Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (Frank_Thomas35 @ Jan 20, 2014 -> 01:23 PM) Well... TIFWIW.... But it may be over for us... https://mobile.twitter.com/TomLoxas/status/...336944038395904 Tom Loxas reporting its down to NYY and CHC. If a Chicago Now blogger is the one to break this story then every National Baseball writer should be embarassed.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 20, 2014 -> 08:25 AM) There is no lead. I will let you know when pen hits paper. I think I've said that 5+ times. Anything beyond that is wild conjecture and speculation. Frankly, there is smoke blowing and misdirection right now. You likely have teams leaking information that they are "done and out of it," "longshots," and "favored to get him." Reading too much into anything right now is just not the right move. Yeah, I don't really trust anything that's being reported by the US media right now. How dozens and dozens of reporters have sources with insider info on a Japanese free agent's thinking is beyond me. I'm guessing everything is real close to the chest right now with Tanaka and his agent. All the reports coming out of the US about teams "leading" the race, proposed terms, and even his preferences (including his wife) are likely speculation by reporters or misdirection created by MLB front offices.

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Jan 19, 2014 -> 01:49 PM) I could have sworn I read that after signing all their arb players they were still just under the luxery tax. Maybe I read wrong, but I assumed that it included A-Roid's suspension/salary removed. Yup, I posted an article in this thread a few days ago, but here is a breakdown of where they stand right now: http://nypost.com/2013/11/05/yankees-payro...n-road-to-189m/ So they are are at $171M not including the $11M they'll be charged for insurance and pensions and salaries for their pre-arb players and future minor league callups. In other words, they're probably $5M or so below the $189M threshold. Not nearly enough room to add Tanaka and remove their multi-time offender status. Clearly they're still pursuing Tanaka, but I don't think the Yankees will be blowing anyone out of the water, not if they want to get below the threshold anytime in the near future. And remember, A-Rod's full salary is back in play for luxury tax purposes next year. Adding Tanaka at a ridiculous salary will have long-term consequences for the Yankees.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 19, 2014 -> 12:10 PM) They have a team that can compete right now, they have a huge need for a front of the rotation pitcher, and they have $25 million in space under the luxury tax line this season. They make by far the most sense. It would actually be dumb of them to not offer him $25 million this season, he fills a direct need on an expensive, veteran-laden team that has a clearly designed "Win-now" roster. Balta, I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers from, but there is literally no way the Yankees can add Tanaka without going into the luxury tax short of selling off players.

Lol...I really hope this is true, but there is so much bulls*** out there right now who knows what to believe.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 19, 2014 -> 08:28 AM) http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-leag...08570--mlb.html In this article, the rumor was that the Cubs were at $160 plus the $20 million posting fee for 8 years. So $20 million a year for eight years, essentially. No way the Sox top that. Still has to be favored to end up with Yankees or Dodgers. From what I can tell, that rumor came from a Chicago Now blogger named Tom Loxas, so I'm not sure if I'd give the rumor any credibility. Just doing a quick google search, Tom reported in late November that the Cubs & Blue Jays could be close on a Shark trade, which obviously never happened. Seems like this guy is likely full of s***.

http://msn.foxsports.com/arizona/story/rep...o-tanaka-011814 That offer comes out to just below $18M per year without the posting fee and exactly $21M per year with it. Common sense would suggest this is likely the lowest of the five offers, but the question is how much higher would teams be willing to go? The Yankees & Dodgers are both luxury tax teams with Tanaka, which IMO will prevent them from blowing the other three teams out of the water. For the Cubs & Sox to have a chance, I think they'll need to either offer more money than LA & NY or will have to do something very creative. Given that we've heard that all the offers were above $100M, I think we can assume the ladder scenario is out. That concerns me, as part of me believes the Cubs are willing to do something stupid here. If not and Theo is simply using the press to blow smoke, I honestly believe there's a chance that the Sox have the top offer.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 18, 2014 -> 10:58 AM) I believe Levine also tweeted that having a big Japanese-American community would be important for where they choose. If so, then Tanaka will be signing with the Dodgers. I don't get why Levine thinks it's such a big deal that the Cubs offered a "real contract". Yeah, that was a pretty stupid tweet. I think it's safe to say that all the teams that met with Tanaka plan on offering him a contract at some point. Go ahead and report that the Cubs made an "official" offer, but Levine shouldn't be acting like it's some ground-breaking story unless he has some of the proposed terms.

