Chicago White Sox

Giolito put up 11.3 fWAR from 2019 to 2021 over 72 starts. This ranked 7th in all of baseball. And now some people are eager to dump him after a season in which he put 1.8 fWAR and a 3.65 xFIP. You won’t find a better value for $10M next year than Lucas Giolito. He won’t be an ace, but take #2 or #3 type starter production on the cheap for a year and then place a QO on him. That’s probably the best path forward with him.

Fegan seems to imply the Sox have no interest in bringing Cueto back:

You think of our bullpen is shaky in our current form?

I think Hendriks or a different reliever is more likely to be moved if they need to clear salary. And I can’t imagine Cueto would be all that cheaper than Giolito’s $10M salary, so what are you really gaining there other than hoping a 37 year old with a sub 6 per 9 K rate can repeat his 2022 season. I wouldn’t want to bank on that.

I don’t see what signing Clevinger to trade Giolito accomplishes. You’re right back in the same spot in needing a starter and now have lost a guy who typically gives you 180 innings.

Fegan already has a piece up on the Athletic on Clevinger. It’s almost written like the deal has been agreed to. Not overly surprising, but probably the most interesting quote:

I think Fangraphs crowdsourcing had him getting a 1/$8M deal and MLBTR had getting a 1/$10M deal. Both seem a little light to me and I went with $12M in my off-season plan. Regardless, if we only have $15M to work with it, any of those prices would eat up a good chunk of our flexibility assuming an $180M payroll. Would almost make me believe there is a little more in the coffers.

Couple interesting things to note about Clevinger. His K rate was horrible this year, but what’s interesting is his four seamer was basically the same as it was in 2018 in terms of velocity, spin rate, & movement. His declining K rate has more to do with his slider and curveball than anything else. The curve was simply not effective this year and he cut its usage substantially. The slider was still effective at generating whiffs, but not as strong as 2018 and he made more mistakes with the pitch given the sizable increase in ISO against. However, his spin rates for both breaking balls was as good or better than 2018. Not sure if he was dealing with rust coming off TJS or if the knee injury he dealt with hurt his mechanics / command, but it seems like the pure stuff might still be at 2018 levels when he put up a 3.52 FIP and 4.2 fWAR over 200 innings. He’s obviously not going to average 6.25 innings per start and I think we can rule out 32 starts right out of the gate. However, I think we can probably get ~135 innings out of him next year and that could be worth 2.5 to 3.0 wins. Obviously there are no guarantees and he could easily bust, but I think there is reason for optimism here and it doesn’t require him returning to his Cy Young caliber form from 2019.

I have no idea what this means and I don’t think you understand how ZiPS works. But hey, I got more important to talk about like the impending Clevinger signing.

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I just want to say that @Pal is the GOAT insider unlike those fraudulent foodies. Can’t wait for them to try and piggyback off this somehow.

Oh f*** yes, a real rumor! And one that would make me happy! I ain’t sleeping until something is formally announced.

Because that number isn’t ZiPS’ forecast if you actually read the article. ZiPS projected Lynn would make 26 starts whereas the figure you’re using assumes more. Luckily ZiPS accurately predicted a fat guy with bad knees wasn’t going to make 32 starts and the miss was a much more manageable 0.7 difference.

There are three major factors you continue to overlook. First is Tony La Russa as our manager. His presence or lack thereof created an environment that fostered underperformance. It may be impossible to quantify, but there is no doubt in my mind that he brought the worst out in players. Second, is Frank “f*** the HR” Menechino. That dude had guys selling out power for a contact heavy approach, which is the exact opposite of what works in our stadium as evident by us getting out homered at home 98 to 77 (~27%). And it’s not like our team lacks raw power. We went into every game with a horrible offensive strategy relative to modern baseball consensus. Finally, and probably most overlooked, is the fact we could not communicate with our players during the off-season because of the lockout. I think the Sox have been beyond the times a bit when it comes to strength & conditioning, but their new Director did not even get a chance to put in place off-season programs for his guys. That will change this off-season and hopefully that will make a huge difference in guys being healthy next year. Additionally, the Sox have been investing in their sports science department and you heard Grifol & Hahn whisper about it during their press conference. There is reason to believe our team’s overall health will improve next year, the only question is how many of these injuries are preventable vs. being related to guys who are simply injury prone. The answer is likely in the middle but that should have a significant impact on our production next year.

