Chicago White Sox

I’m actually really optimistic about our rotation with Clevinger as the #5. Still need another depth arm for Charlotte and/or swingman, but I think we’ve got as high of a ceiling rotation as anyone in baseball. Will be disappointed if they move Lucas and replace him with another C tier free agent.

I don’t see us moving Tim unless the team completely falls part and they trade him at the deadline.

I had trading Hendriks in my off-season plan, so I’ve been open to it for a while. I think we’d looking for different things though.

Nimmo would be awesome, but who else would you consider a big contract?

The more I think about it, the more I think Hendriks gets moved. He just seems like a luxury we can’t afford at the moment and he should actually bring legit value back given what relief pitchers are going for right now. Additionally, moving him would free up some payroll and give us more flexibility to address other needs. Both the Yankees & Dodgers could use an elite closer and there is no one is his stratosphere available in free agency. And honestly, I also worry his arm is going to explode at some point next year. Basically it just makes so much sense to trade him right now even if it weakens the current state of the bullpen, assuming a quality return can be attained.

If the rumor is legit, I’d expect it to be informally announced by Monday or Tuesday. I agree with @Tnetennba that the holiday weekend may be slowing things down a bit.

Just an FYI, but Rutherford (and Adolfo) are no longer in the org.

Sounds like the Cubs may have interest.

Do you happen to know what he specifically said?

McKnight?

I just mean if your off-season is limited to reclamation projects and cheap veterans, at least go for high variance guys with actual upside.

I think his days as a 5+ win SP are long gone, but I think he can still be a 3 to 4 win pitcher if he can get his mechanics worked out. I agree, I’d be hesitant to commit big money to him at this point, but take advantage of his reasonable salary for a year and put a QO on him. I just don’t see how selling him makes us any better this year and I’m assuming no one is giving up a prospect package that is worth that trade-off.

The Sox should follow-up a Clevinger signing with a Conforto signing. Swing for the fucking the fences with your additions and hope for the best.

Giolito put up 11.3 fWAR from 2019 to 2021 over 72 starts. This ranked 7th in all of baseball. And now some people are eager to dump him after a season in which he put 1.8 fWAR and a 3.65 xFIP. You won’t find a better value for $10M next year than Lucas Giolito. He won’t be an ace, but take #2 or #3 type starter production on the cheap for a year and then place a QO on him. That’s probably the best path forward with him.

Fegan seems to imply the Sox have no interest in bringing Cueto back:

You think of our bullpen is shaky in our current form?

I think Hendriks or a different reliever is more likely to be moved if they need to clear salary. And I can’t imagine Cueto would be all that cheaper than Giolito’s $10M salary, so what are you really gaining there other than hoping a 37 year old with a sub 6 per 9 K rate can repeat his 2022 season. I wouldn’t want to bank on that.

I don’t see what signing Clevinger to trade Giolito accomplishes. You’re right back in the same spot in needing a starter and now have lost a guy who typically gives you 180 innings.

Fegan already has a piece up on the Athletic on Clevinger. It’s almost written like the deal has been agreed to. Not overly surprising, but probably the most interesting quote:

I think Fangraphs crowdsourcing had him getting a 1/$8M deal and MLBTR had getting a 1/$10M deal. Both seem a little light to me and I went with $12M in my off-season plan. Regardless, if we only have $15M to work with it, any of those prices would eat up a good chunk of our flexibility assuming an $180M payroll. Would almost make me believe there is a little more in the coffers.

Couple interesting things to note about Clevinger. His K rate was horrible this year, but what’s interesting is his four seamer was basically the same as it was in 2018 in terms of velocity, spin rate, & movement. His declining K rate has more to do with his slider and curveball than anything else. The curve was simply not effective this year and he cut its usage substantially. The slider was still effective at generating whiffs, but not as strong as 2018 and he made more mistakes with the pitch given the sizable increase in ISO against. However, his spin rates for both breaking balls was as good or better than 2018. Not sure if he was dealing with rust coming off TJS or if the knee injury he dealt with hurt his mechanics / command, but it seems like the pure stuff might still be at 2018 levels when he put up a 3.52 FIP and 4.2 fWAR over 200 innings. He’s obviously not going to average 6.25 innings per start and I think we can rule out 32 starts right out of the gate. However, I think we can probably get ~135 innings out of him next year and that could be worth 2.5 to 3.0 wins. Obviously there are no guarantees and he could easily bust, but I think there is reason for optimism here and it doesn’t require him returning to his Cy Young caliber form from 2019.

I have no idea what this means and I don’t think you understand how ZiPS works. But hey, I got more important to talk about like the impending Clevinger signing.

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I just want to say that @Pal is the GOAT insider unlike those fraudulent foodies. Can’t wait for them to try and piggyback off this somehow.