caulfield12

White Sox: Yasmani Grandal, C Even closer to Yonder Alonso than Yonder's brother-in-law, Machado, Grandal is a more than adequate consolation prize if Machado and Harper, as predicted, go elsewhere. https://www.mlb.com/rangers/news/one-player-for-every-team-on-christmas-day/c-302129216

Will turn 29 at the end of the 2020 season, before hitting free agency. Will he still get a 10 year or more deal, assuming he stays healthy? $400 million? $450? $500 million? 2019-20 offseason still seems like it might be the best time to go for it, if Harper and Machado (less likely) sign 4 year deals with the Dodgers and Yankees to put them back out on the market at age 30. It gives us the entire 2019 season to figure out who to keep and who to trade...and you’re not forcing Harper or Machado onto the rebuilding roster when they don’t really want to be there until 2020 or 2021 (and feel more assured about the direction of the franchise.) Next year, the headliners are Arenado, Rendon, Bogaerts, Goldschmidt, JD Martinez (will be 32 at end of next season, opt out a good bet if he repeats), Sale, Cole, Bumgarner, Verlander, Wheeler, Porcello...feels like a lot more options that we would be targeting long-term if they were available right now, yes? Out of all the remaining players on the current market, AJ Pollock was the only other long-term guy, and age/injury risk seemingly prevent that type of move. Donaldson on a short term deal at $20 million never was going to fit. We can argue endlessly about Moustakas, I guess. Yasmani Grandal also makes sense unless you’re a huge believer in Collins, because there won’t be any premium options (FA) available without sacrificing our minor leaguers in trade (see Realmuto asking price.)

https://sports.yahoo.com/bryce-harper-manny-machado-reportedly-dont-like-idea-playing-philadelphia-024356728.html Phillies out, but Dodgers/Yankees still in driver’s seat? “But the other choice, particularly for Harper, is fascinating,” Sherman writes. Because even if the Dodgers refuse to offer the mega-deal, landing there for four-ish years is what is best for Harper and — not that this should matter to the slugger — the game. “ This suggestion would not have seemed like a realistic possibility a couple years ago. Given how the free agent landscape has changed the last two winters though, perhaps anything really is possible here. The biggest question coming into this winter was how high would the offers to Bryce Harper and Manny Machado be. Now it might actually come down to just how much money one or both are willing to give up in order to reach a preferred destination.

Well, nothing can go wrong when 1600 Pennsylvania is openly touting this as a buying opportunity...and, as far as the thread, the FIRE movement’s probably in some trouble at the moment. The Dow went up so quickly, the 22-23,000 range is closer to where it belongs on a historical basis, considering factors like P/E ratios, interest rates, inflation, GDP growth. Of course, China, Europe and America all being in near chaos probably doesn’t help...can throw Brazil into the mix for good measure. When they look back on this time period, the premature tax cut that didn’t find its way into the pockets of the middle class but added $1.4 trillion to the deficit will go down as one of the precipitating causes...all the stock buybacks artificially inflated the markets, along with the easy money policy that definitely had its place getting us out of 2008-09, but has pretty much run its course.

Has the market for Kikuchi really sunk that low because of the injury risk/concern and reports of diminished velocity? At one point, it seems like he was heading for at least a $65-80 million contract. So this is wholly dependent on what the medical/training staff have to say, Cooper and some of the renowned Sox minor league pitching coaches, etc. Anyway, the scouting reports (including this one, this one, and this one) say Kikuchi is a fastball/slider guy who also mixes in a curveball and a changeup. A few weeks ago Jon Morosi spoke to former big leaguer Frank Herrmann about Kikuchi. Here’s what Herrmann said about playing against him in Japan: “When we have faced him, we have hit him pretty well, and that’s with a heavy left-handed lineup,” Herrmann told MLB.com. “The [velocity] and sharpness of the slider seems to be down from last year. The one positive I’ve seen from him is that is he’s becoming more than a [two-pitch] guy, which he predominantly was last season. He will now flip in a curveball early in the count and uses his changeup to guys that [are] on his fastball. Last year, there was never a need to get away from the [fastball/slider] combo. … “They all mention that his work ethic and competitiveness are top-notch,” Herrmann said. “It’s also known that he really wants to go to MLB and compete against the best.” http://riveraveblues.com/2018/11/scouting-free-agent-market-yusei-kikuchi-181208/ Very extensive write-up about signing him from a Yankees' "win now" perspective. Basically, if everything goes right, and he manages to stay healthy (which has been touch and go in recent years)...he could be a much more expensive version of Jose Quintana.

