OmarComing25

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 10:46 AM) Neither are we, though. Having another team in the division that's equally as good is a substantial obstacle. No disagreement there

I really think people are overrating the Tigers. Even with Upton I don't see them as much more than an 81-84 win team right now.

I'm really hesitant to rank our rotation until I see Erik Johnson pitch for a couple months first.

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 08:18 AM) Where was I "completely wrong?" I asked what is the cost to the A's for Gray "this year". I'm not disagreeing with anything you posted (agree 100% about the value gap shrinking over time), but: 1. Not a point anyone was making 2. If he continues to perform at current levels he's still more "bang for buck" value, particularly since he has virtually no impact on a team's payroll. I think it's because we disagree on how to determine value. Let's say both pitchers live up to their projections by Steamer next year. Gray at 3.5 WAR certainly beats out Sale at 6 WAR if you look at value as salary/WAR. But by that same logic Erik Johnson at 0.5 WAR would be more valuable than Sale, which is just silly. If instead you look at the surplus value each pitcher provides beyond their contract, then it's easy to see why Sale would be more valuable (6 WAR would be $42-48 million in value, vs. ~$25 million for 3.5 WAR, going by the idea that 1 WAR = $7-8 million).

I'd put the Indians rotation #2 behind the Mets. Carrasco and Salazar are as underrated as Quintana is.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jan 25, 2016 -> 09:31 PM) When you have to use 1/2 season stats to justify major investments, it kind of makes my point. Not to mention Desmond's defense is less than exemplary. I wouldn't have gotten either one of them. And a bad 2nd half wasn't the only reason I didn't want Frazier (bad splits; Sox terrible historical track record with NL sluggers; we had 3B hole filled adequately; Frazier cost 3 good ML ready prospects). Not getting one of the big 3 OF is a big miss. If we take Hahn at his word that he wants to build this org. so it consistently wins, you have to use the FA market, esp. one who wouldn't cost a draft pick. And when KW puts forth this artificial 3 year window, which is now year 2, when OF was as big a problem as 3B (bigger defensively last year), and yet they let these players pass, it speaks loudly of lack of coherent front office strategy. I'm not just using half a season to justify Desmond. Here are his last 8 half seasons: 2015 2nd half: 1.9 WAR 2015 1st half: -0.1 WAR 2014 2nd half: 1.9 WAR 2014 1st half: 2.0 WAR 2013 2nd half: 1.6 WAR 2013 1st half: 3.1 WAR 2012 2nd half: 1.9 WAR 2012 1st half: 2.8 WAR Seems to me there's one clear outlier, and it's not the half season I wrote about in my last post.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 25, 2016 -> 05:44 PM) I'm getting this same feeling and it's making me sick to my stomach. If he starts 2016 as our RF, then I want Rick Hahn to be accountable if/when he fails. You don't tell your fanbase you're serious about competing and then trot out one of the worst players in baseball last year at a position where numerous upgrades were available. Until Avi learns how to field & run, the chances of him becoming a productive OF are slim to none. And quite frankly, it's nearly impossible to coach up a lack of instincts & stupidity. Agreed, with the bountiful OF market going into this offseason, I had zero doubt in my mind that Hahn would find someone to replace Avi, but now as each day goes by the fear of Avi as our 2016 starting RF is looking more and more likely. And if that happens I can't see that as anything other than a colossal mistake by Hahn.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 25, 2016 -> 04:44 PM) In the 2nd half last season, his average was 262 and had an OPS over 770. Yeah for a poster who likes to harp on Frazier's 2nd half stats, Desmond had a higher WAR after the All-Star Break than the likes of Anthony Rizzo, JD Martinez, and Justin Upton, and was equal to Nolan Arenado.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 24, 2016 -> 10:21 PM) Heyward - like 25.5 (if you consider the 3 years and all signing bonus money even if its deferred) Cespedes - 25 Gordon - 18 Upton - 22 Basically a shade under what everyone is expecting with big shocker being years. I have no sympathy for the comments like "so you want them to pay X $25 million per YEAR?!?!". No, I didn't , but when they rely on Free Agency to acquire talent and claim to want to compete right way, that they actually engage that market with realistic expectations of cost. None of these guys are "overpaid", they are paid what top level free agent outfielders will continue to get. I would agree with you if Gordon had signed with the Angels and Cespedes had signed with the Orioles. But 2 of the Big 3 stayed with their original teams, and the third reportedly had no interest in coming here. It wasn't a case of being unwilling to pay what they ultimately got paid, because we would have had to significantly outbid the other offers to have a chance. According to reports both Gordon and Cespedes had higher offers on the table, who says the Sox didn't bid more on both of them? If that was the case it seems like the Sox were well aware of the cost needed to acquire them, but it wasn't going to be enough to get them.

