Chicago White Sox

All fair points, but I don’t think regression for Colson is that far fetched. His power numbers were insane last year and he may struggle to maintain a 90th percentile barrel rate as the league adjusts to him. Personally, I think he regresses some but nowhere near to the levels that Steamer is projecting.

What stands out when you see the above? Who do you guys think will exceed their projections? Personally, I think it’s fun & interesting lineup for a team when expectations of competing next year. With the addition or two in free agency, I think this group could really surprise next year.

Given the slow offseason, I wanted to start looking at protections for next year and see how the team is stacking up in current form. For this exercise, I am taking the projected 26 man roster from Fangraphs’ Roster Resource and summarizing the Steamer 600 projections for each player. To start, I’m going to look at the starting lineup: Lineup: Meidroth, 2B | 108 wRC+ | 3.2 fWAR Teel, CA* | 106 wRC+ | 1.9 fWAR Montgomery, SS* | 98 wRC+ | 2.6 fWAR Vargas, 3B | 107 wRC+ | 2.0 fWAR Benintendi, LF* | 103 wRC+ | 0.7 fWAR Robert, CF | 96 wRC+ | 2.0 fWAR Quero, DH# | 104 wRC+ | 0.8 fWAR Sosa, 1B | 93 wRC+ | 1.0 fWAR Baldwin, RF# | 101 wRC+ | 1.8 fWAR Key Takaways: The model is assuming significant regression offensively from both Colson & Teel next year, but material improvement with the bat from Meidroth Colson put up a 129 wRC+ last year with his wOBA only .015 points higher than expected; despite that, Steamer does NOT believe he can maintain his .290 ISO from last year which ranked 13th overall and project it to drop by ~.090 points Teel put up a 125 wRC+ last year with his wOBA only .012 points higher than expected; despite that, Steamer does NOT believe he can maintain his .273 BA from last year as it was driven by a high BABIP (8th overall in MLB) and expect it to drop by ~.025 points Meidroth remains an analytics darling with the highest projected fWAR on the team; Steamer expects his wRC+ to improve by 21 points next due to gains in both his BB rate (+2.2 % pts) & ISO (+.042) while maintaining positive defense value in the middle infield The model is expecting Robert’s wRC+ to improve by 12 points next year but still well short of his 126 wRC+ in the 2H of last year Despite projected improvement with the bat, Quero’s expected fWAR remains fairly low due to below average defense at the catcher spot The model see improvement for Vargas & Baldwin offensively next year, but feels Sosa will regress some due a drop in both ISO & BABIP

Way worse than the White Sox IMO.

You’re looking for reasons to be negative it appears

Probably four or five

Alberto > Skubal ?

Meidroth can play SS which is an advantage over The Chairman.

You might as well add guys to the 40 man now until you need the roster spot.

Better than Tauchman? I think he’s the better defender in a corner, especially in Mike’s current state. Offensively is the big question, but Bleday put up a 119 wRC+ against RHP in 2023 & 2024 combined and if you believe he can return form that is better than the production gave you against righties last year (114 wRC+). Bleday is a true platoon bat whereas Tauchman has flashed more against LHP in the past. I think if the price is right (he was non-tendered over $2.5M), then adding him to the corner OF mix makes sense. Would allow you to play Baldwin a bit more in the IF against RHP as well. Anything that helps push Benintendi out of the OF is a plus to me.

Helps the Robert market some but could make it hard to land a useful corner OF (not that there are many in free agency to begin with).

I think Luis Robert will require us eating some money to get a quality prospect in return, but this shitty OF market (Lane Thomas getting $5M, few CF’s worth a damn) will likely limit how much that is. Don’t see us lining up on a bet here.

All this makes sense. My point was it’s exciting that one of these kids cracked a top 100 list when still in the low minors despite limited velocity. That doesn’t happen very often, which goes to show how special this control / command and suggests his secondaries are much better than some sites are suggesting.

Kyle Finnegan got his deal because he was dominant down the stretch with the Tigers when he ramped up the usage of his splitter. Clearly the Tigers believe he can continue doing that and he will be worth the contract. Whether that happens remains to be seen. How do we know Fairbanks is getting 2/$20M+?

Bleday comes with multiple years of control too. Still shocked that the A’s couldn’t find a buyer at his salary prior to non-tendering him.

Not to defend Jerry as he sucks major you know what, but has anyone read the actual article and able to summarize what is fact vs. speculation? All I’m able to see is Heyman stating Jerry may be unwilling to give Steve Cohen money, not that he won’t and not that he won’t give money to teams in general. If you recall, Jerry hates the ever living f*** out of Steve Cohen. This may just be some billionaire beef as last offseason it sounded like the Sox were willing to eat some money in discussions with the Reds. Obviously I have no idea what is true here, but find it hard to believe that Getz picks up the $20M option if he didn’t have the authority to eat some it in most cases.

I guess I don’t get why it’s interesting. If you take a guy who can play a competent SS or plus 3B and you put them at 1B, you are not optimizing their value. At that point, you either trade them or someone else to ensure they are in the right spot on the field. Now, if Colson needs to move to 1B due to health issues (back) that’s a different story, but I’d call that unfortunate moreso than interesting.

It’s wild you linked to an article that provides very little info and then pull almost nothing from it and instead just throw out your own random thoughts. The only key takeaway from that article is that per Ken Rosenthal no teams had interest in Fairbanks at 1/$11M at the time of the non-tender. The Rays were not worried he “might get hurt or not perform” next year because they had no interest in retaining him and wanted to use the money on other needs. They could have theoretically picked up the option in hopes of his market improving later, but that was a risk they did not feel like taking given the lack of interest in him at the time. I’m still not sure what Matz has to do with anything here…seems pretty clear they chose to use their limited dollars on a LH swingman instead of Fairbanks based on need priority.

I believe we’re at $61M with a full 26 man roster of pre arb guys. However, let’s say we plan to add four more players (1B, OF, RP, SP), we’d also shave off $3M of salary out of that $61M. As such, I think you could say we have $32M to work with if you assume an exact $90M payroll. Theoretically this would be possible with that space: 1B: O’Hearn = $13.5M (2/$27M) OF: Bleday = $2.5M (1/$2.5M) RP: Fairbanks = $10M (2/$20M) SP: TBD FA = $6M

Interesting that Paez cracked Longhagen’s Top 100 list prior to the 2025 season but he fell off after a change in release point and injury.

I’d say ~$90M is what I’d expect.

Depends on the additions. A legit closer would provide far more value than their projected WAR given who they’re replacing. Regardless, the bulk of improvement needs to come from the young guys. I’m happy with smaller scale additions in FA this offseason to improve the floor and take some pressure off the kids.

Last year led to losses?

Getz listed off a pretty big laundry list of items including high leverage relief help, more SP depth, a LH bat at a corner IF spot, and possibly another corner OF. Throw in Kay and two Rule 5 picks and that would be quite a bit of activity. Likely small stakes financially, but could / should make the team better and more fun to watch.

They didn’t have a TV deal for a large chunk of last year, hard tot believe the payroll wouldn’t go up.