TheFutureIsNear

My point was that 5 FIP is not the norm at all like you tried to say. Pitchers get replaced when they pitch that poorly, as the evidence shows so few guys pitching significant innings with a 5 FIP. Reynaldo only accumulated that fWAR because the white Sox couldn’t field 5 competent SP’s and he had to stay in the rotation. This discussion really isn’t even about Lopez, I think he should be in the rotation for at least a few months next year...it’s more about the idea of using 1 stat like fWAR and thinking it tells the whole story. Which is nonsense. There’s always a much bigger picture. In this case it’s the fact that fWAR is a flawed stat that gives too much value for simply taking the mound every 5 days. And while I agree staying healthy is important for a SP, it doesn’t change the fact that Lopez wasn’t affective last year. If Lopez is on probably 25 (pure guess) other teams last year he never approaches 2 fwar because he would have been in AAA.

Reynaldo was 1 of 3 SP’s that threw 160 IP with FIP over 5. Leake and Porecello were the other 2.

Ok sure...but my point still stands of how many pitchers are allowed to throw 180+ innings of 5+era ball? Not many, most lose their job. If this were counting stats you’d guys would be on the complete opposite side of the argument. But a player simply staying healthy and accumulating fwar is different? You’ll have to explain that to me.

I never said he doesn’t have value. I fully understand durability is an asset. My argument was against Lopez being a top 15 SP in the AL, which in my opinion is flat out wrong.

4.6 to 5.03 is insignificant? And sure it’s valuable...if you’re effective. Lopez would have been replaced by most teams in the league, he just happened to be playing for a team that was in full rebuild mode. Having a pulse shouldn’t be celebrated in my opinion, but we can agree to disagree. I just prefer more context than “well fangraphs said so”, there should be a bigger picture with more than just 1 cherry picked stat that fits your agenda

This is my problem with advanced stats, especially when people quote 1 stat like it’s the Bible without any real context. 1. Lopez’s fwar was the exact same in 2018 and 2019. How could that be possible?? 2. According to fwar Lopez was more valuable than Abreu. And trust me I’m not a big Abreu fan and don’t care about his rbi title...but that’s still just dumb. fWar seems to give pitchers extra value just for having a pulse and not getting injured/being on a team that is too bad to replace him.

Sure, but the tweet I quoted made it seem as if the Sox would sign 2 legit starters. Seems like a waste of resources to me. Sign 1 (wheeler) and then get a cheap guy that can make 10 or so starts and then shift to the pen.

If Kopech needs more than 4-5 starts in the minors something probably went wrong. He’s already 12+ months removed from the surgery. Unless there’s something we don’t know I see no reason to baby Kopech along. Let him knock off some rust with a few short starts in AAA and let him loose.

In my opinion if Wheeler and Grandal are signed the window opens in 2021...22/23 is where we will start getting into extensions for our younger guys not named Eloy or TA

Wonder if front loading a contract for Wheeler makes sense and would appeal to him? Something like 4/85 with $50M guaranteed in the 1st 2 years. With our payroll situation I’d much rather overpay for Wheeler in the short term than be on the hook for 2 years at the end of the deal he may/probably won’t be worth

Why on earth would you want to DH McCann?? Collins is obviously an unknown, but McCann is known...as a bad hitter. McCann has plenty of value to the Sox as a backup catcher, no need to overthink it as anything more

wait, do you really think Grandal and Wheeler make the Sox World Series contenders?

Good signing...but now the FO is committed, can’t stop here or it’s a waste of $. Go get 1 of Cole, Stras, Ryu, Wheeler or Bum sooner rather than later.

Trade: Carson Fulmer for Travis Shaw. LH hitter that can play 3B, 2B, and 1B with some pop. Has had prior success but struggled in 2019. Brewers seem to be done with him so a flyer on Fulmer could be a fair swap. Sign: Zack Wheeler- Everyone’s obvious top signing that is realistic for the Sox. 5/105 Nick Castellanos- I know a lot of people have issues with his D in RF, but he’s still young and made drastic improvements from year 1 to year 2 at a new position. If he can simply be league average defensively his bat will play more than enough to justify the contract. 4/66 Brad Bach and Arodys Vizcaino- 2 bounce back relief candidates to take a chance on to stabilize the pen. 1/5 for both. Josh Lindblom- Potential great value to eat innings as a 5th starter or could be a useful pen arm. The model for success for coming back from overseas is there. 2/7.5 C- McCann 1B- Abreu 2B- Madrigal 3B- Moncada SS- TA LF- Eloy CF- Robert RF- Castellanos DH- Collins Bench- Shaw, Luery, Mendick, ?(maybe another C or a better RH DH platoon) Gio Wheeler Cease Lopez Lindblom/Kopech Frye Bach Marshall Cordero Vizciano Bummer Colome About $128M for payroll

