danman31

I'm making a prediction that Courtney Hawkins will start 2013 in Winston-Salem. Hitters' park for a power hitting prospect, sounds good. They did it with Ryan Sweeney.

Knights @ Durham Shirek Danks pulled after 2 PA Dash @ Lynchburg McCray Intimidators @ Hagerstown Casey Hawkins with a double in each of his first 2 AB Bristol DH: game 1 was a resumption from July 13 and they lost 6-3 Game 2 Simon Castro 2 inning rehab start. Barons PPD, Voyagers off

QUOTE (oldsox @ Aug 20, 2012 -> 02:06 PM) Baseball and I are traditionalists. I would love to get rid of the DH, but the union will not allow that. DH and the whole arbitration process sucks, bad for the game IMO. I hope they keep the September rules. I will never understand any argument relating to getting rid of the DH. It's silly to have pitchers bat.

QUOTE (hammerhead johnson @ Aug 20, 2012 -> 01:40 PM) His numbers indicate very poor plate discipline. I've followed baseball long enough to know that it probably won't work out in the majors. Sorry, fellas. I guess that life is better when you lie to yourselves. If we're talking about high school/college hitters, Kenny is the blind squirrel that has yet to find even a single nut. Deny it all you want. It's the truth. First off, he walks a lot so the numbers indicate problems with contact, not poor plate discipline. Second, Kenny doesn't do the drafting. He may provide input on the first couple picks, but it's not his responsibility to draft and develop players.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 20, 2012 -> 10:25 AM) Baseball is its own world. How many sports have two different sets of rules for who plays on a daily basis? I assume this was rhetorical, but soccer teams have similar depth in terms of youth systems and reserve teams like the minors. The manager can only choose 18 for his matchday lineup. 11 start and the manager can only pick from that 7 (or 5 in some leagues) for the subs. This would be exactly like having a 40-man roster and choosing 25 for each game that you can play.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Aug 19, 2012 -> 10:59 PM) I like Hawkins long-term potential, but at this point, Trayce not only has the potential, he also has the solid production. Like you said, his power potential is enormous. He would hit 30 HRs this year in the minors with a 162-game schedule. Plus, he has the ability to steal at least 20 bags, maybe 30, if he improves his jumps. He is arguably as talented as Hawkins, but he is way further along. Gotta go Trayce as the No. 1 in my opinion. Also walks at a pretty solid clip. On the flip side we've seen him strikeout a ton. I think that offsets his advancement. Hawkins still has the fresh slate. He hasn't really done any wrong yet because he's barely played whereas we see a serious red flag with Thompson going forward. That said, I can see preferring Thompson.

QUOTE (hammerhead johnson @ Aug 19, 2012 -> 12:29 PM) Good answer on Trayce - I just have a hard time trusting a guy who exhibits such poor plate discipline and only manages to put up an OBP north of .320 because he can leg out hits. I try not to dwell on what that could translate to in the major leagues. Combine the fact that the Sox probably don't have any top 100 prospects with Trayce's abilities and that's why he's so high within this system. He still has big upside if he keeps improving. He's the kind of prospect to get excited about, but not count on.

QUOTE (BlackBetsy @ Aug 19, 2012 -> 12:20 PM) The show is a pretty cool concept...since India has a pretty good cricket tradition, it wouldn't be a bad place to scout for good arms. Except they'd rather play cricket so what's the point?

QUOTE (hammerhead johnson @ Aug 19, 2012 -> 12:15 PM) Trayce Thompson has an .800 OPS and a batting average in the .240s (despite BABIPs over .320) between A and AA. Why are people ranking him so high? Honest question. Who would be a top 100 prospect aside from Hawkins? Because he might hit 30 HR this year, he's 21 in AA, he plays good defense in the outfield and has above average speed. His power potential is massive and really there isn't a lot of competition from within the system. Most importantly, he's shown improvement this season. I'm not sure Hawkins is a top 100 prospect yet. I doubt the Sox will have any in the top 100 unless one of the top few prospects finishes on a serious hot streak or shows well in the AFL.

Knights won 12-3; magic number 5 Barons lost 2-1 Dash lost 8-4 Intimidators lost 7-1 Voyagers @ Grand Junction Bristol won game 1 5-2 Bristol lost game 2 6-3

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 18, 2012 -> 02:12 PM) Serious reply: Beckham? Chris Sale by a long shot for me.

Big days for Trayce and Courtney as well. Great to see these guys handling promotions well.

QUOTE (QuickJones81 @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 10:33 PM) Control is a problem for Bautista, but he has a high strikeout rate, and gives up few hits. Leyer doesn't have great control either, but gives up more hits, though he does have a betterr go/ao. Hits are more damaging then walks, so that is part of what brings the two closer together. Park factor isn't directly addressed. I accounted for that by using the league level model with the theory that if you are first comparing the prospect to other peers who play in the same parks, park factor isn't as big of a player and is essentially cancelled out. Then comparing historical models across leagues I translate stats from any league up to AAA. Hits are less consistent year to year. There are many factors not in the pitcher's control with hits, defense being a big one. C'mon this is like sabermetrics 101. Most major pitching stats, like FIP for example, disregard hits. I don't see how you addressed park factor. A player's home park is the only thing that matters for that, not comparing a player against the rest of the same league. That's a massive difference. Look at anyone on the Dash. Their home OPS is 100 points higher or more than their away OPS.

