maxjusttyped

If Cesar is a better player/hitter than Segura next season, I wouldn't be surprised. There's a worthy conversation to be had on if it's rational for the Sox to flip from acquiring Kimbrel/Cesar to be 2 year solutions and then bailing on it because of 2 bad months. At least in Cesar's case, the Sox could probably bring him back for cheaper than his option price. But hopefully they're aiming higher at 2B and that should have been the plan all along anyways. But I think there's a lot of value in Segura's ability to play a passable SS. Cesar obviously doesn't give you that, and I don't think there's anyone in the organization currently that would project to be above replacement level at SS aside from TA. Even in the best case scenario, it seems like Tim is capped at around 140 games because the Sox give him so many maintenance days during the season. He's been on the IL 3 straight years with various soft tissue injuries. The Sox have to be ready to play a chunk of their season without him next year, whether that's because a soft tissue injury flares up again, or the number of days off he'll naturally get throughout the course of the season.

Looks like the Dodgers didn't add him to their 40 man. I have no idea what to make of this, but he posted BABIP's above .400 in High-A & AA last year. I can't recall ever seeing that from a guy who played substantial amounts of times at 2 different levels.

I waited to post that tweet until I saw multiple beat writers reporting it was for just cash. I'm shocked no team was willing to deal a marginal prospect + cash for him if that's what the Rays really wanted. I think we all would have been very excited to have Honeywell as a lottery ticket arm on the Sox.

The level of depth in the Rays organization is incredible. Myers would be a guy people would be excited about in almost any other org and they don't have a spot for him.

Kimbrel for Segura is as obvious of a trade as it gets, if the Phillies are willing to deal from their big league roster.

Player dev also deserves a lot of credit for turning Dunning & Heuer into valuable trade chips. I know Dunning had pedigree, but they handled him well, particularly after he had TJS.

The Mets received draft pick compensation in exchange for Thor leaving. There's no comparable player to Rodon that accepted the qualifying offer. Guys with legitimate health question marks or that aren't elite players turned it down. The only guy who accepted is a 34 year old 1 team lifer that plays a non premium position. It's just impossible to look at the FA landscape and think Rodon wouldn't do better than 1 for 18M, which is why I think it's fair to say not offering him the QO was a mistake. Why leave the pick/draft pool space on the table when the system can use all the help it can get?

They're willing to sign someone to a ~35M+ AAV deal but weren't willing to gamble on a minuscule chance Carlos accepts the QO? I suppose that's possible, but it's giving this front office quite the benefit of the doubt and expecting them to thread the worlds tightest needle if that is indeed the case.

Given the contracts we've seen so far, I don't think it's impossible that Scherzer breaks the AAV record on a 2 or 3 year deal.

It's looking like a good year to be a FA SP.

You listed two great examples that I think were both very obvious in the moment mistakes. No hindsight required. I think not giving Rodon the QO offer is another one, but we'll have to see how it plays out.

If Noah Syndergaard can land a 1/21M deal despite not pitching for 2 years, I think Rodon would at *minimum* be able to get that when he's coming off a 5 WAR season.

If you look at how QO decisions have gone this off-season, that seems very, very unlikely.

I think a Stroman signing can be ruled out, unfortunately. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/free-agent-marcus-stroman-says-no-amount-of-money-would-get-him-to-play-for-white-soxs-tony-la-russa/

Carlos Rodon's 2nd half numbers: 2.51 ERA/3.26 FIP 31.6% K rate 5.7% BB rate. Those are CY caliber numbers if you prorate them over a full season. I'm not advocating for signing Rodon to a 5 year extension or anything like that. All I'm saying is the Sox should have extended him a QO offer (which he almost certainly would have rejected) and if they ended up with him on a 1 year deal at 18M that wouldn't be a bad outcome either.

What's the track record for 39 year olds coming off TJS? I don't want this to come across like I'm arguing against signing Verlander, because I'm not. But the questions with him are as legitimate as they are with Rodon.

Even if they have legitimate reasons to be spooked about Rodon, he's coming off a season where he was clearly the best pitcher on a staff with 2 other CY candidates on it as well. If you get "stuck" with that guy on a 1 year deal that doesn't seem like the worst outcome to me. Especially if they're already budgeting for a high AAV starter like Verlander to replace him anyways.

When players with legitimate question marks or that aren't star level players like Syndergaard, Verlander (presumably), Iglesias, Chris Taylor, Conforto etc are turning down the QO I think that's a pretty clear indication that Rodon would have as well.

I think it's strange when you consider the context of the Sox not offering the QO to Rodon which he almost certainly would have declined anyways.

Sox were rumored to be interested in him before the deadline. I know everyone is (rightfully) super into Semien, but Story makes just as much sense for this team, imo

If you want to be optimistic about this years payroll, the 2006 White Sox had the 4th highest payroll in baseball. There is precedent for Jerry spending *after* the team has shown him it's a real contender. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/topics/payrolls/byYear.asp?Y=2006

Even if the Sox don't trust Rodon on a long-term deal, not "risking" him accepting the qualifying offer (which he almost certainly wouldn't have) to then pursue a 38 year old coming off TJS does seem a bit strange to me.

Sheets has looked overmatched, but that should have been a great AB ending in a walk