My main memories of Richard is terrible throws to 1B, his unorthodox motion, his limited time as Michigan QB and that 2008 playoff debacle against the Rays. That said, if they can't find any veteran swing-man candidate and they want to go in that direction, he couldn't be much worse than Santiago. Of course, it's probably better to audition 1 of about 15 possibilities from our minor league system, including Fulmer and Dylan Covey. The other point is that those numbers compiled in PetCo are simply not going to hold up in the American League.

Well, pretty obviously it depends on how well-placed Buehrle>Wood's sources are...it's obviously hard to know if this is referring to Manny coming close to making a decision, a move in the reliever market (Ottavino, Robertson, Herrera, Britton, Miller or Cody Allen...can't believe we'd go after Kimbrel) or simply accumulating more players/coaches/front office personnel connected to Machado.

With all the incoming SoxTalk subsidies, can we contract with the Ukrainian hacker/troll farms to create false social media rumors and further drive down the price on Machado/Harper...?

Adding Realmuto would be nuts unless they're signing Harper and/or Machado...and, even then, the amount of minor league talent it would require just can't be justified (it's going to take Cease OR Robert as headliner, at a minimum). Selling low on some of our major league players would be equally ill-advised. You also have to take into consideration it almost always takes at least 1/2 a season just for players moving from the NL to the AL to make that difficult adjustment.

Well, the bullpen this year was certainly like 2007. Where’s our Octavio Dotel?

Well, that would push out Rizzo, Baez and Contreras, for one thing. And you’d think they need one smaller deal for Hendricks, because who knows what they get from Darvish and Lester/Q are likely on the way out eventually. They really are going to have a tough choice between Baez and Bryant...they can’t afford all three. It’s all going to depend on Bryant returning to MVP form, and we know how well these 8-10 year deals typically work out when the majority of those seasons are in a player’s thirties.

LBJ (although it sounds more like a Hawkism) said, ‘Sometimes you just have to hunker down like a jackass in a hailstorm and just take it.” So that’s where we are.

Adolfo is really going to have to rake in a Jimenez way to justify that ranking...especially since he is likely to DH for most of the first half. His viability to play RF is almost completely dependent on his arm/elbow. Dunning’s going to be in that same “prove it” situation, along with Collins/Rutherford/Burdi/Hansen/Sheets.

Hopefully it doesn’t involve more fines from the FCC.

It’s probably not helping that lots of season ticket holders have lost 15-25% of their net worth in the last month. But the front office put themselves front and center...failing now is close to unacceptable. That will leave Opening Day, the Jimenez (and Cease) debuts and the #3 draft pick announcement as the only reasons to get excited. Unless Abreu or some of the veterans go on huge tears and can attract considerable trade interest in June/July. Hope they signed that television contract on the dotted line before economic conditions deteriorate further...it’s going to be a pretty bumpy ride if we’re forced to suffer through another year of waiting on FA’s to choose the Sox.

Don’t the White Sox realize Machado beating James Shields up is pretty much non-indicative of anything...?

It doesn't quite have a final 15 minutes to fit the rest of the film, but still one of the ten best watches of the year, overall. And talk about a relatively low budget.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-cubs-could-still-play-194921605.html?bcmt=1 Pretty shocking that well over 100 comments in, not a single Cubs' fan wants to pay Harper what Boras is asking.

So then you're agreeing he had an "early" prime, or you agree that those numbers are largely irrelevant for corner outfielders who accrue most of their value defensively, especially RFers? And your argument is that we can no longer assume a player's prime should extend to his age 27~29 seasons? Or just not to Heyward...so what does that tell us about Bryant' s value? Shouldn't a player who gets most of his value offensively be more liable to fade defensively if he has peaked early from a physical standpoint? If Heyward's floor is 1 as a defender, what's Harper's peak at 1B or DH? And how could that possibly be worth $300+ million? At any rate, it's a bifurcated argument. Point 1 was whether Heyward ever had a prime. Point 2 was the idea that it was for "over the hill" contracts, which FWD suggested. So my response was that Heyward at age 29 should still be in his prime. Athletically, that's true. From an offensive standpoint, it's one of the biggest mysteries in the game. The odds aren't great of recapturing his previous form, but the physical tools are still there after these past three years. It would seem crazy to declare a hitter over the hill at 26, 27 or 28, because something else is going on beyond the normal aging curve.

