OmarComing25

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 10:24 AM) I'm getting anxious. I'm afraid we are not going to get anyone. I can't deal with another Avi season. A month ago I was 100% confident Avi wasn't going to be the starting RF in 2016, but that confidence is eroding more and more every day. And that's with one of most favorable OF markets you're ever going to see.

I can't be the only one not worried about Sale vs. the Twins this year, right? Look up his 2013 stats against the Indians, they're actually worse than his numbers against Minnesota last year. Now look up Sale's ERA against the Indians from 2014-2015, it's pretty good.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 07:29 AM) They would almost definitely be trading Hammel to free up money So that means the Cubs would have to make two trades to fit him in. Seems unlikely, especially if someone moves on him soon.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 05:25 PM) http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=ss For comparison sake, Cubs prospect Gleyber Torres is at 9. This one really surprises me. There's a lot of great SS prospects right now. MLB.com has Anderson as the #38 prospect overall but as the 13th best SS prospect.

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 02:52 PM) If you have a bad year, you're going to be projected to have another bad one.. Not if you're Jeff Samardzija. Steamer: 3.45 ERA ZiPS: 3.31 ERA

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 02:15 PM) Now you're just being argumentative for the sake of being argumentative...or disingenuous. There's a big difference between 27 errors (Desmond) and 10 (Cain/Kinsler). That 30% is roughly equivalent to the TOTALS of the guys you try to use as examples. Also, Donaldson's "league leading"18 errors are evenly matched with Lawrie, and just a single error away from guys like Arrenado, Beltre, and Bryant. Yes - context. You can't compare CF and SS by total number of errors, because shortstops in general are always going to have a lot more errors. The point was that Cain had the most errors at his position, but no one is going to say he's a bad or even average defender. Also doesn't your 3B example just help prove my point? Donaldson, Arenado and Beltre all have glowing defensive reputations, yet they were among the league leaders in errors.

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 01:55 PM) Yeah, per ZiPS, he's gonna be the 2016 Sox #3 slugger! But this is 438 trips to the plate...that's a pretty big flocking quirk. The projections just spit out numbers for any player who has an even remote chance to see playing time. Viciedo was probably just a mistake, but ZiPS has 476 projected PA for Gerson Montilla and 425 PA for Eudy Pina. I doubt those guys play for the 2016 White Sox either.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 01:37 PM) Well, that's a better ERA than Sale put up last year and a higher OPS than Abreu put up last year. That's a little low for Eaton compared to last year but I get why a projection system would be skeptical that he can put up 2015 type HR numbers again in 2016 when he hadn't hit more than 7 in a season since he got to AA then suddenly he hit 14 last year. The youngsters...always hard to project, could be better or worse in both cases and I wouldn't be surprised. And let's not forget the world just hates Jose Quintana. Yeah I don't see anything that wrong with Eaton or Abreu's projections, especially knowing that projections are conservative by nature. However, I'd be a little more optimistic on Abreu just going by his splits. In 2014 he had a 155 wRC+ against RHP and 203 wRC+ against LHP. In 2015 he had a 144 wRC+ against RHP and 78 wRC+ against LHP. I doubt we'll see 203 wRC+ against LHP again, but that 78 seems really fluky too. I would expect a lot of improvement there, and if he stays the course against RHP, he should be better than last year.

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 01:33 PM) Errors alone are not enough...at least without context. In Desmond's case, he committed the most in his league last year, and the next closest guy committed nearly 30% less. I think its pretty safe to say you're not very good defensively in that context, without the need for an in-depth advanced defensive stat analysis. Lorenzo Cain led all CF in errors last year, and his total was 30% higher than the next guy too. Ian Kinsler is among the leaders in errors at 2B every year. Josh Donaldson has the most errors of any 3B over the last 3 years. Errors need context.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 12:35 PM) The White Sox defense sucked last year. The OF hasn't changed as of today. QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 12:59 PM) The big uptick in ERA is odd. He's never been higher than a 3.51 in a 200IP season. The lower FIP isn't as surprising to me, as SS noted, due to the same OF defense. He's posted a FIP .5 lower than his ERA before (2014). I understand the point about the defense, but last year Quintana only had a 0.18 difference from FIP to ERA. Compare that to Danks (0.22), Sale (0.68) and Samardzija (0.73). Rodon actually is projected to have a lower ERA (3.81) than FIP (3.88). It just doesn't make sense why Quintana is projected to have the biggest FIP-ERA gap by far among all our SP (0.44), when the other starters sans Rodon all have gaps projected in the 0.20-0.25 range.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 01:10 PM) The hitters actually look pretty realistic to me except maybe being a best case scenario for LaRoche (honestly). Assuming LaRoche doesn't see much time against LHP this year, I don't see that batting line as best case scenario.

