chw42

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 06:34 AM) The only reason Trout didn't win in 2012 and 2013 was because his team missed the playoffs. Now that his team has the best record in baseball, I would say he is a lock to win it this year. He didn't win last year cause Cabrera had one of the best offensive seasons in the past 10 years and Cabrera won the triple crown the year before. It didn't have much of anything to do with making the playoffs, it had everything to do with Cabrera putting up offensive numbers the voters couldn't turn down. I didn't agree with Cabrera winning it in 2012, but I can't fault the voters for voting for him since he won the Triple Crown. I didn't mind him winning it last year even though Trout out-WAR'd him by quite a bit.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 10:25 AM) My guess is they keep: Marshall, Jeffery, Wilson, Holmes, Morgan, and Spurlock. With 10 practice squad spots they will hope to slide Chris Williams and Josh Bellamy through waivers and keep them both. Easier said than done though. Are they actually going to use Holmes at PR if they don't keep Williams? Holmes returned punts yesterday and looked pretty good.

QUOTE (BaconOnAStick @ Aug 28, 2014 -> 10:13 PM) Trout just doesn't have the bat. I went Felix. .950 OPS isn't good enough huh?

Mike Trout and it's really not all that close IMO. Cabrera's been awful for his standards this year. Gordon's second in the AL in WAR, but half of that is from his defense (I don't buy it). Cano, Donaldson, Seager, and Abreu are also candidates, but I don't think they can really be fairly compared to Trout.

I joined a 10 team public league on Yahoo just for fun. Those leagues are no real fun. Way too many good players left on the free agent market. My bench is absolutely stacked. There's 3 guys who would have been starters in a 12 team league on my bench (Spiller, Decker, Kaepernick).

They definitely made ultimate team a lot harder this year. I have one guy whose rating is over 80 right now and I've opened like 8 packs (one pro pack, a bunch from other stuff). I remember playing it last year and getting AP off the bat.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 25, 2014 -> 10:12 AM) If he hadn't gotten behind the wheel drunk, then the NFL would have let him be an alcoholic in peace Didn't know about that part.

So Prater just got suspended 4 games for being an alcoholic. Odd.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Aug 24, 2014 -> 04:30 PM) Yikes, out for the year....This only makes the decision a little harder. From a talent standpoint Vereen>>>Stacy IMO, but you're right, with Bradford hurt again they could pound the rock a ton. I'm torn here. I guess if I was in your position, and it was a PPR I'd do it. Fitz for Maclin pushes me over the edge. I already offered the trade, let's see what happens. Vereen averaged 4.7 YPC last year, not bad at all. I have some confidence that he'll at least get 30-40 yards per game on the ground if he gets rush attempts. I also have Ridley on my bench, so in case one fails, I have the other.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Aug 24, 2014 -> 12:44 PM) That's a tough one. If Ridley continues to have fumblitis and Vereen takes the majority of the carries it's a no brainer. I think I'd do it in a PPR league but I'd be real hesitant about it. Bradford is hurt again...so they may run the ball a lot this year as well.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Aug 24, 2014 -> 12:01 AM) I usually don't pay too much attention, and just follow the buzz, but Ourlads seemingly stays up to date on things. As for Stacy....IMO, he's the most overrated RB in the league. Averaged just 3.9 YPC last year(31st in the league) and his numbers only looked good because the Rams QB Kellen Clemons and they were "forced" to run the ball a ton. Stacy was 11th in the league in carries despite only being the starter for 12 games(Only 4 carries before he started starting)....I can't imagine that volume of carries continues with Cunningham and 3rd round pick Tre Mason around as well. Would you do a Stacy/Maclin for Fitzgerald/Vereen swap?

So Zac Stacy didn't start for St. Louis in the last pre-season game...is that troubling? I just drafted Stacy today and I'm already afraid I made the wrong pick. Stacy's been bad in pre-season and Cunningham has been really good. Outside of that, I like my team a lot. I'm in 0.5 PPR with a flex, 12 teams. QB Foles WR Nelson WR Crabtree RB Charles RB Stacy TE Olsen W/R Maclin DEF Denver K Walsh Bench: E. Sanders, Ridley, Boldin, McCown, McFadden I really like my depth at WR.

Nice drive to close out the half.

Hey, remember when our special teams was good?

Should have traded him when he wasn't hitting .220.

Balotelli to Liverpool as Suarez's replacement for only 16 million Euros. Balotelli hasn't exactly lived up to his talent, but that's a bargain at 16 million.

My draft is this Saturday and I've done no preparation whatsoever.