My experience is that there are too many other factors for a model like that to be consistent. I'd be curious what other factors are included. Park factors for example can be extremely important on a player's season. Then you have a guy like Jose Bautista, who managed to have a high walk rate in the DSL, a league that typically does not have a lot of patient hitters. That's another league factor like you mentioned. He had major control problems in his short Bristol stint. How does he slide in just one spot behind Leyer who showed solid control with Bristol?

QUOTE (QuickJones81 @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 08:56 PM) Short actually had his best year with WS in 2010, and his year last year is the latest we have to go off of except for the few game this season. He maxes out as a role player to me, which is a testament to the state of the system. Castro has a fine walk rate, but his BAA is horrible (.317, .333, .333 in 3 AAA stints in 3 years) bringing his WHIP up too high, and he can't back it up with the strikeout rate that originally got him noticed in his younger days, which leads me to believe he will have a hard time getting out of jams at the next level. If he doesn't get promoted this year, you're looking at 25+ yr old AA pitcher. He's lost prospect status in my eyes and will max out as a call up spot starter to temporarily fill a gap due to injury. I'm a Marin fan as well, and his numbers are extremely similar to Vance. Vance gets the nod from me because he's almost a full year younger and has history as a starter, which is far more valuable. Unfortunately for us if we're going to look for talent we have to do a lot of trolling through rookie league and A. Charlotte is nearly void of any real prospects and birmingham only has about 6 guys who I have much interest in. I meant 2010, I said with WS after all. He does max out as a role player, which is exactly why he's not a well-rated prospect and shouldn't be in the top 20. Castro is already in AAA, which I said, so he wouldn't be a 25 year old AA pitcher. None of his 3 AAA stints have reached 30 innings, it's not fair to judge his career worth on short stints like that. Vance's "history" as a starter is irrelevant because he doesn't profile as a starter and won't remain one. They're just giving him more innings. I don't see how that makes him more valuable. I also think you're fundamentally viewing prospects incorrectly if you're referring to it as 'trolling through rookie league and A.' The level of a player doesn't say anything about talent by itself. In most cases it just means the player is younger. When you factor in age, talent and performance the level matters, but by itself it doesn't say a lot.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 08:54 PM) au contrare. We have signed 4 youngsters down there this year and not one has played yet. How long does it take to open a bank account in the DR? What does this post mean? NSS said they don't get attention unless they sign for big money like those 4 guys did.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 09:03 PM) The expanded roster rule is one of the dumbest rules in all of sports. Let's play by one set of roster rules for 80% of the season, but then when it gets to crunch time, let's just change it all up and let teams add extra players. /rant It's because the minor league season ends in early September. Keep in mind the Knights are going to be in the IL playoffs so they're going to run closer to mid-September or later so the Sox won't be calling up a dozen guys just because they can.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 06:50 PM) Hawkins is the only one there who has not yet done much, but there is a ton of ability there. There are several high school draftees from 2012 draft who have done much better, however. Do you mean from the White Sox draft class or from the draft in general?

Mitchell with his first AAA homer.

I can't say I agreed with much in the above post. Leyer is the only prospect of the bunch you named. Short seems fringy because of his mostly mediocre numbers throughout his career. He had one good season in 2011 with Winston-Salem. Other than that fairly average. He had a .318 OBP in AA last year, that's not good enough. I don't like jumping on the rookie ball guys yet. Remember Kevan Smith? The thing with Petricka is that you can make him a reliever where his secondary stuff is less important and his fastball can receive a velocity jump. I don't get how a guy like Castro, who has shown good walk and groundball rates in AAA, sits below a 23 year old in rookie ball (Grabe). Also, what does Kevin Vance have that another A ball reliever like Terance Marin doesn't?

QUOTE (SoxFan1 @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 01:39 PM) The atmosphere in stadiums in the US also doesn't compare at all to the atmosphere in the rest of the world at pro sporting events. The OKC Thunder are the only pro team I can think of in the US that has an absolutely nutty atmosphere during the entirety of their games. College sports.

QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Aug 16, 2012 -> 12:18 AM) ESPN was showing the laser pointers all over Howards chest as the "fans" were trying to shine it in his eyes during a free kick. Classy. In the end the US wins. Good job. Lasers in the eyes is the least of the worries for the players in Azteca. Mexico dominated the game, but was pathetic in the final third. Hernandez finally got a couple got shots, but Howard made superman saves to keep the lead. Amazing result.

Louisville @ Knights Shirek (delayed start) Tennessee @ Barons 7:05 Molina Salem @ Dash Snodgress Delmarva @ Intimidators Casey Voyagers @ Orem 8:05 Linza BriSox @ Greeneville Matos

QUOTE (GoodAsGould @ Aug 15, 2012 -> 03:03 PM) I don't think Axelrod fits into the group regardless, Santiago isn't an official prospect anymore but I think I'd have him at 4 or 5 if he was. I would argue Axelrod over Molina, but that's all. I value Santiago in the same range. QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 15, 2012 -> 03:04 PM) No Rienzo love, danman? His ERA is great for Birmingham, but his walk rate and low groundball rate worry me. He's in the next tier.

1. Hawkins 2. Thompson 3. Barnum 4. Castro 5. Johnson 6. Sanchez 7. Beck 8. Walker 9. Mitchell 10. Molina Santiago and Axelrod are no longer prospects in my eyes. They fit in this group otherwise.