The Ultimate Champion

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jun 24, 2013 -> 09:49 AM) I dont think anyone here will be happy with the package that Reed brings back, closers have not had a history of bringing back impact type players. The best comp deal for a closer recently was probably when the A's sent Bailey to the Red Sox with Ryan Sweeney for Josh Reddick, Raul Alcantara, and Miles Head. Head is the #7 prospect in the A's system according to BA. Reddick played himself to a career year last year but has regressed back to the level of a fourth OF. The Red Sox also traded David Murphy, Engle Beltre, and Kason Gabbard to the Rangers one year for a depleted Eric Gagne trying to make a comeback, who was paid well & a rental. That's kind of a good comp too if you swap Gabbard the fringey 5th starter type with a really good prospect. Beltre was a high ceiling prospect far away, Murphy was a potentially useful former 1st rounder labeled a bust, but Texas has gotten a lot of use out of him. If you do that type of deal & switch it around where the really good prospect is the headliner + the MLB-ready change of scenery player with talent who may be useful is the second guy + high ceiling kid in A ball the scouts love but is a long ways off, then that's a great format for a deal. Also Reddick has regressed but let's not forget how badly the Red Sox lost on that deal. When Reddick was hitting all those HRs it looked like a massive mistake by Boston, now it just looks bad period. IMO a Reed trade can bring you as much back as Rios or Peavy, maybe more given Rios' ability to disappear & Peavy being on the DL. The chances of us trading Reed for talent and then replacing him internally have to be a ton higher than the chances of us trading either Rios or Peavy and replacing those players internally.

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Jun 24, 2013 -> 09:36 AM) First, TUC this is a great thread that I think everyone is pretty split on. I've been advocating a trade ever ssince the team crashed. However, I think it's a case-by-case situation. Gotta do it for the right package or try again in the offseason. Gotta take advantage of someone desperate if possible. Also TUC, don't ruin a great thread by stating Hahn is reading it. C'mon now. Anyone have a hypothesis for his K ratios here? Probably just getting ahead with the fastball all the time, being predictable & leaving it up in the zone more, then having to use the slider to get the K. Check out the HR rate compared to SV situations. 3 HR vs. 237 batters against 6 HR vs. 170 batters, also the BB rate is a whole lot higher in SV situations than non-SV. He probably mixes things up a lot more in SV situations, also probably is more careful, whereas non-SV he's just getting the ball over the plate, leading to fewer BBs but more hard hit balls. Maybe fangraphs or something shows pitch differentials in splits. I dunno. Don't use that site, I don't have the will to calculate.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jun 23, 2013 -> 08:05 PM) Why do you think he's suddenly going to lose all this value? He's only 24, he was a highly regarded prospect, and is currently getting the job done. Heads22 just layeth the smacketh down, did you not seeth that great event? I'm in the kitchen You smell what I'm cookin? IT DOESNT MATTER what his numbers are. They can only go down from here with the rest of this sinking ship. We almost swept the Royals, yesterday was like the highest point of the season since we played the Nats and got our behinds handed to us. Yeah. Trade Reed, that's all I'm saying, you'll get a return that's good, better than he'll be worth. Why is this so controversial? There shoulodn't be any controversy. This shoudl be unanimous. That's all I'm saying.

I think it'll just make things worse, more average/decent players getting paid like stars, higher arbitration costs making it harder to keep players for 6 years, more bad deals, more average player + ton of cash for middle-tier prospect deals, etc. These f***ers all across the board are making too much cash. If the going rate for an ace rises from $25M per over 5-6 years to $30M per over 7 years then lol, f*** this garbage, I hope they all get hit by trains.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jun 23, 2013 -> 06:39 PM) This is spot-on. Crain is going to be the top reliever on the market and he loses all value to us in 1 month. Therefore, Hahn needs to focus on selling him to teams and maximizing his value. We should also have Thornton & Lindstrom available as lower cost options to teams. We don't need to over-saturate the market by adding Reed in the mix right now. If a team calls about Reed then Hahn should tell them he's not available. That's going to tell teams that it's going to cost a f***-ton to get him. Force a team to make an insane offer or otherwise hold on to him for now. He's not going to lose that much value between now and next year's deadline. Cue Farmio on closers in non-save situations.

