thxfrthmmrs

Does Greg have a brother who's a Twins fan? Here's a couple other gems from the same poster in the same thread: In reference to Yolmer being a GG and had an OPS+ of 80 last year:

For every Astros there’s a Rays, Indians, or A’s, where they could stay competitive through analytics and make the playoffs every couple years, their revenue only saw minimal growth YoY after adjusted for inflation. When teams don’t spend enough and trade away star players before they become expensive and have to resort to under the radar options and tier 3/4 free agents, it doesn’t excite fans a whole lot and put butts on the seats.

His split finger has gotten a lot better, and he started throwing it a lot more and is now a legit put away pitch. I’ll say that if Lopez doesn’t improve, Bailey would be a better #5 starter than Lopez is for us. I think Graterol is the X factor for them, whenever he comes up. He could have Cease type impact for them.

For his projected BA, I think the best metrics to use his xBA from last season, which already factors in his EV, launch angle, and sprint speed for certain batted balls. While his xBA last year was .291, I expect his K% to continue to come down and BB% to come up, some of the said effect could be negated by de-juicing of the ball. All being said l think a .290/.360/.550 season is not unreasonable, meaning the projections in the OP, which most likely factors in a multi-year average rather than players making sustainable improvements, is too bearish on him.

Actually it doesn’t. I’m a big proponent of a salary floor in baseball, similar to the NBA, who sets it at 90% of the cap. It may be an unrealistic initial target for MLB, like Parkman suggested it could be 70-80% of the cap and gets adjusted over time. This obviously would require greater revenue sharing amongst teams which would have a hard time getting owners sign off on. However with a floor put in place the competitive balance of the league would become a lot closer and theoretically the middle of the road veteran players would get paid as well.

The GM takes the hit for drafting the wrong player but the coaching staff takes the hit for failing to develop the QB. Pace missed out on all pro talents like Mahomes and Watson but Trubisky has the tools to be an above average QB that we saw glimpses of last year. Part of Nagy’s job was to harness the potential of MT and he’s failing to do that.

This. And absolutely no question that Moncada should bat 2nd, for the same reason Trout, Yelich, and Judge batting 2nd. Many analysis have shown that you want your player with best combination of power and OBP there.

Is this the Marvel Cinematic Universe?

He was hit harder than ever (but so was rest of the league) and his xwOBA puts him close to his 2017 season, which is still a darn good reliever. I suspect Mets would ask for at least Stiever or Dunning.

That’s reason to not fire a coach but not reason to hire one. What was his calling card as an NFL coach has been nonexistent for one and a half season now (the offensive output today was inexcusable). On top of that, the franchise QB has took a huge step back in a year we expected major growth, the team has gone through games this year where they didn’t seem ready to play, and they struggled in fundamentals of the game, especially blocking (not just the OL, but RBs and WRs also). They went .500 because they had too much talent and beat up on some pretty bad team. Nagy has that to thank because that’s what saved his job.

Are we talking about the same player? I had him on my fantasy team and all he did was throw meatballs over the plate that gets tagged for long balls. 37% GB rate won’t go pretty at GRF either. He’s been inconsistent for about two years now. Off the top of my head I would take Harris, Cishek, Hudson and McHugh over him.

But when a better reliever could be had for $5M, it isn’t worth trading a top 10 prospect for.

What does Matt Nagy bring to the table for this team?

I wouldn’t trade for Givens. Maddeningly inconsistent and would cost $3M+. Not a better option than options in FA.

MLBTR painted a much more bleak picture here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/white-sox-rumors-bullpen-relievers.html “Collectively, White Sox relievers ranked 14th in the Majors in ERA (4.33), but that’s largely a function of the quality results posted by Colome, Bummer, Marshall and Cordero. And there’s also reason to take that number with a grain of salt; the Chicago bullpen’s matching 4.69 FIP and xFIP ranked 18th and 21st among MLB teams while posting the fifth-highest walk rate (10.8 percent) and fifth-worst strikeout rate (21.7 percent) in all of baseball. White Sox relievers were tied with Royals relievers for the worst K-BB% in the Majors.” The bullpen definitely had some luck on their side and even overachieved last season. Even if you factor in positive regression from Herrera and Fry to bounce back, it is still not a very good bullpen. As far as reinforcements go,I don’t want to count on anyone from upper minors or NRIs to break out. If someone does great, I’m sure we will find a spot for them, but damn it lets go out and sign two of the top arms left and build a playoff caliber bullpen (provided they aren’t more than 2 year deals). A good bullpen shortens ballgames and helps this young staff tremendously.

I’ve been beating the Asdrubal Cabrera drum pretty hard. He would be a perfect utility infielder off the bench.

I think regression is likely for Colome, Marshall and perhaps Cordero. The bigger factor however is those guys were pitching often times in non-competitive games or on the losing side. It’s a lot different now that we’re trying to protect a lead. I don’t know who I could count on in the 7th or 8th to protect a one run lead besides Bummer.

The need for a platoon upgrade over Leury and Engel has been overblown. Any platoon guys left are only marginal upgrades when all things considered. Also with the 3 batter rule, the way to combat teams bringing in a LOOGY type to face Mazara is to put a lefty killer after him.

Talk about a fucking slippery slope.

I am trying not to be overly optimistic, but if Moncada/Giolito keep pace with last season, Robert put up a ROY type of year and one of Cease/Kopech/Lopez turns the corner I think this team could be a playoff team and then some. Obviously it take a lot of things to go right but it isn’t out of possibility either. If we’re a true playoff team at mid season and needing another high end SP then I would consider making a splash.

Those are bWAR numbers. Grandal is a much more valuable player in fWAR's eyes due to pitch framing, which is one of its factors for a measuring defensive value of a catcher.

We could be getting anywhere from 16-20 WARs next season from the grouping Moncada, Eloy, Giolito, Kopech, Cease and Lopez at a chump change of a couple millions. That is 1/75th of their cost in open market. The free agency spending you mentioned are only made possible having these guys on the roster. Had we not “tank” by trading away the likes of Sale, Eaton, Q, Melky, etc, none of this would be possible, period.

Yea 2 year deal is max I would go on a guy like McHugh, and $12M is probably the most money I would go as well. Unfortunately we need a high end RP to supplement this bullpen and we aren’t getting one for just one year deals (I speculate that Harris will also end up getting a 2 year deal somewhere)

You really think this rebuild would have went anywhere without tearing it down and getting Moncada, Eloy, and Giolito in return?

I personally would not hesitate to sign Mchugh to a 2 year deal. That’s a fair contract for a high end RP anyways and he’s been incredibly effective in that role last 2 years. And perhaps putting him in the pen full time would help preserve his elbow. What I like about McHugh over other RP options is even if he’s a full time RP he could easily be a weapon as a multi-inning high leverage RP.