantley have more upside (age-wise) but also elevated injury risk. There’s no doubt we need to spread out the risk somewhat with players who are in that 2-4 fWAR category...obviously, selecting the right ones. Taking a key contributor away from a main rival and adding to your own team certainly makes sense, though.

Yeah, he’d have to rank up there just a notch below Kimbrel, but not by much. The main unknown is how he’d perform in a playoff atmosphere. The pressure in NY, Boston or Philly is a different beast altogether.

The only difference is almost nobody expected the White Sox to be leading for most of the first five weeks of the 2016 season...it was a bid to stay in the race, rather than trying to become relevant again after the huge success of 2015 and then falling off a cliff again (Cespedes, Harvey and Wright falling apart simultaneously didn’t help much.)

https://bossip.com/886388/athletes-hoes-did-detroit-tigers-baller-prince-fielder-get-traded-because-his-teammate-chopped-down-his-wife/ Yeah, it was Cabrera who actually was injured in the clubhouse fight related to this whole situation, then Fielder was dumped on the Rangers. Avi’s name was also spelled incorrectly in that link.

Garbage player and significant regression risk at $20 million per year through age 40/41 are two quite different things. Part of it’s marketing-related for the Mets, they’re simply fighting to stay relevant in that NYC market and also squaring up against the long odds the Braves and Phillies represent in the future. This sorta feels like the kind of move the White Sox would have made from 2014-2016...also not unlike the move for Thome in 2006.

The Twins kept Max Kepler (1.2, 1.4 and 2.6) over Palka, as well as Grossman, Sano and Mauer. Of course, most glaringly, Morrison pulled a LaRoche and went from 3.2 to -0.7, and now Grossman is finally gone (0.8, 0.5, 0.7). Arguably, they made the wrong call there, but they weren’t going anywhere without Buxton, Berrios and Sano being stars, with Rosario trailing not too far behind. Kepler is simply a better version of Avi Garcia. But I wouldn’t bet a house on him being a true 3ish fWAR OF.

As Hawk always says, baseball is a game of adjustments. Whether he can follow it up is the big question, which could just as easily be Delmonico/Davidson/Leury or Giolito In 2018, or Omar Narvaez on the offensive side this year. You put any hitter in a stadium like Oakland, Seattle or Minnesota, their numbers are likely to fall off significantly (unless you’re Marcus Semien, apparently.)

In the end, the failure rate for #75-150 ranked prospects isn’t all that different, especially compared to the top 30 or top 50. Many prospects who put up great AA numbers or even cup of tea (see Delmonico two seasons ago) late season MLB numbers can sustain it. Half of that trade always was about dumping Peavy’s salary, rather than getting back a can’t miss guy. From the beginning, mini-Miggy was always a false comp because it was mostly a physical comparison (unless you go by ballpark gossip/rumors, where he was the Dave Martinez to Miggy’s Ryno.)

2013 MILB #74, Baseball America (#2 DET)

https://www.mlb.com/news/list-of-non-tendered-players-new-free-agents/c-301309678 Seems more likely they find an extra starter like Shelby Miller from this list...Bush peaked three years ago, depends on the money.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25423798/yan-gomes-gives-nationals-upgrade-catcher