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Jan 24, 2016 -> 07:37 PM) Would I pay him $30M a year? No, but only because I didn't win that PowerBall from a couple of weeks ago; otherwise, I might have been tempted!! Would I be ok with Jerry Reinsdorf digging into his coffeiurs and outbidding the Mets of all teams, who are in far greater financial dire straits than the Sox, for the services of Cespedes? Oh, you betcha! You betcha. We currently have a modest payroll at best, so bringing in Cespedes would not have broken the bank. Meanwhile, Cespedes would have put us in a far greater position to compete next year and return to the postseason. Instead, we still have the two sub-par players manning the OF corners, and now the discussions are focusing on bringing in guys like Fowler and Jackson, who aren't much better than the incumbents themselves. Big time, missed opportunity this week by the geniuses in the front office, the same guys who brought us Cabrera and Avi to begin with. So you're mad at ownership for not paying Cespedes more money than every other position player in the league?

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Jan 24, 2016 -> 07:11 PM) It was absolutely a no-brainer to have brought Cespedes in, for exactly the reasons you stated. And yet we were outbid by the Madoff-challenged Mets to do so. This was a colossal failure for this front office, to be sure. And now we find ourselves in discussions about the free agent market leftovers, guys like Fowler, who is a table scrap from the Cubs made expendable by them because they DID acquire a premium available outfielder this offseason. Fowler, this year's Melky Cabrera: decent hitter, sub par defender. That sound like Cespedes to you? So would you have paid Cespedes $30 million this year? Because that's the minimum it would have taken to pry him away from the Mets. And I'm still not sure that would have been enough.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 24, 2016 -> 07:03 PM) Well yeah but he turns 33 this April. When 100% and in his athletic prime Pujols is #1 out of active players but time is undefeated. I understand that, but that's why I'm fine with his ranking. The nagging injuries knocks him down a couple spots. I don't think the Pujols comparison is fair because right now if they're both healthy Miggy is way better.

QUOTE (iWin4Ron @ Jan 24, 2016 -> 04:36 PM) How do people justify Sale over Greinke and Arrieta ? As stated previously, this is not about who would you pick to start your franchise or who to start your team with. This is about reality right now. Greinke and Arrieta should rightfully be a head of Sale in this ranking. Probably Price too. It's pretty easy if you can look past just one year of data and look at other stats besides just ERA. There's a reason Kershaw is the only SP who is projected to be better than Sale next year. In his career Grienke's ERA is roughly equal to his FIP, and his FIP last year was over a run higher than his ERA. His BABIP was 70 points lower than his career average, his LOB% was an absurdly high 86.5% and almost 12% better than his career average, and there was nothing in his batted ball profile to suggest he was giving up significantly softer contact than usual. Add in his age and it's easy to see why Sale should be above him. Arrieta is a bit of a different case. His BABIP and LOB% are also very likely to regress, but they weren't as extreme as Greinke's, and Arrieta does seem to have the ability to induce rather weak contact. The new Arrieta doesn't have as much of a track record, so he's a bit harder to predict going forward, but Sale certainly has a case there too, depending on your view of advanced metrics. xFIP and SIERA are both much better predictors of future performance than ERA is, and Sale finished 2nd to Kershaw in the MLB in both those metrics in 2015 (Arrieta finished 3rd and 5th). To me it feels like a 50/50 shot as to who will have a better year next season.