QUOTE (CB2.0 @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 11:31 AM) I wouldn't go so far as to call it lazy analysis. And I'm a guy that likes advanced statistics, but the defensive ones still leave a ton to be desired. In order for an error to be recorded, that means that a fielder: This is the problem I have with the "Well, he just has great range, and is getting to balls that most ordinary fielders wouldn't". If that were true, he wouldn't be charged with an error. He's clearly doing things.....LOTS OF THINGS...that cost BASES. At least 11 more bases than a bad Alexei year, and most likely a lot more than just 11. That's just not true. There are dozens of examples every year of plays being mistakenly marked as errors or non-errors, it's a subjective judgment call, and if a player gets to a ball that leads to an error he's not giving up extra bases if the other player doesn't even get to the ball. You're also completely ignoring throwing errors, which can easily happen on balls the defender with poorer range doesn't get to.

I didn't say to ignore errors, but saying things like "he makes a lot of errors so he's not a good defender" is short-sighted.

QUOTE (bear_brian @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 09:52 AM) Anyway you cut it, this guy made 27 errors last year and 24 the year before that. Alexei made 16 last year, just for comparison. He is not a reliable defender, and therefore not what we need to resolve our problem. We've long moved past just looking at # of errors to determine good defense. That's just lazy analysis.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 11:14 AM) Those ERA projections for Quintana and Rodon are laughable. Quintana's is strange not only because of the ERA, but also his projected FIP (3.29). Not sure why the projection has such a big gap between the two numbers, especially considering Quintana's career ERA (3.46) is almost identical to his career FIP (3.45).

Projected numbers: Sale: 2.99 ERA Quintana: 3.73 ERA Rodon: 3.81 ERA Johnson: 4.70 ERA Danks: 4.88 ERA Beck: 5.38 ERA Carroll: 5.35 ERA Turner: 5.98 ERA Frazier: .255/.318/.449 Eaton: .277/.352/.400 Abreu: .285/.352/.505 Lawrie: .255/.310/.406 Saladino: .232/.290/.347 Navarro: .259/.314/.385 Avila: .203/.321/.336 Melky: .281/.325/.403 LaRoche: .226/.317/.401 Garcia: .265/.311/.394 Anderson: .257/.283/.369

From yesterday's Fangraphs After Dark Chat:

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 02:34 PM) I prefer to think positive. Avi has had one full season under hs belt. He is a talented young player. I said himself towards the end of the season he knew he had to work on hs hitting. I stress that point because too many young players don't pay attention to their hitting coach and can't self assess their weaknesses as ballplayers. We could be in for a pleasant surprise in 2016 with Avi Garcia Depends on what your definition of pleasant surprise is. If he produces a non-negative WAR in 2016 that will be a pleasant surprise for me.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 01:52 PM) Still think it's closer to $25 million...we'll see. I don't think you'd want players who are resenting the feeling they are underpaid...but maybe that's the sting of motivation both guys would need. We know that Fowler is still likely to be overpaid despite the QO attached. As far as Desmond vs. Anderson, one of them could see more time at DH or in the outfield...but you have this entire season to assess. Basically, getting some positional flexibility and speed/athleticism at two additional spots, compared to Avi's physical potential which is largely untapped or underutilized. What's best case scenario for the AAV for Jackson and Desmond? Jackson at $8 million AAV and Desmond at $14-15 million AAV?

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:38 PM) [/b] He averages about 2 WAR per year. I'd say that's a little better than average. He's just about to turn 30, too. He still has some good years left, plus the eye test tells me he's a bit better defensively than broken defensive metrics. 2 WAR is pretty average. Look at the median WAR by position for 2015 (using only qualified hitters): C: 2.4 1B: 3.0 2B: 2.4 SS: 1.7 3B: 3.9 LF: 2.6 RF: 2.4 CF: 2.8 Those obviously are missing a lot of players (there were less than 20 qualified players on average for each position, so all 30 teams aren't going to be represented in each sample), but if you factor those in the median still likely falls in the 2 WAR range. It's nothing that special, unless you are upgrading from a black hole, which we are.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:27 PM) Haha I think everyone would be. Yep, which is a pretty good sign the Dodgers wouldn't be.

I doubt the Rockies would want a flyball pitcher like Johnson anyway.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 12:04 PM) http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-beginni...-pitch-framing/ Article on pitch framing. Interesting article, thanks for the link. I don't think there's been something I've changed my mind on so many times like I have on pitch framing. I really don't know where to stand. A couple comments in that article stood out to me. First, is there data on which umpires are more susceptible to pitch framing? That'd be interesting to see. Second, "I’d like to see swing rate on borderline pitches vs known pitch framers each year. Don’t forget hitters adapt too." That'd be very cool to see too, it'd be interesting to know if hitters change their approach at all with a known pitch framer behind the plate.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 26, 2016 -> 10:46 AM) Neither are we, though. Having another team in the division that's equally as good is a substantial obstacle. No disagreement there

I really think people are overrating the Tigers. Even with Upton I don't see them as much more than an 81-84 win team right now.