QUOTE (timbo @ Jan 17, 2014 -> 05:00 PM) really cubs that just wrong and that why i can't take the cubs seriously Let's not pretend the Cubs organization had anything to do with those shirts. Rip the fans that bought them and actually wore them in public, but let's not act like the Cubs' marketing department created or distributed them. Not sure about those lame headbands though.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 16, 2014 -> 07:46 PM) I think that is the only way the Cubs will sign him. I'm actually more worried about the Cubs signing him than the Yankees & Dodgers. The Cubs have enough money to make a ridiculous offer without luxury tax consequences, desperately need to add quality starting pitching, and could use a major PR win with the fans. The Cubs are the one team IMO with the motives to do something really stupid here.

QUOTE (Al Lopez's Ghost @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 05:28 PM) What info? Before this thread got caulfield'd, a poster claimed the Score was reporting the Sox were backing off Tanaka because he was getting too expensive. Not sure if anyone else heard this, because Rongey made no mention of this on his last update.

Did anyone hear this Score update? If so, is this a Berstein "source" or has a real insider provided this info?

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 14, 2014 -> 05:59 PM) Semien doesn't really have any outstanding tools. He is above average on just about everything. These types don't generally make the list. He had a .420 OBP in AA with more BBs than Ks. Plate discipline may not be a tool, but it is a skill and Semien demonstrated it extremely well last year. Given the value of OBP, I'm not sure why this skill is less important than any physical tool.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jan 14, 2014 -> 10:30 AM) Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 6 Jan They're close. I have Semien ahead in my rankings. RT @bigcardsfanphil how much of a gap do you see between Wong and Semien? That's high praise considering that Wong is almost universally considered a top #100 prospect. This quote pretty much says that Semien is not a top 100 prospect. It also suggests that Davidson may not make it either. I'll be interested in seeing where Wong ends up in these rankings now Badler made that comment.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 14, 2014 -> 09:04 AM) And Semien at #2 is interesting. While I don't agree with his #2 ranking, I do think he's being underrated by a lot people. The kid absolutely dominated AA in an age-appropriate season, while demonstrating incredible plate discipline. Maybe I'm wrong, but prospects that can show that kind of plate discipline at the higher levels typically fair better against major league pitching. Also, in terms of comps, he was better offensively than other top 100 prospects like Joc Pederson & Arismendy Alcantara. Unfortunately, John Maneul said in his Sox chat that Semien won't be cracking this year's list. It really bothers me that Baseball America believes there are 100+ prospects out there that are better than a 22 year old middle infielder that posted a .903 OPS & 167 wRC+ in AA.

Maybe I'm wrong, but aren't these projection systems typically pretty bad with young players? Also, I'd love to see what they're projecting for Erik Johnson based on those comments.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 13, 2014 -> 01:22 PM) .240 average, 17 homers, 118 games played That would be horrific for so many reasons.

My first year expectations: .270/.330/.510/.840 Honestly, other than the slugging, nothing too crazy there. That's a top 10 1B in terms of OPS, but it's near the bottom end of the spectrum and low on the OBP side. The one tool that has consistently been praised by scouts is his power, so I think that number is fairly reasonable, especially playing half his games in the Cell. I do think his K & BB rates will improve as he adjusts to major league pitching, so long-term I think you're looking at a .900 OPS type player. In this environment, that would make him one of the best 1B in baseball. Again, Abreu's power should be elite, so if he can make average contact, I really believe these are realistic expections. If not, we're probably in serious trouble, because I don't think his Cuban League BB rate will translate very well to the MLB (lots of intentional walks skewing his OBP). A high K rate would likely result in a Mark Trumbo type player, which despite the return the Angels got for him, would be pretty disappointing to say the least.

