ChiSox59

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 12:42 PM) You have a very odd definition of certainty. The 2nd quote is in the portion you replied to. So you don't want to take the bet? I get you like to play devil's advocate, but you often come off as extremely negative towards Sox players. Yes, Jose has had a negative trend in his three years in the big leagues. I'd be willing to bet that his 2017 is closer to his 14/15 than his 16. Your comments would lead one to believe you think he'll continue his decline. Hence, I offered a wager. Happy to take you up on it if you reconsider and want to put a little doe behind your theories.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 10:36 AM) And from my GM chair, I look at a guy who put up a .964 OPS at age 27, a .850 OPS at 28, and a .820 OPS at 29, and say that at the current rate he'll be a .700 OPS hitter by age 33. Right now he's a league average 1b trending rapidly downwards. Every part of his game got weaker last year and every part of his game is trending downwards. You can say all you want about how he's younger, but his numbers make it look like he's aging worse than the much older guy. Turn that trend around and you become correct - his value can shoot back up because he is younger if he were to start performing again. That doesn't change what he has done the last 2 years. Again - you seem so certain Jose will not improve on his 2016 season. We'll use your preferred stat wRC+ - let's make a wager on next season. I say he improves - you say he doesn't.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 10:24 AM) wRC+ is 118 for Abreu, 113 for Napoli. Otherwise their numbers last year were comparable. Hell, their slugging %ages differ by 0.03. Mike Napoli will not get anywhere near the contract I just stated I think Abreu would get. Jose Abreu would not get anywhere near the contract Encarnacion got right now. You can't go and tell me that Jose is going to get better next year when in 3 years of baseball he's gotten worse every year. If I sign him, I'm understanding there's a substantial risk that he's a sub-.800 OPS guy next year based on his trendline. To change that story he needs to reverse that trendline. It's that simple. If he puts up a 2015-like season, then his value goes back into Encarnacion territory - Encarnacion was still a better hitter in 2016 than Abreu in 2015, but Abreu being younger would get a slight premium. If he puts up a 2016 like season, then he's a $10-$12 million a year player who you probably want to shift to DH. If he follows his own trendline then by 2018 he is a "Sunk cost". Wanna make a wager?

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 09:53 AM) Oh right, handedness not best for catchers, however the google search "narvaez switch hitting" led me to some site called futuresox: http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/omar-narvaez/ which says he abandoned switch hitting in 2014. Maybe I was thinking of another Sox player who had a cup of coffee last year, or maybe just recall it being mentioned on a telecast. Thanks for looking it up.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 09:59 AM) People are down on Jose because Jose Abreu was a strong disappointment last year following a slight disappointment in 2015. He had a strong second half yes but a first half where he was barely a big league player. If that was just weird statistics, then Jose Abreu is a 1b at age 30 who seems to be declining rapidly and was basically an average 1b across the entire league. If that was Abreu having physical issues in the first half of last year, then he seems to be a guy whose body is behaving like it is older than you'd expect at age 30, where physical issues are costing him production for 1/2 a season. Encarnacion's 2016 season was better than Abreu's 2015 season. If he carries forward how he hit in the 2nd half, yes that will boost his value significantly, but as of right now he's a 30 year old who has gotten worse every year and who performed a hair above Mike Napoli last year. If he were a FA today I believe he'd get more than 1 year if there was no QO attached, but I think he's looking at something in the 3/$35-$40 range based on his performance the last 2 seasons. Conveniently, that's about what he'll get paid if he's tendered a contract all 3 years. This is why he'll be on the roster next year for the White Sox - he's one of several guys who we are hoping will rebuild some value with better seasons next year. According to OPS+, he was a considerably better hitter than Napoli in 2016. Not to mention, Jose still has incredible upside in his bat, whereas a guy like Napoli may give you another season like 2016 if you're lucky, but more than likely will regress back to a .750 OPS type player because he is 5 whole years older than Jose, and his only year that has approached Abreu's average season over the past three was way back in 2011. Jose Abreu >>>>> Mike Napoli, and I like Mike Napoli.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 09:43 AM) Especially given his age I don't understand why people are here are so down on Jose. The current market is not ripe for trading him, I will agree with that. But the guy is 30, has raked in his three seasons in the big leagues, has a year to year contract with no buy-out, and is set to make a measly $10.825M next year. There is a ton of value in that. Due to the current FA market being saturated with RH hitting sluggers, his trade value today isn't enormous, but if he hits anything like he did in the 2nd half last year in the 1st half of 2017, his value will be enormous. If he were a FA today, I think we would get a pretty nice deal (assuming no QO attached). Let's say 4 years and $70M. Look, the Sox aren't going to give Jose away. He is going to be on the roster next year, and he should be.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 09:37 AM) He throws righty, so I'd guess yes. I knew nothing about Narvaez before he was brought up though. Lol, all catchers throw righty....