Put it this way: if you WIN the deal IMMEDIATELY on paper AND you appear to be better off because of that deal over the length Sale's contract, then yes, you trade him. And that doesn't happen when you are dealing in prospects. If there's a team ready to pay with a bunch of Major Leaguers then sure. Not going to happen though, especially when Price & Stanton are on the market for the right amount of talent back. Both BTW should be cheaper than Sale since Sale comes at cost certainty without the FA clouds hanging over his head (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs? etc.) how many teams can or would dare to outbid those guys?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 23, 2013 -> 05:01 PM) Of course, I'm not sure trading Delmon Young to the Tigers (helping them greatly) ended up making the Tigers feel the TWINS were "coming for them" exactly. It's got to be a prospect that's going to cost them a pretty price who goes on to become an All-Star. Like John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander. The kind of trade people in DET will be talking about 20-30 years later. Delmon Poop wasn't getting arb. That was their Liriano to us deal kind of, not really a Reed comparison, and you're right, we would need something back that our FO would consider a special return. And for that special return they could take the whole damn pen, knock yourselves out Tigers. I don't care if they win the WS this year, if it's not us then any of the other 29 teams can do it for all I care. Okay maybe not the Cubs, not because I hate them but because I'd never hear the end of it.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jun 23, 2013 -> 04:44 PM) Just like in a court of law there are no yes or no answers I've been a juror though. It's pretty much yes or no from what I could tell.

No.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 23, 2013 -> 04:31 PM) He should be fired if he took it. Garcia is not that good. Garcia is 22 & MLB ready. He's putting up numbers that, you are right, are not really "good" right now (.286/.328/.378 in 128 career MLB PA). But the only question on him really is the power, and if he finds that, you are talking about trading a closer for a potential all-star and our future RF. If Garcia was putting up power numbers he wouldn't be available at all, to anyone, outside of maybe a Stanton/Price deal or something of that order. To get a player who is already through the MiLB process with a very high ceiling and 6 years control, and seemingly with a pretty good floor as well, for a closer without extraordinary stuff? That's about as low-risk as it gets when it comes to big, potentially future-altering deals. It's much easier to "win" a closer deal than say a Peavy deal. I mean, if you think you can get a better player for Reed than that then great, I just don't think you can. And Castallenos, okay sure, but how realistic is it to expect a team's top prospect at the absolute height of his value for ANY of our players? See: Olt, Mike on this forum, as far as how a guy can go from "would you trade Sale for him?" to "I'd take him for Crain" in a few months time. Why is it even smart to buy unproven players at such a high price, even if you can? And that said, the Tigers may very well laugh us off the phone if we proposed Reed for Garcia. I'm just saying, MLB-ready position player who is young & has a very high ceiling is the type of player that you target if you're offering Reed, and if you get it offered to you, the deal should be done.

And good God, Soxtalking pro-Reed traders are like internet libertarians, you guys all say yes & s*** but then nobody shows up to vote. Vote YES on a Reed trade. Hahn is probably reading this right now. Why wouldn't he be?

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Jun 23, 2013 -> 04:04 PM) I don't like to pretend to know a player's trade value because, as fans, nobody knows and we're usually wrong. If you can get 2 position prospects for him, you do it. Closers have a short shelf life. By the time we are in a position to need an elite closer, he might not even be good anymore. This. We really know nothing. We don't have access to all these pro scouts, front office execs, etc. We had stats, little blurbs, second & third-hand old info, write-ups by people who never even watched the player, sometimes little snippets of video. But if you are in discussions with a team that needs a closer badly, and they offer say a SP prospect in AA who Don Cooper just LOVES, or a position player also very close who the organization is extremely high on & believes (regardless of what is out there in print) is a potential star & is going to see action this year, then you make that deal. You have to trust your personnel. You can't run an organization without risk. If Hahn, KW, Buddy Bell, Laumann, etc. all sign off on a prospect & all believe in that player then you have to have the balls to make that move. Even if it is the Tigers. In fact, I'd kind of like to see the competitive attitude & ballsiness that it would take to potentially hand the Tigers a WS in exchange for a better shot at beating them a couple years down the road. Like, we'll give you this help now, but 2 years & you're f***ed, we're coming for you. I'd like that.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jun 23, 2013 -> 03:54 PM) Since you said "shop" and not trade. Yes. You shop everyone, trade is another thing. I don't think you shop Sale. Also I think when you are shopping a player you are focusing on him because you want a good return. There's no point of shopping Dunn or Paulie for example.

QUOTE (winninguglyin83 @ Jun 23, 2013 -> 03:54 PM) Sure. Let's trade him and go back to the days of Billy Koch. Would send a message to many fans that the Sox just don't get a bleep. We had Keith Foulke before Koch. And after Koch we had Flash Gordon, Bobby Jenks, Sergio Santos, then Reed. There was a Shingo year mixed in with a half season of an insanely effective Hermanson. Really, the closer days for us have been pretty good.

