ChiSox59

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 11:45 AM) $8 million isn't a lot to this team. Plus, if he reaches the $8 million, he would probably be considered a steal knowing that he reached whatever the incentives are. I mean, I am not bad about it, just seems a bit high. I am guessing the guaranteed amount is closer to $4-$5M, which seems about right.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 11:43 AM) Evan Grant reports that Holland can earn up to $8MM if he maxes out his incentives. Hopefully the incentives are strict, as $8M seems a bit rich. Hope the guarantee is closer to half that.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 11:07 AM) Interested to see what they're paying him. Let's make some guesses. I will go 1 year / $3.75M, with a $5M club option ($250k buyout) for 2018. Evan Grant reports that Holland can earn up to $8MM if he maxes out his incentives.

Interested to see what they're paying him. Let's make some guesses. I will go 1 year / $3.75M, with a $5M club option ($250k buyout) for 2018.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 10:51 AM) Yeah I understand what you're saying, but a lot of people seem to just want them to trade to make a trade and take best offer (which they may end up having to do, but don't have to now). Exactly. That is the last thing the Sox need to be doing right now.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 10:48 AM) Obviously if the trade offers are not good we keep them and try to flip them at the deadline I think there will be enough demand for Quintana and Robertson to get moved this offseason though Frazier, Melky, Abreu, Jones, Gonzalez are more likely to start the season on the Sox roster We're on the same page. I just wouldn't be shocked to see Q stick around. Musgrove/Martes/Tucker doesn't really change that for me. I think you can get a comparable deal to that next December. Robertson...we shall see. I always tend to look at things on the positive side, but I just don't think the current team with Q on it is a bottom 1/4 of the league team. Especially with some patchwork signings I assume they'll make - like Alvarez and Rasmus.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 10:27 AM) Of course, as currently constructed we are not THAT bad But, we all know that guys like Quintana/Robertson/FRazier/etc are more likely than not going to be moved for prospects Totally agreed. But I don't think we can dismiss what the last 20 years have told us about this organization. Plus, if you can't get anything meaningful for Frazier, Melky, Lawrie - why move them? I'd rather see if the offers are better in June/July, than take some backend top 20 prospect from a farm that will likely never make the majors. What good does that do? Saves Jerry some $, that is about it.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 10:19 AM) The lineup won't be the reason we are awful, the starting rotation minus Quintana and bullpen minus Robertson is why we will be awful For the third time, in my scenario, I said Quintana and Robertson DON'T get moved. That is what "as currently constructed" means. Last I checked, those dudes are still cashing checks from the Chicago White Sox.

I never root for my teams to lose.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 10:12 AM) We had the 5th worst record in the American League in 2016 If we trade Quintana + others we can pencil ourselves in for 60-65 wins at best and we would be one of the worst teams in baseball A rotation of Rodon/Gonzalez/Shields/Holland/Covey/Beck/Crappy FA signing = 60 wins My comment was "as currently constructed", meaning no further meaningful subtractions (Q, Frazier, Melky, Abreu, Robertson, etc.).

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 10:00 AM) How are we built to play .500 baseball? We will be lucky to win 65 or 70 games in 2017 To be fair, I said COULD play .500 ball. Sox won 78 games last year and pretty much everyone besides Sale, Eaton, Q and Melky underperformed. A lineup of: Anderson - SS Melky - LF Abreu - 1B Frazier - 3B Alvarez / Morneau - DH Lawrie - 2B Rasmus - CF Liriano / Avi - RF Narvaez / Some FA - C I think Alvarez / Morneau could be had pretty cheap. Could probably get Rasmus on a one year deal around $8-$10M. That lineup isn't great, but its also not awful. You have Moncada who could come up a take Lawrie's spot when he gets hurt. Look, I don't think that team will compete, but its also not completely crazy to think that team could be within 5 games of .500 by mid June. Have Giolito, Lopez and Fulmer in AAA waiting for a shot in the rotation. I fully expect (and hope) to the Sox to make further moves to make this all moot, but right now, the core of .500ish team is still there. Let's not forget that the Sox have tried to win for pretty much 2 decades straight. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a lineup like this on opening day. You can still trade guys like Frazier, Melky, Lawrie, Robertson mid-season, and guys like Q and Abreu next offseason. If you're not getting something useful for the impending FAs now, may as well hold and see what happens.