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 07:26 AM) Discussing Abreu's trade market is kinda pointless...because there isn't 1. I don't see any team giving up anything of real value for any 1B/DH type of player in a trade with the FA market still the way it is. If he were on the market I think he would have gotten a deal by now though. No where near Encarnacion, but I could see him getting 3 or 4 years at $13-16M per year. Disagree. I think he would be pretty close to EE.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 09:29 AM) So if hypothetically he's platooned with Narvaez, we actually have one left handed hitting catcher and one right handed hitting catcher on the roster this time, not two righties, right? Yep. Super small sample, but Narvaez actually hit much better against LHP last year. Wasn't he switch hitter, but decided to drop batting from the right side in the majors?

Meh, I am ok with this, I guess. I would have preferred some new blood - Hanigan, Iannetta or Salty, but ultimately there weren't any good options really. Soto is fine.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 5, 2017 -> 06:34 PM) If Jose Abreu had hit the free agent market this year he would not have signed yet. My guess is he'd get something comparable to the money he's likely to get in arbitration these 3 years as a contract - basically I think he'd get paid what he's going to be paid, except with a couple years guaranteed. I do not believe any team will give up any top 100 prospect for Jose Abreu. If he hits the daylights out of the ball in the first half and looks like 2014 Abreu he might become moveable again for a return that isn't "salary dump", but right now given the choice of signing Trumbo or Bautista or any of the other 1b/DH types, Abreu looks like he is at best fairly paid and not worth giving up any additional talent. As has already been said, I disagree with pretty much this entire post. Abreu would get paid if he were a FA. His surplus value isn't great, and the glut of 1B types on the FA market doesn't help his present value, but the Sox could definitely get some nice prospects for Jose. That said, I don't think they're looking to move him at all.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 5, 2017 -> 03:45 PM) I think it's relevant in this thread, but the Rays turned down a Martes, Tucker, Paulino ++ for Archer. That is crazy. Where was this reported?

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 5, 2017 -> 03:25 PM) I don't think they were aggressive with him at all. Agreed - I mean maybe a tad aggressive because they had a real need at SS last year and after their hot start needed him there. But the guy had nearly 1,500 PA in the minors. This wasn't a Gordon Beckham rush job.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 04:50 PM) I agree with this. Irrational fan opinion: Cashman wants to drop the Torres hammer and not have to give up much beyond it. He does not want to drop the Torres hammer and add considerably more after in competing with another team. Hahn is taking what amounts to less than a half season of Chapman for Jose Quintana. Obviously, that not how it works, but he'll want much more.

QUOTE (2005thxfrthmmrs @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 04:25 PM) So the OP did a benchmark of current MLB rankings against historic BA Top 100 rankings? It still doesn't make sense. Exactly. I mean, it doesn't mean much, but its at least a little interesting to look at. Hopefully more than half these guys hit, or this was a bad idea.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 04:08 PM) I don't think they've updated that since mid-season. I meant current in the sense that they are the "most" current.

