Chicago White Sox

Given the differences in age (2.5 years younger) and contract expectations, I’d happily take Conforto over Semien. Also, interesting to see how much better Statcast views Michael as a hitter over Marcus. Year: Conforto | Semien 2017: 90 | 30 2018: 63 | 25 2019: 86 | 77 2020: 86 | 10 2021: 73 | 53 Obviously Semien has outproduced his Statcast projections (perhaps due to his pull heavy approach), but he lacks a long track of success and his offensive value recently has been tied to power despite limited hard contact. Just seems like a guy whose offensive game could fall off pretty quickly if the power starts to fade. Again, give me Conforto at less years and a lower AAV, even if he doesn’t bring the defensive value Marcus does.

There it is

I just don’t see it. It adds another right-handed, poor defensive corner type to the mix and we already have plenty of those. The guy I could see us silently pursuing is Gausman. He’s not a Scherzer type #1 obviously, but he’d give us another quality arm at the top of the rotation, is highly durable, and has a connection to Katz. I’m guessing it wouldn’t be a popular move here, but I’d absolutely love it if paired with a Conforto signing.

Oh 100% agree. I find most of these projections to be extremely conservative and obviously they lack context around injuries, personal issues, COVID, etc. Still an interesting data point to consider though.

Lol…fair enough, but that was us technically absorbing a bad contract to enhance the desire of a current player to play for us. The A’s don’t go “Yoelqui is a 40 FV prospect, but because his last name is Cespedes we value as a 50 FV kid”.

We’d probably have to tweak the deals some, say add an extra option year for Kopech, but it’s directionally something I’d be very interested for both of them. I think securing those guys for an extra year or two could really help extend the window and now is the time given they won’t be pre-arb again.

Fully agree

Yup. We should be looking to extend Cease and/or Kopech if prices are that reasonable and we can buy out a couple free agent years.

Take Alcantara off your offseason plans:

Let the games begin!

There have already been rumors that Semien wants a deal before the 1st. And I think Conforto is polarizing enough of a free agent that if the right offer is made he’d potentially jump quickly on that. Also, Boras isn’t going to want all his guys out there post lockout as you typically want a phasing of these things. I think guys pursuing massive contracts will wait things out, but I expect a couple of his guys signing before that 1st.

White initial ZiPS projections. I think some of these are way too low and it’s clear that ZiPS is not projecting the rebounds / development I’m expecting from Eloy & Vaughn. That being said, our needs are very clear from the chart below. We all know the big three (2B, RF, & SP), but we’re definitely going to need a ton of RH relief help (especially if we trade Kimbrel) and a backup catcher. Regarding the latter, I just don’t think Zavala or Collins are major league backup catchers and we should target a defensive oriented vet towards the end of the offseason.

Lol…that’s what it sounded like. But I figured there was some example from last year he was pointing to and I can’t for the life of me figure it out. No one fits that billing and it’s just such an extreme example.

With Thanksgiving right around the corner, I think we see some action before the holiday and another big wave of moves leading up to the 1st. Based on what insiders have been saying, the Sox are looking to strike early with an impact piece and if I had to guess that player will be Michael Conforto. Adding Conforto as our first big move does several things for us. First, it addresses the need for a left-handed power bat and improved lineup balance, which takes pressure off having to address those things with our 2B addition. Second, it theoretically makes Sheets or Vaughn expendable via trade if need be. I’m not looking to move either guy necessarily, but if there’s a potential star that can be had at 2B or in the rotation you can now consider it. Finally, it allows us to spend the next couple months focusing on a smaller subset of needs with a reduced scope of options (less focus on free agents, more focus on trades), then having to come out of the lockout with a completely empty canvas.

I don’t know how in the world you think a 2.5 to 3.5 win pitcher with one year of control is worth Eloy or Vaughn. Like how does that even begin to enter your mind? I mean, Olsen is a significantly better player and has two years of control left. They aren’t even remotely comparable assets. Regarding Cespedes, teams don’t trade for players because of “family connections”. You really need to stop with these Disney movie fantasies.

What’s wrong with Bassitt?

I am so confused in what you’re talking about here. Care to elaborate further?

Oh not disagreeing with you guys at all. It’s a shit system no doubt. And you’re right, it was two years had he waited. Still pretty nuts that he didn’t get the Angel’s entire bonus and only like $2M. Dude sacrificed so much coming over when he did.

Couldn’t have Ohtani waited one year and been an unrestricted free agent?

100% agree. Eloy’s power will return next and dude will be a special hitter.

I did in fact believe two whales was once possible, but that was also before Jerry capped us at eight years for Machado and forced us to use those ridiculous vesting options to “stay competitive” with our bids. I have learned from my mistakes and my children pay for it every day by living in the god forsaken south. As for the rest of your post, I like the way you’re thinking! I don’t agree with trading for Buxton (way too expensive / risky), but it’s officially time to go big or go home. I still think guys like Semien and Conforto fit in that regard and would quickly get us closer to a World Series.

What now? Not sure where the Seagar stuff is coming from as I have never once suggested him as an option. And even when I propose signing Scherzer, I still don’t believe it will actually happen. Just what I’d personally do and it theoretically fits within long-term pitching concerns that generally drive Jerry’s decision-making (and FWIW he would cost less than what we offered Wheeler). I do think Semien is attainable and Conforto is 100% a realistic get. In fact, I fully expect Conforto to end up on the Sox. I think he is their #1 target. And to be clear here, I’m not expecting you to be optimistic, but rather to avoid the unfounded pessimism that has taken over your posts. You should never be lumped in with Parkman, but this offseason at least you’ve made some comments that come off as being Jack’s for their ridiculous negativity. You are better than this Caulfield.

Yeah, the $100M stuff is really just stemming from Parkman / Caulfied pessimism. My guess is he gets a contract very similar to what Grandal got.

FIFY