QUOTE (iWin4Ron @ Jan 24, 2016 -> 04:37 PM) I think Abreu should be one or two spots higher. I have my doubts about Miggy now. Nah, when healthy Miggy is #1.

Sale is better than Price and Greinke.

QUOTE (captain54 @ Jan 23, 2016 -> 01:06 PM) the fact that you actually calculated all of my total posts and then counted my posts on this thread and figured the percentage. is a little alarming… I'm sorry my recent posting trend doesn't meet your approval… Kindly off some tips on how I should post to insure I don't piss you off in the future.. That information takes less than 10 seconds to look up, that's alarming? Could you be any more of a drama queen? What's alarming is that this thread has reached 10 pages.

QUOTE (Big Hurtin @ Jan 23, 2016 -> 12:01 PM) I think I'm beginning to understand why Charlie Brown kept trying to kick that football all those years. I can't remember the last time one of your posts added to the discussion.

QUOTE (2005thxfrthmmrs @ Jan 23, 2016 -> 11:01 AM) I think there is definitely a notion that players don't want to play for the Sox, middle of the road team, lacking prestige as a franchise, bottom of the barrel in attendance, etc. But part of the blame is also the bombing of other FA signings, especially hitters in recent year. Had those guys, Dunn, LaRoche, and to some extent Melky, had performed better with the Sox than they did before, it would have been a more appealing case to attract other FA's. Again, just 1 year ago two guys signed here with higher offers elsewhere. I think the whole "players don't want to come here" is overblown.

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 23, 2016 -> 02:17 AM) What are the A's gonna pay Gray this year? What are the Sox gonna pay Sale? I said VALUE...not better, necessarily. The ole "bang for the buck". Sale '16 - $9.1M Gray - '16 - (Arb process - $512,000 base) Gray is SO MUCH MORE VALUABLE it's not even funny. Yeah that's not true. If they both put up their projections next year, Sale at $9.1M and 6+ WAR is still providing more surplus value than Gray at $512,000 and 3.5-4 WAR.

Can we stop acting like because we missed out on the Big 3 that all of Hahn's plans fail to come to fruition? He targeted Lawrie and Frazier and got those done. What was he supposed to do here? There was no way we were going to pry away Gordon or Cespedes unless we grossly overpaid, and Upton didn't want to come here.

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 23, 2016 -> 01:28 AM) The Cubs are overrating Soler so much, it's funny. They should include Schwarber (DH) call Billy, and polielty ask him what else do they want for Sonny. Give 'em Baez too. Move like THAT...would make me take them seriously. Gray is like Sale but even cheaper. He is the most VALUABLE pitcher in baseball. Let's not get crazy here. Gray's good, but let's see him put up one 4 WAR season first before saying he's "like Sale". The guy's peripherals are solid but far from spectacular. Sale is still easily the more valuable pitcher.

Even in a down year Desmond was more than 2 wins better than Alexei last year.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 11:02 PM) -"Good defensive shortstop" is a bit of a stretch -Will hit 20+ HR? That's a huge assumption. He hit 19 last year and may struggle converting to the AL. Nothing is guaranteed. -He can be willing to play other positions all he wants, but his defense there will likely not be very good -Agree with your last sentence It's not a huge assumption that he'll hit 20 HR, he just had 19 in a clear down year.

QUOTE (South Sider @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 10:48 PM) I was unaware they actually had better offers. I must have missed that. I believe the Royals offered Melky a 4th year and the Astros offered Robertson more money.

QUOTE (South Sider @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 10:42 PM) It feels so crappy that no player would want to come here, though. It speaks volumes as to how this organization is viewed by players. IN the case of Upton, it seems like he pretty much told the Sox he wasn't interested. If players are doing that, things need to change. That is unacceptable. Robertson and Melky turned down better offers to come here just one year ago.