QUOTE (2005thxfrthmmrs @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 03:56 PM) Not sure where you got your rankings from, but those ranks will change quite a bit when the official list drops next month. Current mlb.com rankings. I expect Kopech to rise a bit. Lopez to stay about the same. Moncada will still be top 3. Giolito will drop into teens, most likely. My guess is Collins is closer to 50 than 80.

Can someone post the link without the tweet? Here it is: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/212680084/an...-prospect-poll/

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 01:05 PM) Nah the Sale deal was a player light. They should've been able to add Devers or EdRo (at least) to the deal they got and probably would have if they were reasonable with Boston at the deadline and not asking for Mookie Betts. Sale's value peaked at the deadline last year and unless he starts doing Kershaw things he'll never fully regain it. Sox, to their credit, didn't waste any time waiting for his value to deteriorate more and dealt him this offseason for probably 80ish% of what they would've gotten at the deadline. I'm not thrilled about it, but I'm not upset either. At least they didn't stubbornly stand firm another year and taken themselves out of the running for a Moncada-like headliner. All reports were that the Sox couldn't get Moncada or Benintendi in July, so not sure how they beat that offer without one of the other B's. Devers, yah, maybe they could have gotten him then - but without Moncada, you need much more than him to make it up.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 12:51 PM) I'm just saying it may be disappointing to some if they really do intend to move him before spring training because there were a good amount of people on here that felt the Sale trade was a player off (myself included). Granted, it'll still be a great deal for us but not quite what we expect it to be. I am with ya there. I thought it was a player light as well, but see my previous post. Diminishing returns is a real thing.

QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 12:04 PM) Q's value will likely never be higher, but it is not likely to fade much either. Four full years on an under market contract is such crazy value that the market can't even really meet it. Plus, the other part is that other players' value is no sure thing to hold steady anyway, and pitchers like Glasnow could easily tumble. Any trade is a snapshot in time value wise. The big picture is my whole argument is predicated on the fact that the slam dunk elite offer is not being made anyway. If that kind of offer comes in, then you take it. If not, evaluate all scenarios. I think the bolded is the key. We saw this with Sale, and we may very well see it with Q if he's traded this offseason. Teams are only willing to give up so much. I think you can get the same for Q value-wise next offseason, or even in a year and half, as you can now. That doesn't mean you hold for the sake of holding, as there obviously is some risk there (but with Q its minimal), but you don't take a lesser package. You wait until your asking price (or at least what you realistically would take - see Sale trade), is met.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 10:10 AM) If this is true, we all may be slightly disappointed with the haul. If they're intent on finishing a deal before camp opens, they will end up settling for best offer. Meh. RH has said this is going to take time. He is not going to settle on his 2nd best trade chip that has four years of cheap control. He just won't. He'll get what he wants this offseason, or wait until he does.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 10:10 AM) If this is true, we all may be slightly disappointed with the haul. If they're intent on finishing a deal before camp opens, they will end up settling for best offer. Meh. RH has said this is going to take time. He is not going to settle on his 2nd best trade chip that has four years of cheap control. He just won't. He'll get what he wants this offseason, or wait until he does.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 3, 2017 -> 04:25 PM) And a worse defender and base runner. Melky will fetch a talented player or two, but they will almost certainly be highly flawed. We're on the same page.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 3, 2017 -> 03:55 PM) Most comparable player I can compare Melky to who has been moved recently is Melvin Upton. He netted a 20 year old with back of the rotation appeal, and that's after the Padres picked up all by $5 million of Upton's salary. If that's all they can get for him come the deadline, then that's all they can get and is something they will do. Meh. Melky's OPS+ was 120 last year. BJ's was 84. They are about the same age and make about the same money, though BJ had 1.5 years still left on his deal and is owed $1.5M more than Melky this year. Not terrible comp, but Melky is a better bat.