Chicago White Sox

Oh f*** yes, a real rumor! And one that would make me happy! I ain’t sleeping until something is formally announced.

Because that number isn’t ZiPS’ forecast if you actually read the article. ZiPS projected Lynn would make 26 starts whereas the figure you’re using assumes more. Luckily ZiPS accurately predicted a fat guy with bad knees wasn’t going to make 32 starts and the miss was a much more manageable 0.7 difference.

There are three major factors you continue to overlook. First is Tony La Russa as our manager. His presence or lack thereof created an environment that fostered underperformance. It may be impossible to quantify, but there is no doubt in my mind that he brought the worst out in players. Second, is Frank “f*** the HR” Menechino. That dude had guys selling out power for a contact heavy approach, which is the exact opposite of what works in our stadium as evident by us getting out homered at home 98 to 77 (~27%). And it’s not like our team lacks raw power. We went into every game with a horrible offensive strategy relative to modern baseball consensus. Finally, and probably most overlooked, is the fact we could not communicate with our players during the off-season because of the lockout. I think the Sox have been beyond the times a bit when it comes to strength & conditioning, but their new Director did not even get a chance to put in place off-season programs for his guys. That will change this off-season and hopefully that will make a huge difference in guys being healthy next year. Additionally, the Sox have been investing in their sports science department and you heard Grifol & Hahn whisper about it during their press conference. There is reason to believe our team’s overall health will improve next year, the only question is how many of these injuries are preventable vs. being related to guys who are simply injury prone. The answer is likely in the middle but that should have a significant impact on our production next year.

Lynn wasn’t even close to being the second largest miss: Grandal -4.3 (33) Giolito -2.3 (28) Moncada -2.3 (27) Kuechel -2.1 (34) Garcia -1.6 (31) Vaughn -1.5 (24) Engel -1.3 (30) Robert -1.1 (25) Sheets -1.0 (26) Anderson -0.8 (29) Lynn -0.7 (35) (he still exceeded his projected FIP by 0.35 points) Very weird you’re making up numbers now. There’s literally six guys in their 20’s who underperformed more than Lance last year.

I think your CPU may have finally malfunctioned. You said those two plus Cueto offset all our underperformance last year, which is an absolutely absurd take. I focused on our positional group because that is where the bulk of underperformance happened. If you want to include Abreu that’s fine, but his two extra wins would be more than offset by Sheets & Engel coming in at 0.0 WAR vs. the 2.3 ZiPS had projected for them. No matter how you slice this, the offense underachieved by a good 10 wins or more. As for the pitching, yes Cease outperformed his ZiPS projection by 1.4 wins. Add Ceuto’s 2.4 wins vs. a replacement player and we’re at 3.8 wins. Meanwhile, Lynn, Giolito, & Kopech were projected for 8.1 WAR and only put up 4.7, which is a 3.4 delta. So net on net, we’re nearly even there and we haven’t even accounted for Keuchel projected to be a 1.8 win pitcher getting DFAed after putting -0.3 WAR through eight starts. Overall, I think it’s fair to say the rotation was slightly below expectations even with Cueto and VV/Davis pitching well in their roles. To summarize, this team massively underperformed last year and I don’t know how any sentient life form could argue otherwise. I mean, there isn’t anything to even debate here when the numbers are so clear cut.

You think Andrus & Seby combining for 3.9 WAR offsets Robert, Anderson, Moncada, Eloy, Grandal, Pollock, Vaughn, and Leury coming for 5.3 WAR instead of the 18.0 they were projected for by ZiPS? Surely you can’t be serious.

True, but they wouldn’t be able to option him.

Who is Aquino? I’ve never even heard of the guy.

You do this same bit every year, claiming your pessimism is simply a “protection mechanism”, and then you still end up disappointed when the Sox ultimately underachieve. When will connect that dots on this?

Who is possibly Colas’ equal?

Rub…One…Out…Dude. Your view of Robert is ridiculous. He had a 124 wRC+ through August. He then posted a -90 wRC+ in September by playing through a hand injury when any other organization would have had him on the IL. As for his defense, I don’t buy for a second that he’s suddenly a bad defender in CF. He dealt with multiple issues last year and it took a toll on his game. They need to find a way to keep him healthy for the bulk of the season and hopefully having a full off-season to actually work with him will allow that to finally happen. Moncada is going to rebound significantly with La Russa gone. Eloy should be able to play more if he DHs on a regular basis. Vaughn won’t wear down like he did this year if he doesn’t play the outfield. Anderson hopefully won’t miss a massive chunk of the season and his off the field bullshit should finally be in the past. Even if Grandal is cooked, the retuning positional group will much better than they were in 2022. On the pitching side, Giolito will likely be better if he can fix his mechanics over the off-season and ultimately his four seamer & slider. Kopech will better with a healthier knee and an arm that has fully recovered from a massive innings increase. I also don’t see why Cease is expected to regress. I think overall our four core starters will give us more in 2023 than they did in 2022 and that’s assuming continued age / health regression with Lynn. Is this a playoff team in its current form? Depends on how much better the core is under Grifol vs. La Russa and whether Hahn is finally able to address our couple major holes, but it’s not nearly as dire as you’re making it out to be.

It’s really not hard at all. A conservative ZiPS system has them winning 76 games with no additions. With any substantial improvement in health, I think this team has a .500ish type floor. Hitting 90 wins is the problem if the payroll is constrained to $180M or so.

25% increase in attendance and Jerry is going to cut payroll. Just a terrible businessman and horrible owner.

I think Colas is playing a prominent role regardless of payroll ceiling.

I’m certain it came from James Fegan, but see above for confirmation it’s not Jimmy suggesting this.

I could live with Yogurt plus one of those other guys. Just don’t see the Twins taking that package from us though.

I think you’d have to be crazy to trade Moncada right now. At least give him a chance of Grifol and see what you got. He’s worth his salary next year if he’s back to being a 3 to 4 win player.

Where else have you heard that? I know Eloy vs Wall is saying payroll will be down, but haven’t seen anything to suggest the $180M figure other than Fegan.

Or just want to bring him along a bit slower.

Teams like the Phillies & Jays are able to give a $100M+ contract every winter when they are going for it. Meanwhile, Jerry is tapped out and on the brink of bankruptcy after signing a couple high paid relievers.

He was good in 2020. And the Twins may want to move him because they two other young corner OFs that warrant playing time. I agree on the divisional aspect making this very far fetched though.

I don’t disagree with your core premise, but I wouldn’t categorize Kepler as old.

I don’t disagree, but sometimes teams can’t through to guys and they need a change of scenery. I could see Kepler being one of those guys, I’m just not convinced we’d be the ones able to tap into that potential. Regardless, I think this rumor is 100% BS given the sources. And even if our interest was real, I think the two sides aligning on fair compensation is very unlikely to happen.

At this point, we just got to hope Fegan was wrong on that $180M estimate, because I can’t see Hahn pulling enough miracles otherwise.

Oh I totally believe that Tony pushed them to bring Leury back, but Hahn still negotiated the contract and gave him a deal that kept him around longer than Tony’s two years remaining at the time. I don’t care if Leury’s agent said the Tigers were offering three years to make him their starter at 2B, Hahn 100% ended up giving a well above market contract to Leury. And what makes it even more frustrating is Hahn’s unwillingness to commit long-term to free agents at 2B & RF to avoid blocking prospects, but had no problem committing big dollars to a mediocre UT guy / reserve infielder despite having several guys in the minors who likely could have filled that role for pennies on the dollar by 2023.