I like it. I have always been a fan of Holland. He was fun to watch pitch a few years back. Don't love that he is such a flyball pitcher, but its a solid move for the backend of the rotation. I hate to say it because I know I will get crucified - but the Sox are currently constructed could still play .500 ball. Could is the key word. I expect further moves, but right now the lineup and rotation isn't awful. Add a decent DH like Alvarez or Morneau and the team could be interesting without further subtractions.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 09:38 AM) How so? Answered my own question: Sox to Sign Holland

QUOTE (flavum @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 09:37 AM) Looks like a done deal. Build up the value and trade him. Best case scenario. How so?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 09:33 AM) If Gammons quote is accurate and the Sox were willing to trade for a Tucker/Martes/Musgrove package, you have to think eventually something will get done with Houston. They are 100% analytics, so Q, who probably is the Ben Zobrist of pitching sabermetrically, is one of the best pitchers in baseball to them, signed cheaply for 4 years with a couple of outs in case something horrible happens. I think there will be a 4 or 5 prospect trade for him myself. All of the other dancing IMO is just for show. I'd be a little surprised if the Sox traded Quintana for a three player package including 2 pitchers at this point.

QUOTE (flavum @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 05:28 PM) That's what I think too. For him, lower the expectations, but just make a deal. Why? There is literally no good reason to just trade him. Get a good return that you like, or hold onto him and see if he regained some value in the first few months of the season.

Hope he makes it. Johnny is a good dude.

QUOTE (illinilaw08 @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 12:04 PM) The thing to remember here is that the Nationals package and the Red Sox package both sent back premium prospects, but neither sent back players that the Nats or Red Sox were counting on this year. The Rockies and Astros aren't going to offer guys they are counting on this year either. To say the Nats weren't counting on any meaningful innings from Giolito or Lopez is silly. To say the Red Sox, who have a gaping hole at 3B, weren't at least considering Moncada, the #1 prospect in the game, to at some point fill the hole is silly. I generally agree with what you're saying. But the Rockies rotation is gawd awful. They have a surplus of OF. I assume their preference is to trade Blackmon, get a few prospects to either replenish their farm or supplement a trade package for a TOR starter. That's plan A. But I don't think its crazy to think that plan B would be to keep Blackmon in CF, put Desmond in LF and trade Dahl for an ace. I don't think that scenario is likely, but I can also nearly guarantee you that Hahn's ask includes Dahl right now.

QUOTE (illinilaw08 @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 11:21 AM) That's seriously overvaluing Abreu. If the Sox couldn't get Dahl + Rodgers for Q, then you are assuming that they would get Dahl for Abreu which flat out isn't happening. The one thing we should be learning this offseason is that teams aren't going to move guys they are counting on this year for the Sox assets. Dahl is going to be playing everyday for the Rockies this year. I'll be stunned if the Rockies move him. Well, they need to move an outfielder somehow. Blackmon is probably more likely to be moved in another deal, but I think Dahl will definitely be a discussion point regarding Q. I am also not convinced the Rox wouldn't do Rodgers + Dahl for Q. Comparable package to what the Nats gave up for Eaton in terms of prospect ratings.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 11:09 AM) Not even that ChiSox. If Quintana AND Abreu are going, i'm requesting Dahl, Rodgers, Hoffman +2 lottery tickets Yah, was trying to be realistic, but no way I am trading Q and Abreu for 2 prospects. That is silly IMO. But again, I don't see Hahn changing his tune on packaging his players.

QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 11:16 AM) Yeah, if Abreu's in the deal too, it has to be Dahl, Rodgers, Hoffman, plus. But I'd see if the Rockies are really all in on 2017 and try for Quintana and Robertson for a package built around Dahl and Rodgers with some lower level prospects. Q and Robertson for Dahl, Rodgers ++ is closer. But I would want those ++ to be something other than throw ins. Murphy would be nice as one of them. I don't see Hahn packaging any of his players unless it really gets him what he wants. He has already shown that with Robertson.

QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Dec 13, 2016 -> 10:25 AM) With Bregman pretty much off the table, this is my top pipe dream target too. The Rockies make some odd choices (Ian Desmond...?), so who knows, maybe they'd pull a Dave Stewart and trade both Dahl and Rodgers for Quintana plus one more piece (Abreu/Robertson/Frazier/Jones). Quintana AND Abreu for Dahl and Rodgers? No thanks. I'd need at 2 out of three of Tapia, McMahon and Murphy in addition to those 2.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 12, 2016 -> 05:22 PM) Man, Levine. Try harder. If the nationals would give up Robles for Robertson, those two would have been included in the Eaton trade. I think I would die of laughter if Hahn somehow pulled that off though!

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 12, 2016 -> 03:07 PM) I agree, but I think Rockies are going to be very hesitant to give up any of their young power pitchers. Position players more likely. Fine w/ me.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 12, 2016 -> 02:11 PM) Trying to temper expectation on Robertson trade so I'm pleasantly surprised. Severino sounds like one of those guys that Soxtalk gets obsessed with though and doesn't work out, but then 5 years later that guy is playing in Korea (unless we get him, then he'll be great). I think someone who is widely considering the best defensive catcher in the minors sounds like a wonderful thing for a young pitching staff. Even if he can hardly hit his weight.