OmarComing25

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 07:05 PM) Stay far away from 2 year rents with .660 2nd half OPS'. Will do nothing but set the Sox back. Enough damage was done last year with clowning like this. I don't want Frazier because the Reds will want way too much, but you might have the most recency bias of anyone on this board.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 02:02 PM) Samardzija didn't "Collapse" though, as I said above he put up exactly the same fWAR he put up in 2013 and 2014. You can't be surprised by that! You can't be surprised when "Guy doesn't put up career year!" Eaton's defense was worse in 2015, but he produced more runs on offense and was a better baserunner, making him about the same player overall per game, and he played more games. And yes, you couldn't predict the collapse of LaRoche specifically, but if you sign 3 free agents, you should expect 1 of them to collapse. Maybe it would have been Cabrera, maybe Robertson, but 1 of them was going to fail badly. Especially if those 3 FAs are the mid-level guys where the risk seems to be the highest - for highest level FAs, sometimes teams just don't have the money to sign guys and they are legitimately outbid, but at the mid-level, every guy you sign is a guy the team could sign and they say "He's not worth it". Every guy we signed was a guy that their own team could have signed and they decided they had better places to spend their money. If you're counting on zero out of 3 of those guys to fail...your season will be a failure because at least one, maybe more than 1 will be disappointing or extremely bad. If "things that happen to everyone" are "terrible luck" when they happen to your team, the problem is your plan. You couldn't predict the specific things that happen...but you could absolutely predict "some bad things will happen". Maybe it's not a 36 year old hitting the wall at mid-season, it's a pitcher spraining an ankle or Chase Utley sliding into 2nd base against you. We built a team that needed nothing to go wrong whatsoever, then bet $120 million and traded away a bunch of players based on that bet. That's a sucker bet! QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 02:28 PM) I'm genuinely surprised anyone wants him, but the lesson I'm going to learn from that is "the people playing the free agent market are even stupider than I think". Will you learn that lesson as well? However, the "shouldn't risk offering him the QO" is you again projecting your own prejudices. I agree that this year didn't come out of left field as some implied, but I think it's funny that you use fWAR only when it suits your argument, even in the same post/thread. You noted in an earlier thread about the consistent discrepancies between Samardzija's bWAR and fWAR, and have said multiple times that defense can't be blamed for his poor numbers. Yet now you're claiming his 2015 equaled his 2013 and 2012 production. However, in the very same thread, you're surprised that anyone would want him, even though he just put up a 2.7 WAR. Why wouldn't a team want a 2.7 WAR pitcher? What's wrong with his fWAR value now? Seems inconsistent.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 03:08 PM) Except that his defense assuredly will regress with age. Plus, just my opinion that that's an over-weight on defensive value, esp. as the Sox are trying to build a groundball staff. Not that OF defense isn't important, but it's nothing that the Sox are really in a position to pay a premium for. They can get competence for far less. Implying that offense doesn't regress with age?

I have no idea what to expect out of EJ this year. I could see him having a Gavin Floyd '08 type of year (high 3s ERA), and I could also see him in the 4.75-5 ERA range. But I'd like to find out.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 12:42 PM) Hate to say it but preventing a run is not as same as generating one. Saladino had 12 defensive runs saved at 3rd which is like tops in baseball at 3rd base. Sanchez had 6 defensive runs saved at 2nd. Unfortunately both helped the Sox have the worst offense in baseball at those position this year. If Heywards defense regresses then you don't have much of a player if his offense doesn't pick up. I have no idea what you're trying to say here. Saladino had a 61 wRC+ and Sanchez a 60 wRC+. That is horrible. Yet Saladino was worth 1.3 bWAR and Sanchez was worth 0.7 bWAR because of their defense. Heyward is a pretty good hitter, he has a 118 wRC+ for his career. That along with his elite defense makes him worth an elite contract. Saying that if his defense regresses he won't be good is like saying if Miguel Cabrera's offense regresses then he won't be much of a player.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 11:38 AM) I feel like Hayward is going to have a career like Adrian Beltre. Some great offensive years, some .700 -.720 ops years, but always elite defense. Unsure if that's worth 200 million. Since his career year in 2004 with the Dodgers, Beltre has been worth on average 4.5 WAR per season. If Heyward gets 8 years/200 million, $25 million/year for 4.5 WAR/year would be well more than worth the value of that contract, teams would be ecstatic if Heyward had Beltre's career. And again that's not even including his 2004 season where he had 9.7 WAR.

Cespedes just had a career year, I'd rather not pay the price tag that comes along with it. Heyward will definitely be worth his contract, defense in general is still very underrated. Preventing a run is the same as generating one.