QUOTE (Paulstar @ Jan 12, 2014 -> 12:21 AM) I think people are overreacting how much the Yankees are willing to pay for Tanaka. I'm sure they are going to be in it for the 15-20 million annual range, but I don't see them willing to spend over 20 million annually on him. They still have to deal with A-Rod after this year, and if they go over 20 million on Tanaka they are right back to where they were with no breathing room under the luxury tax. I'd be more worried about the Dodgers being the ones to spoil all the fun and offer him something nuts. http://abcnews.go.com/m/story?id=21500933&...w.google.com%2F One thing to point out about the Yankees is that they were at the their luxury tax threshold prior to the A-Rod suspension, but that number that did not include arb & pre-arb players. MLBTradeRumors.com projects their 5 arb eligible players to make about $15M next year and if you throw in another $3M to complete the roster, they'll probably be $4M under the threshold after their $22M in savings from the A-Rod suspension. This is assuming they make no other major moves. So for the Yankees to add Tanaka, they'd have to go over the luxury tax threshold and pay 50% in penalties for every dollar over $4M. If Tanaka were to get an AAV of $20M, the Yankees would pay $8M in penalties. I'm not sure if that itself is a big deal for them, but right now they have the opportunity to reset their luxury tax rate to 17.5%, which has been a goal of the Yankees. Assuming the article above is accurate, I don't see how they can add Tanaka and fall below the threshold. It would have to be one or the other.

QUOTE (zenryan @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 11:38 AM) I hope he wins his appeal federal appeal and only gets the first time offender penalty. The Yankees knew what they were paying for when they signed him. The NYY organization shouldnt be able to weasel their way out of this ridiculous contract. I'm sorry, but A-Rod is a multi-time offender and grade A asshole. I'm happy he's losing a year of his salary, even if it helps the Yankees.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 11:10 AM) Good riddance. I'm glad by and large the arbitrator held this up. Bad news is the Yankees can now really front load a deal with Tanaka and throw a lot of coin without being too worried about luxury tax payments this year. Salaries are on a straight-line basis for luxury tax purposes, so they won't be able to front-load a Tanaka.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 10:03 AM) They're also negotiating their WGN TV deal, they have more than enough money. The Sox chance lies in how creative they are willing to be. Tons of money up front with a 3-4 year player out and being competitive over a 6-7 year offer. It's a longshot still. Yup, pretty much agree with everything you say here. The Sox are likely on the outside looking in on Tanaka, so they'll need to do something creative to have any chance to get a deal done. While I think it's a huge long-shot, the Jose Abreu deal was pretty creative (opt-out to arbitration after year 3) so maybe Hahn will shock the world. Glad they're being active in these discussions though.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 11:03 AM) The link in the other thread has the Cubs opening day payroll being at $78 million this year. That's their projected payroll right now assuming no Tanaka and that would be like a 22% decrease in payroll from 2013. I'm extremely confident that Theo could bump that number up to $100M for the right player (i.e. Tanaka). He's just not going to spend money to simply spend money like he did with Edwin Jackson. He's only looking at impact guys that can fit their time-table, which is at least another two years out before they'll be competitive IMO. Given that Tanaka is 25 years old, he can be part of the long-term core and is probably worth investing in now. Not a lot of free agents fit that bill this year, which is why Theo hasn't spending the money he does have available.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 09:56 AM) Eh, I don't know. In all honesty, from everything I've read and heard on the radio, the Ricketts really seem like a family who took a chance on their favorite franchise being available and hopping at the chance to buy them, not realizing how much overhead goes into running the franchise and all the improvements the Cubs needed. Theo and Jed have wanted to add high priced FA's to mix in with their young prospects. Tom seems to think though, that Theo is like Friedman and can simply just fill the team with prospects. This is true, which is why the Cubs' payroll have gone from the $140Ms to the low $100Ms. On top of that, let's not forget that the Cubs have spent big dollars on the draft and in Latin America. I'm not arguing that Theo & Jed thought they'd have more resources to work with, but the Cubs don't have a lot of long-term salary commitments. There's really no debate here because they've had $100M payrolls under the Ricketts ownership and $32M committed for 2015 right now. They can easly fit Tanaka if they want him.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 08:12 AM) There are serious doubts about how much money the Cubs can spend -- they have very few future salary commitments, but adding a $20M/year guy will make things real tight over there The Cubs should have plenty of room for Tanaka. This is a team that was rocking $140M+ payrolls a few years ago and still has been over $100M under the Ricketts family despite a big chunk of revenue being used to pay off their debt. On top of that, they just got $25M in extra national TV deal money. Given that they only have $32M in payroll committments for 2015, there is no doubt in my mind they could easily fit Tanaka in their long-term plans.