Chicago White Sox

Watcha got $7M in his deal. I feel like Keuchel should be movable at $11M or so, which means eating $7M or $8M or taking a bad contract of similar value.

Having a late Thanksgiving dinner with my wife’s family today in Homer Glen. Already have been yelled at a dozen times the last few days for “blogging” too much as she calls it and will not have access to my phone starting around 4pm. As such, I’m expecting tons of crazy Sox rumors to happen concurrently starting at this time.

I would wager something happens soon as a result. But I think it’s good we haven’t seen us make a settling move yet at 2B or RF. They need to swing big at one of those positions and right now it’s better to have flexibility. But now that positional guys are starting to move, it will create a natural sense of urgency to get things done faster for all clubs with needs in these areas.

$17M guaranteed per Rosenthal which makes three years for Graveman look pretty reasonable.

Only further increases the chances of Kimbrel to Phillies trade.

No way, unless we get one back in a Kimbrel trade. Part of the reason of moving quickly on Graveman was you can now take your time and look for value to round out the pen.

They are 100% adding a left-handed bat. So if they add Segura at 2B, they will be acquiring a LH bat for RF one way or the other. The only possible exception is if they sign Scherzer and he eats up the bulk of our financial flexibility.

I still think this all comes down to who the left-handed bat they plan on adding is. If it’s Conforto or Schwarber (i.e. pure RF / DH type), then maybe they are already planning on going cheap with someone like Kemp for 2B. If 2B is truly the focus, then maybe they’re swinging for the fences with someone Ketel Marte as a backup plan to Semien. I really don’t expect Hernandez or Leury to be options unless multiple things go wrong.

Let’s be honest though, the market for $16M relievers is incredibly small. I’d wager there is far more risk than reward by holding and if you get a solid offer you should move Kimbrel now.

With Sanchez and Frazier off the board, it seems to suggest the Semien pursuits are legit (unlikely IMO) or a Kimbrel-Segura+ trade could happen (more likely). One way or the other, they must have a primary target in mind.

The Sox have made as many real moves as pretty much any AL team…?‍♂️

I’m talking hard connections from the national guys. James and a few others have leaked stuff, but it doesn’t seem like Nightengale, Rosenthal, Heyman, or Passan have leaked much about us until a move is about to happen. Hendriks being the one clear exception.

Fully agree on Hendriks, but other than that I feel there hasn’t been a ton of smoke on most of our largest signings from the national writers in the past. You and a few others have done a great job of sharing things, but I can’t think of a ton of moves that guys like Nightengale, Rosenthal, or Passan leaked early into discussions.

Regarding Scherzer, I just don’t see how the Mets can afford him. Obviously we don’t know what the luxury tax will look like, but Spotrac shows them with a luxury tax payrol of $231M after yesterday’s addition. The third tier under the current CBA is $250M, so even if they sign a normal starting pitcher or two they will exceed. Scherzer would cause them to blow it out of the water and I’m not sure if any team has hit that third threshold (but could be wrong there).

Encarnacion was leaked, but that was also a unique situation in which he wasn’t able to sign a contract immediately for geographical / personal reasons. I feel like Wheeler didn’t leak until it was coming down to the wire. Did Yaz actually leak? Maybe like 30 minutes before I got PM on it, but that one came out of nowhere. I don’t remember a ton of stuff on Keuchel, but could be wrong there. Hendriks was the one where there was a ton of rumors, but right or wrong I attribute that to being a La Russa oriented move.

Look at this board with certain players. Some posters absolutely despise Grandal despite being the exact player we signed up for. From what I can garner, it’s a mix of him coming off a horrible year and generally being a streaky player. And while I’d prefer a guy who is more consistent month to month, I’m going to focus primarily on the full season results and Conforto has been about as good as anyone against RHP since 2017.

Which is what I’m assuming and not a good indicator of what will happen if we sign an NL player.

How often are the Sox’s actual targets leaked out though? There was absolutely nothing from the true insiders on Graveman and I’m pretty sure that’s been the case the last few years for almost every major signing. The Sox like to operate in the shadows and I truly believe if you see someone like Nightengale mention a name (like with Ray & Semien) it’s misdirection.

I think if Conforto was coming off a normal year he would get a lot more. Unfortunately for him that’s not the case and GMs now have to bake some risk into their valuations. If you look at Steamer, they have Conforto projected for 2.5 years next year. I personally think he blows that projection out of the water, but I’m also not the GM and accountable if a major signing goes wrong. Additionally, front offices are more data driven than ever. And while I’ve pointed out the flaws of modern day projection models in that they ignore context, the reality is that 0.8 fWAR season will weighted into go forward forecasts to some extent even if they’re obviously aware of the hamstring injury. Meanwhile, Marte is the one coming off an excellent year (5.5 fWAR), is the best CF on the market (which will certainly garner a premium), and doesn’t have a draft pick attached to him. Steamer has him at 3.1 wins next year, which already factors in massive regression (rather than massive improvement for Michael). Even with a standard aging curve, both guys would provide similar value over the next four years. As such, I’d expect similar deals for both guys, with the factors outlined above for Marte giving a slight edge to Conforto’s youth and upside. Obviously I trust if you’re hearing something that suggests otherwise.

I think if Conforto can get more than the QO on a four year basis, so basically 4/$76M, he would jump all over that. And with Marte setting the market, I don’t know how Boras can expect more than that in all honesty. I think there’s a real chance he signs before the Dec 1st deadline now. I also wouldn’t be surprised if a Kimbrel trade is on hold until the Sox can finalize something for RF. Taking on Segura before you add a left-handed bat, puts Hahn in a tough spot. If Conforto is one of our primary targets, I could see him signing and a Kimbrel trade happening in quick succession over the next couple of days.

One year isn’t worth losing the pick and international slot IMO.

As always, take it FWIW:

Honestly, Marte and Canha signing should hopefully push Conforto’s market forward. I also think Marte’s price sets a ceiling as he’s widely considered the superior free agent.

Graveman just got three years, zero chance Jansen doesn’t unless he resigns with the Dodgers under team friendly terms.

Gotcha…makes sense.