So we should now expect players to peak at age 25 and 26, and decline at 27, 28 and 29? Got it!! The original argument was that he didn't even have a prime. Historically, every baseball expert has "EXPECTED/PREDICTED" ages 27-28-29 to be the three prime years (on average) for the majority of MLB players. Do you agree with that? YES/NO? (Answer one.) Obviously, it's going to retroactively seem (looking back) that he peaked at age 25 or 26 since his game has been off for the last 3 years (comparatively)...but a GM who had previously won 3 World Series titles (well, 2.5 since almost all of the players were put there by Epstein) and the GM of the Cardinals were dumb to value Heyward highly? If we look at Eaton, we would argue that he peaked at age 28, if we want to make a comparison. Or Alex Gordon, at age 30. So 29 certainly fits within that range.

What would be a team that this applies to, I can't really think of one off the top of my head...? (TEAL) Of course, when we DO produce a good defensive outfielder (Engel), he just so happens to be one of the very worst hitters in this particular generation (post-PEDs) of baseball players.

Now you're COMPLETELY changing the argument. You argued that defensive "overemphasis" in the WAR numbers overvalues corner outfielders. Somehow, the Cubs managed to win a World Series with Heyward, and the Royals with Gordon. Lots of very smart (arguably better at their jobs than Hahn) GM's pursued both in Free Agency. Wait, Rick Hahn was one of those guys chasing after Alex Gordon, wasn't he? By the TaylorStSox Theory of Corner Outfield WAR, the White Sox are sitting on top of the biggest prospect goldmine in the history of the game. All we have to do is simply convince the rest of MLB to overvalue Luis Gonzalez, Steele Walker and Chase Rutherford...because they each can play CF or a corner with "plus" level defense, making them all possible "Eaton/Heyward/Gordon Lites" and worth bundles to other teams. I'll reserve lumping Adolfo (because his defense is mostly related to his arm/elbow, could end up at DH/1B), Basabe (because there are too many question marks about his OBP/offensive game still)...but you could certainly ARGUE for adding Basabe to the "Eaton Lite" group as well. And that doesn't even count Jimenez and Robert (who will be traded over Hahn's dead body). With four and possibly five "overvalued" minor league outfielders...the White Sox should be set up to be competitive for at least a decade with all the talent they're likely to get back on the trade market, right? If we're just going to throw out totally subjective arguments (corner outfield fWAR/bWAR based more on defense than offense) without providing any type of analysis/rebuttal that's not an emotional/subjective/qualitative one, then you're going to have to eat this one. Or we can just stop arguing about WAR and go back to Greg's preferred method of analyzing players that we've used for over a century.

Are you really unable to remember the recent past? Eaton played RF for the WHITE SOX the season preceding the trade when he built up huge fWAR and bWAR numbers. A lot of it was attributable to his RF assist totals...please check the numbers, he never graded out well in CF. In fact, it was his outfield assist numbers that largely elevated his defensive rating, just like the year that Avi graded out passably in RF. If Adam Eaton didn’t put up a huge (and healthy) WAR numbers playing RIGHT FIELD (aka a corner outfield position) for the White Sox, he wouldn’t have been perceived as so valuable to Rizzo. But apparently we should now completely discount those WAR numbers because of players like Heyward, Eaton and Alex Gordon. By the way, it wasn’t only the Cubs who saw evidence of value there...the Cardinals offered Heyward a similar contract.

Then we got extremely fortunate the Nats bought into the “BS” about Adam Eaton. Or maybe not...seeing how bad Giolito has turned out so far.

Lowrie seems like one of those guys who would pick his season with the White Sox to pull a Keppinger or Bonifacio. He’s quietly been super productive, but how long can that last? Maybe we need a new thread, moves the Sox might make which would theoretically force us to throw in the towel on our fandom...