Chicago White Sox

100% agree. We’ve wasted tons of money over the years on B & C tier guys. Let’s finally stop throwing away money and just sign arguably the best reliever in baseball while the rest of our relief corp is dirt cheap. Hendriks is potentially a game-changer for us, especially come October.

Kluber is getting a one year deal.

Jerry is not going beyond 5 years for a game-changing SP, so outside of Springer this is the next best option IMO.

I don’t think this is true.

Thanks for sharing James!

At this point I’m expecting something around 4/$50M getting agreed to next week.

I’d assume Kannapolis. With most minor leaguers missing a year of development and Great Falls now eliminated, I’d expect a pretty loaded Kannapolis roster next year.

Not as good as last year’s insane class, but this should be a really good draft for WRs.

Just my opinion, but I think there is a difference between Chris Getz hyping up prospects in a random interview and people like James getting intel from people in the know.

Give me Richards over Quintana

While true, there are a lot of dumb and/or uninformed people who will never understand these fucks were trying undermine democracy.

Gotcha...I thought this was in regard to Musgrove. Unfortunately for Lopez he has probably run out of starting opportunities and will need prove himself in the bullpen. Maybe in shorter stints his stuff will play up and he’ll be able to maintain better focus.

That’s great, but what did Lopez do materially different in those starts rather than in his bad ones? If the answer is nothing, I’m not sure what you’re arguing other than almost all pitchers have good & bad starts which no one is debating.

You keeping saying this about his last 32 starts, but he put up a 3.91 FIP over those starts with good peripherals. You keep anchoring on ERA as the end all be all for some reason and even then he was at 4.36 over this same period of time, so saying he was terrible is simply not true whether you consider advanced metrics or not.

I wouldn’t overpay for Musgrove and I do think that someone will ultimately be willing to give up more than we would, but it’s at least worth exploring IMO.

I’m ignoring them because as I stated in my post, his pitch usage changed substantially and the spin rates on his two breaking balls increased significantly last year, reflecting a fundamentally different, more effective pitcher. So I don’t really care what his results were when he was throwing way more 4 seamers & cutters, because if I were the GM and acquiring him I’m expecting the 2020 version of Musgrove to be here to stay. And I don’t care about his ERA that much either, since it can be impacted by all sorts of factors such as poor defense and flukey bullpen strand rates. Again, my question is whether or not those changes are substainable or simply result of a random eight game sample size. If my pitching coaches and pro scouts believe that the 2020 version of Musgrove is for real, then I’m totally fine giving up a couple prospects that are further out or have option issues (like Adolfo) for a guy who might be a damn good #3 starter and is controllable for another two seasons for dirt cheap. If not, then I would just sign a guy like Richards to fill the #4 spot. But in this day & age, what a pitcher has been in the past isn’t the end all be all if he’s demonstrated a path towards success via changes to or improvements in his pitch repertoire & mix as things can suddenly click and transform said pitcher into something fundamentally better.

I don’t get why you are only focused on ERA and ignoring every other metric, but his xFIP would have been 3.89 even if you exclude those last two starts. But real talk, why are we only excluding the good starts and not the three bad ones to open the season where he was clearly the victim to flukey home-run and strand rates? There is a reason his ERA sucked at the point in time you are referring to and nothing about that ERA is predictive about expected performance. The real question is can he maintain a 44% usage rate of his breaking balls and a +50% whiff rate on those pitches over the course of a full season. If he can, he will be an incredibly successful pitcher going forward and would a great addition to our rotation.

Looking at some of Keuchel’s Statcast data and other advanced metrics, it’s very clear the dude is going to regress hard next year. He should still be a solid starter and will likely outperform what projection systems expect out of him given the strength of our infield defense, but a sub 3.00 ERA is incredibly unlikely to happen next year. As such, I think I’ve convinced myself we need to add Musgrove to the mix. I’m still very high on Cease and am hopeful that with some grip / mechanical changes he can reduce the cutting effect of his 4 seamer and improve his command of the pitch, which will be critical for him to ever make the leap to TOR starter. However, until that actually happens he can’t be relied on to be more than a #5 type. With Kopech on a strict innings limit and not having pitched in two years, he can’t be counted on to be anything more than a partial back-end contributor next year. Given the fact these two arms are still works in process, adding a reliable #4 starter is an absolute must for us. And if we can add one who has #3 starter upside like Musgrove, all the better as it may help prevent against worse than expected fall-off from Dallas next year. Joe Musgrove had a very promising 2020 season, finishing with a xwOBA in the 81th percentile and pitching at what was effectively a 4 fWAR pace. Looking at his Statcast data, two things stand out as potential drivers for what was a YoY gain in performance. First & foremost, he started using his breaking balls (slider & curve) much more at the expense of his 4 seamer & cutter, which is what most damage against him was on. In 2018 he used his curve & slider a combined ~21%, in 2019 it was a combined ~32%, and finally in 2020 it was a combined ~44%. More interesting, he experienced sizable spikes in the spin rates on both of these pitches last year, which just so happens to correspond with the whiff rates on these pitches from sitting around 40% in 2019 to 50%+ in 2020. In aggregate, these changes led to a whiff rate of 33% in 2020, which reflects an 8.3 point improvement vs. 2019. That’s absolute insanity and makes him a completely different pitcher if sustainable. Now, therein lies the crux of the problem. Did Musgrove & the Pirates push for changes to his pitch usage and other things that could have improved the spin rates on his breaking balls? I obviously have no idea and given this is an eight game sample we’re looking at, it’s not a slam dunk that this version of Musgrove is sustainable over a 32 start season. That being said, for the right price, I’m willing to find out. If the Pirates are willing to accept a package along the lines of Thompson, Adolfo, & Beard (for all I know that may be way too light) I think I’d go ahead and pull the trigger. At worst he should be a solid #4 type, but the potential is there for him to leap frog Keuchel and become our #3 starter, which come October could be the difference between winning and losing a playoff series.

To be honest, with how many good QB prospects there are in this draft it’s almost unacceptable for the Bears not to select one unless they are going to fully commit to Mitch. And given we declined his 5th year option, I’m quite terrified at what it would take to bring him back. Mitch has looked better as of late, but will he ever be good enough to take us to the promised land without an elite defense? I don’t see that in him at all.

Oh no doubt, but given where he is in his career, he’s probably next in line with a rebound if he’s even open to an extension.

They have already offered an extension to Cease and he rejected. That being said, he’s probably still next in line amongst the three you listed.

I don’t think a single team would allow him to pitch every 4th day, so while he might want that I don’t think there is a chance in hell he gets it.

I have no idea why you think these guys are all suddenly going to be elite prospects. Three of the guys have never even played baseball in the U.S. Is it in the range of outcomes? Possibly, because these guys all have high ceilings, but the game is filled with prospects like this and the hit rates are fairly low. Hoyer took these prospects because the elite guys, more proven guys were probably off limits and given where their rebuild is heading, he’s able to gamble on kids that are years away. I think you’re giving Hoyer way too much credit here, he simply made the best he could out of a shit hand he was dealt due to the Ricketts’ poor financial situation.

If they really on a tight budget and want Hendriks above all else, Musgrove may be the better play than rolling the dice on whatever free agent starter might be willing to take $8M or less.