James Rodriguez has already scored for Real Madrid... Dude just knows how to score.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 19, 2014 -> 05:53 PM) And more baserunners tend to lead to more runs. Its pretty simple. I agree with you on WHIP and there are other things to look at from a pitchers perspective, but we are talking about a guy with a WHIP at 1.4 over an 8 year career. That is no longer a sample size issue in total. More base runners also leads to more chances for said base runners to be eliminated on double plays for a ground ball pitcher. We're also talking about a guy with a 3.66 ERA and 3.48 FIP during his career over 400+ innings. My point was that judging a player based on a stat that depends on luck over a 60-70 inning sample size isn't enough. Baseball is about run prevention, not technically base-runner prevention. Over the course of Lindstrom's career, he's been good at limiting runs, yet not so good at limiting base runners. His ability to do the former has kept him in the league for 8 years. I'm not saying he's good - he's mediocre at best now, but he's clearly been an effective pitcher in the past despite allowing a decent amount of runners on base.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Aug 19, 2014 -> 05:06 PM) I think he's been able to stick around so long with that high a WHIP because he simply does not give up the long ball that often at all. Teams have to work to score their runs. He's a ground ball pitcher. For them, giving up base runners isn't as big of a deal since they usually won't give up home runs with guys on and they can cancel out those runners with the double play.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 19, 2014 -> 05:01 PM) My point is, his WHIP sucked, yet his FIP indicates he would be good. That makes zero sense. And when I look at relievers, one of the biggest things to focus on, imo, is his WHIP as an ERA/FIP can be a pretty bad indicator. You could be a pretty crappy reliever and have a good ERA because the guy behind you is really good and bails you out a lot, etc. Everyone talks about relievers FIP this and FIP that...just go back to a really simple stat...WHIP. He gives up a lot of hits and walks per nine innings and has over a long career. Last year's numbers were pretty much in-line with his career numbers and while the ERA might have been solid, the WHIP wasn't, and he is not a good reliever. One of the reasons people even use FIP is because over small sample sizes, hits can be due to luck. For relief pitchers, this is even more evident since they only pitch 60-70 innings a year if they're lucky. A coupe of dinkers in a bad spot can raise their ERA by half a run. That can also raise their WHIP by about .1 or maybe even .2. WHIP is a nice simple stat to look at to see how many base runners a pitcher gives up. The less the better obviously. But at the same time, it's too simplistic for its own good and it definitely shouldn't be used as an end-all-be-all stat to evaluate relievers. For instance, a ground ball pitcher may give up more hits than a strike-out pitcher, yet their ERAs may actually be similar because the ground ball pitcher has a better chance of inducing double plays to reduce the damage in any situation with runners on. Case and point: Matt Lindstrom (also, Jake Petricka). And honestly, what you're saying about FIP making no sense since it doesn't match with WHIP also doesn't make a lot of sense. WHIP measures base runners. FIP measures runs. Those two things measure different things. Just because one is higher does not necessarily mean the other one has to be high. Yes, I get that more base runners = more likely to give up more runs, but it's not a perfect 1-to-1 relationship and it differs for different pitchers.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 19, 2014 -> 04:39 PM) This shouldn't be new. I've been saying this since the original bullpen thread. Don't get me started on FIP and what a great predictor it is. FIP indicated decent numbers for Lindstrom even last year, when he posted a pretty garbage WHIP for a reliever. How are you projecting good / solid ERA results when you have a WHIP over 1.4? That really doesn't make much sense to me. His career WHIP is over 1.4 too. One more point about WHIP and relievers. There's a reason why Lindstrom's WHIP is bad yet he has a career 3.66 ERA. He's a heavy ground ball pitcher (49%), who can get himself out of trouble with men on base using the ground ball (similar to Petricka). So while his WHIP is bad, he shouldn't be judged entirely on it due to his pitching style.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 19, 2014 -> 04:55 PM) Judging by his huge velocity drop, injury seems to be the clear front runner for me. He hasn't been right all year. That or he aged a lot in one off-season.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 19, 2014 -> 04:49 PM) His 2013 FIP was 3.16, or his best since 2007. And it was 3.16 the year before too. FIP can predict ERA fairly well as long as talent-level stays constant. In this case, Lindstrom's talent level has fallen dramatically.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 19, 2014 -> 04:39 PM) This shouldn't be new. I've been saying this since the original bullpen thread. Don't get me started on FIP and what a great predictor it is. FIP indicated decent numbers for Lindstrom even last year, when he posted a pretty garbage WHIP for a reliever. How are you projecting good / solid ERA results when you have a WHIP over 1.4? That really doesn't make much sense to me. His career WHIP is over 1.4 too. FIP and WHIP are almost completely independent stats. FIP weights home runs, walks, and strike outs. WHIP only takes walks and hits into account. One says a hit is all the pitcher's fault while another says only hits that are home runs are the pitcher's fault (and they really screw up his FIP). FIP cannot predict WHIP because it's not what it's trying to predict. It's supposed to project ERA, which it does a decent job of doing.