Re: "heavily shopped" think DBacks with Justin Upton. Obviously these are 2 very different players in terms of quality and we can't expect that type of return, but what the BDacks did was they let all of baseball know that not only was Upton available, but they actually *wanted* to deal him for what they saw as their price. The first go-round nothing got done so they pulled him off the block. The second time the Braves stepped up & the deal was made. That's kind of what I'm talking about here, Hahn letting everyone else know that he would like to use Reed to add talent to the organization, but the price is going to be high and for good reason. If you get lowball offers then you pull him off the block.

Me say YES.

Yes or no, no bulls***ty answers like "only if we get a ton more than he's worth" or something. Do you, right now, begin to shop Reed for what you would consider appropriate market value for a pre-arb closer at mid season, yes or no.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jun 23, 2013 -> 02:45 PM) Obviously nobody is advocating dumping Reed for Nestor Molina or Simon Castro. If that's all you get back then you wouldn't make the trade. But let's say for example, Addison Reed nets you a guy like Matt Adams or Nick Castellanos. You would have to make that trade. He is a f***ing relief pitcher. Those guys are much much more valuable. You couldn't get either of those guys or a guy similar for Reed though so it is irrelevant. They don't have to trade Addison Reed. He's not a guy that you must keep either though. If there's an offer that "makes the team better" you make it. Guys like Reed can be replaced. Right, exactly. Is Reed going to develop into a starter anytime soon? He's not f***ing Mariano. Cripes.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 23, 2013 -> 12:33 PM) You make a big deal about top 100 rankings, then say this would be a great trade? Reed was once ranked 66. Garcia just hit the board this year at 74. Trading Reed for a guy that projects to be average makes as little sense as your idea for Danish. If Reed for Garcia straight up was on the table right now & Hahn didn't pull the trigger then I believe he should be fired immediately.

If we trade them Reed & Tigers, we are trading them 2 players currently performing at their absolute ceiling and we're trading them for full market vlaue. Great idea. And in Reed's case, we're probably trading him at the highest value he'll ever have in his career, because as he gets more expensive he's probably not going to get any better than he is now, and he'll be under control for a shorter period of time. Yeah, do it. And if we're getting back a potential difference maker (buying low) on someone very talented, then we're taking a very small risk all considered while looking at a huge potential gain. If the Tigers would do that deal & the Sox like Castawhatever, do it. And if they insist on Joe Borchard Jr. then we'll give them Joe Borchard Jr. & let's get someone back too. But what about Crain, Reed, Thornton, cash all for Tiggers prospects? Great idea. Then let's stick it to 'em hard.

Sounds like you've got a case of the Sundays.

I'm saying that for a closer I think Reed has an average arm. I think he's an average closer who is playing above his head. I think you can get a lot out of a team maybe like Detroit if not Detroit specifically because winning games now matters a whole to them. When you have that many star & superstar players and you are in the weakest division in the league, and coming off another failed WS appearance, you need to win. For a team with major closer issues, a good quality closer is going to be worth more than he'd normally be worth, since having that type of player allows a manager to provide set roles for his relievers which can strengthen the entire pen. Conversely, with us, the pen isn't all that great now & will be trash once Thornton, Crain, and maybe Lindstrom are gone. Reed will be worth less to us than typical, and IMO it's a good bet that his value will probably drop later in the year as he is left trying to clean up the s*** his penmates put him in. You say there's no reason to trade him because he's cheap & young. Okay. Then you would agree that we need MLB-ready young players, right? How are we supposed to get those then? Because on the position side we really have a bunch of nothing. If you are in the position the Sox are in then there is no good reason to hang on to your Reed. Again, he's not that kind of arm. Someone was saying about trying to get Avisail Garcia from the Tigers in a package where we sent out Reed and another reliever like Crain. f***ing do it please! If it's possible, do it. You don't trade Reed for a few scraps, you dangle him out there (especially in a package with Thornton, Crain, or Lindstrom for a team with a bad pen) looking for a player who is a good bet to be an average MLB starting position player or better. And if you can land an MLB ready talent with a nice floor and star potential for a reliever or two without dynamite stuff then you do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it hard f*** yeah.

Yes I did. Thank you very much Mr. Caulfield for correcting me.

Huh? There's a huge difference between Sale & Reed. Sale is a building block, Reed is a part. Reed rocketed through the minors and barely made the top-100 prospect lists. He has a closer's mentality but just recently Bobby Jenks, Sale, Santos all had much better stuff. He's not that kind of arm. You're selling high because you need talent, and because you should be able to fill out that role during the regular process of auditioning power arms which is inherit to really every rebuilding/reloading project. Also, unlike starting pitchers, closers quickly make their market rates through arbitration. You can't even expect the typical 6 years from a young closer, it's more like 5 and maybe 6, because of arb. There's no reason to hang on to him.

If the Sox could get someone to eat $10M of Dunn's 2014 deal then that deal is done, you ask for nothing back, and you get that thing through the commissioner's office as fast as humanly possible.