MSU hasn't impressed me all year, I think Bama wins by 10.

If we had not decided to go for it this year and hadn't signed Robertson, LaRoche, and Melky, would we have been big players in this FA market?

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 10:33 AM) Exactly what I said. He's what in his mid 30s, already has 2 world series rings. It's just about security for his family now (granted he's already made millions but still). Also considering he has trouble staying healthy and is 35, this was likely way more than anyone else offered, both in AAV and number of years.

I didn't realize the teams with the top 4 picks got that much more draft money than everyone else.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 6, 2015 -> 10:05 AM) Why would he go to the A's for anything else other than the money? They're going to be terrible. You answered your own question, for 99% of players money >>>>>> chance to win, plus he already has a ring. You'd probably do the same.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 11:26 AM) It just occurred to me that LSU might have the first overall pick in both the NFL and NBA draft. That Simmons kid is looking ridiculous. Who on LSU would go first overall in the NFL draft?

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 10:32 PM) I have a feeling he's going to do pretty well there. There's what 3 pitchers ballparks in that division? He should be fine. Balanced out a little by having Coors in the division.

Still don't understand why everything isn't reviewable, that's so stupid.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 06:22 PM) Santana's value was higher than Sale's. The difference is going to be contracts. The argument is that his contract is worth at least a 3rd top 10 prospect in baseball. I'm arguing it's really not. Santana was already the sure fire best pitcher in baseball and best of his generation at the time. It's the equivalent of Clayton Kershaw being traded by the Dodgers right now. There's nothing that says his contract is worth 2 extra great prospects. That's ludicrous. You're wrong. Sale and Santana is basically a wash in terms of performance. I still don't know why you continue to disregard money and years of control, it's at least 50% of a player's value. It's why Sale is currently a lot more valuable than Kershaw.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 05:28 PM) Apparently that's a severe underpayment by the Dodgers. You guys are also right, I shouldn't compare Santana with Sale because Santana was by far the best pitcher in baseball at the time of the trade and of his generation. Sale's value right now >>>>> Santana's value in 2008, I don't know why you keep thinking the packages should be similar. Three extra years means two extra great prospects compared to Santana, at a minimum.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 03:00 PM) Again, I'll wait for someone to show me where the precedence is three top 10 prospects in all of baseball. I don't think even Johann Santana commanded that much. IIRC Santana only had 1 year left on his contract when he was traded, and even then people thought the Mets final offer was underwhelming. The Yankees and Red Sox hypothetical deals were a lot better, the Red Sox reportedly offered two of Lester/Ellsbury/Bucholz + Crisp + Jed Lowrie + another pitcher. That would have been a huge haul, and IMO better than Urias/Pederson/Verdugo, and that was for one expensive year of Santana, not 4 cheap years of Sale.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 02:54 PM) I wouldn't go for Urias as he doesn't fill a need. But Seager can play SS, 3B or 2B. Pederson or Verdugo fill an OF spot. I don't view k*** as being any better than just a glue guy. Barnes would be a nice get too IMO. I would want to follow up a Sale trade with a Q trade to Boston or the Cubs. From the Red Sox I would want Swihart and Devers. From the Cubs I would want Soler + Contreras. Soler + Contreras for Q? Pass. Soler was replacement level this year even with an unsustainably high BABIP and even modest improvement from him means only 1ish WAR. Contreras is nice but when he's the biggest piece in a 2-person deal that's a problem. Why would Urias not fill a need? If we trade Sale then pitching suddenly becomes a huge need.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 02:14 PM) Yay for comp pick! To think that some of us were starting to get worried during August/September that no team would sign him until after the draft.

I think the Dodgers would hesitate at just a Seager and Urias for Sale swap, Friedman is really big on his prospects.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 01:37 PM) Any idea on what can be available at that time? Sox really need to hit on those picks and hopefully they are hitters. Last hitter they've developed internally has been who? Carlos Lee?? Crede. Isn't next season's draft supposed to be pitcher-heavy? Seems likely that the BPA will be a pitcher again.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 12:55 PM) I get the logic, I think you're overestimating what he will do if you count the ballpark effect, but the only thing I can get from it again is that anyone who tries to build a team with FAs as a key component is out of their mind. Well that doesn't really describe the Giants, but it did work out for the '09 Yankees.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 12:46 PM) Genuinely amazed anyone would want him let alone for this money. He got more after that season than was on the table beforehand. Good luck with this deal SF. I guess you've done that before with Zito. He projects for ~3 WAR next year, so in that sense the contract isn't really that surprising.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 5, 2015 -> 12:09 PM) LOLOLOLOLOL. I feel bad for Giants fans. I bet Samardzija has an ERA around 3 next season.