Hopefully this is out with the old and in with the new...this organization needs to get less “old school” and more into the modern era. Have a feeling there probably isn’t much modern about Omar.

I guess the part I’m lost at is why can’t Grandal and Collins both be in the lineup? If you’re spending $15+M on Grandal to fill the catcher spot we still have big holes at RF and DH. Even the “cheap” stop gap options are going to cost around $10M...and in my opinion we aren’t winning the WS (or anything close) in 2020 so I’d much rather see Collins get AB’s than sign someone like Encarnacion to play 1 year and never be seen again. If we can get something like a .770 OPS (.350/.420) out of Collins in his 1st full year at his dirt cheap rookie salary I’d consider it a win and be happy. The bench bat that can DH against LH to complete the platoon shouldn’t be hard to find at all.

I don’t see how 1 could have this opinion and then also pencil in Cease to start the year in the rotation. I don’t know your personal stance on Cease, just a general statement. Makes no sense that we gave so much leeway to Gio, Yoan, and now Cease, but Collins gets less than a 1/4 season? I’d say let’s see what we have over a solid 300 AB’s before any decisions are made either way

I guess it depends how much you care, but LH vs RH would be a fairly big deal in our lineup.

I don’t get why “only a LH power hitting high OBP guy” isn’t valuable to you. We play in the AL with a DH and the vast majority of pitchers are right handlers. He can get 450-500 AB’s no problem and a bench guy that hits just lefties well isn’t hard to find

I think anything less than .230/.350/.420 and be won’t last very long in the lineup...unless he proves to be viable catcher defensively. But if he’s primarily a DH and occasional C/1B he’s going to have to slug a good bit over .400. And as long as he’s not completely overmatched his OBP floor is probably .350 at worst honestly, I think patience and a lot of walks is just in his dna as a hitter.

DH him against righties and see what he is. Give him at least 300 PA’s to start the year before any decisions are made. If he can get 500 PA’s and maintain a .360+ OBP and hit 20 hrs he will be valuable to the Sox. Fill SP and RF with multi year pieces to build on and fill DH with Collins and a cheap RH platoon.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VXqTgcx6Th1fJ8HmqYfeXZXX6HLIDAlOInFyW0Sflz8/edit?usp=sharing + Josh Lindblom for 2/7M (not an option on the spreadsheet) bringing the payroll to 114 This is my "sign Wheeler, but then go full White Sox everywhere else". C- McCann/d'Arnaud- 60/40 split 1B- Abreu 2B- Madrigal SS- TA 3B- Moncada LF- Eloy CF- Robert RF- Markakis/Luery LH/RH split DH- Collins vs RH and Dozier or d'Arnaud vs LH Mendick on the bench Gio Wheeler Cease Lopez Lindblom Kopech Burr/Hamilton/Ruiz Frye Marshall Cordero Rondon Bummer Colome

Greinke‘s contract with the Astros is 2/53M right now...why would that be a negative value? No way Greinke is getting traded for nothing.

For the record Calhoun was credited for 0 DRS last year...Castellanos was -9. Is that negligible? No. But does it make up for the potential 30 point difference in WRC+ between the 2? I don’t think so. Obviously you can’t just ignore the $ difference between the 2 either, but there’s also the point of not having a stop gap and doing this whole process over again next year.

Is he really THAT bad? Can he not improve as a 28 year old new to the OF? It’s not like he’s a horrible athlete that can’t move. He improved drastically from year 1 to year 2 in RF. I see no reason he can’t improve again to be league average. We play in the AL, a small hitters park, and in era that is becoming an increasingly 3 out come game. If scouts feel like Castellanos can become a league average defender he’d be a very good fit imo.