Lynn wasn’t even close to being the second largest miss: Grandal -4.3 (33) Giolito -2.3 (28) Moncada -2.3 (27) Kuechel -2.1 (34) Garcia -1.6 (31) Vaughn -1.5 (24) Engel -1.3 (30) Robert -1.1 (25) Sheets -1.0 (26) Anderson -0.8 (29) Lynn -0.7 (35) (he still exceeded his projected FIP by 0.35 points) Very weird you’re making up numbers now. There’s literally six guys in their 20’s who underperformed more than Lance last year.

I think your CPU may have finally malfunctioned. You said those two plus Cueto offset all our underperformance last year, which is an absolutely absurd take. I focused on our positional group because that is where the bulk of underperformance happened. If you want to include Abreu that’s fine, but his two extra wins would be more than offset by Sheets & Engel coming in at 0.0 WAR vs. the 2.3 ZiPS had projected for them. No matter how you slice this, the offense underachieved by a good 10 wins or more. As for the pitching, yes Cease outperformed his ZiPS projection by 1.4 wins. Add Ceuto’s 2.4 wins vs. a replacement player and we’re at 3.8 wins. Meanwhile, Lynn, Giolito, & Kopech were projected for 8.1 WAR and only put up 4.7, which is a 3.4 delta. So net on net, we’re nearly even there and we haven’t even accounted for Keuchel projected to be a 1.8 win pitcher getting DFAed after putting -0.3 WAR through eight starts. Overall, I think it’s fair to say the rotation was slightly below expectations even with Cueto and VV/Davis pitching well in their roles. To summarize, this team massively underperformed last year and I don’t know how any sentient life form could argue otherwise. I mean, there isn’t anything to even debate here when the numbers are so clear cut.

You think Andrus & Seby combining for 3.9 WAR offsets Robert, Anderson, Moncada, Eloy, Grandal, Pollock, Vaughn, and Leury coming for 5.3 WAR instead of the 18.0 they were projected for by ZiPS? Surely you can’t be serious.

True, but they wouldn’t be able to option him.

Who is Aquino? I’ve never even heard of the guy.

You do this same bit every year, claiming your pessimism is simply a “protection mechanism”, and then you still end up disappointed when the Sox ultimately underachieve. When will connect that dots on this?

Who is possibly Colas’ equal?

Rub…One…Out…Dude. Your view of Robert is ridiculous. He had a 124 wRC+ through August. He then posted a -90 wRC+ in September by playing through a hand injury when any other organization would have had him on the IL. As for his defense, I don’t buy for a second that he’s suddenly a bad defender in CF. He dealt with multiple issues last year and it took a toll on his game. They need to find a way to keep him healthy for the bulk of the season and hopefully having a full off-season to actually work with him will allow that to finally happen. Moncada is going to rebound significantly with La Russa gone. Eloy should be able to play more if he DHs on a regular basis. Vaughn won’t wear down like he did this year if he doesn’t play the outfield. Anderson hopefully won’t miss a massive chunk of the season and his off the field bullshit should finally be in the past. Even if Grandal is cooked, the retuning positional group will much better than they were in 2022. On the pitching side, Giolito will likely be better if he can fix his mechanics over the off-season and ultimately his four seamer & slider. Kopech will better with a healthier knee and an arm that has fully recovered from a massive innings increase. I also don’t see why Cease is expected to regress. I think overall our four core starters will give us more in 2023 than they did in 2022 and that’s assuming continued age / health regression with Lynn. Is this a playoff team in its current form? Depends on how much better the core is under Grifol vs. La Russa and whether Hahn is finally able to address our couple major holes, but it’s not nearly as dire as you’re making it out to be.

It’s really not hard at all. A conservative ZiPS system has them winning 76 games with no additions. With any substantial improvement in health, I think this team has a .500ish type floor. Hitting 90 wins is the problem if the payroll is constrained to $180M or so.

25% increase in attendance and Jerry is going to cut payroll. Just a terrible businessman and horrible owner.