OmarComing25

I still don’t think 2 WAR players are that easy to get either. That was the problem with the Sale/Quintana/Eaton led teams, we couldn’t find any 2 WAR players to support them.

“I never want to get it up too early, get it going too early because I want to save it for when I truly need it,” Rodón said. “It works out. I’ll start out kind of slow, upper-80s, low-90s and work my way up by the fifth or fourth to low-90s, mid-90s, then kind of pitch at mid-90s at the end of the game.” This is from Fegan's article. He says it's not intentional and has tried to change his warmup routine to get it going earlier but says he can't seem to find his velocity until later in the game.

Yeah I don't see him making the list solely due to age, if he keeps hitting in AA though then he'll get attention.

Your argument was more about runs than hits, but even if you just look at runs the numbers still go against your theory. You said he often implodes when the game is late and close but he's at his most dominant in those situations, and he not only gives up fewer hits but fewer runs and homeruns than normal as well. He performs better with runners on base than with the bases empty, he also performs significantly better when he has the lead than when he's behind. You can say this all means nothing to you, but if he really wasn't pitching well when the game was on the line it would show up somewhere in the numbers. Instead all of the results show the opposite.

That logic doesn't make any sense. Of course hits in high leverage situations are bad, but the point is he gives up fewer of them than he usually does in those situations. Every pitcher has blown games, you're just using selective memory to pick out the games he did blow while conveniently forgetting all the games where he was dominant. Show some actual evidence that he blows up in big moments more often than the average pitcher does instead of just meaningless anecdotes. The numbers mean a lot more than your memory does.

You're just making stuff up. Sale's slashing line against in high leverage situations in his career: .207/.264/.334. That's actually better than he's performed in low leverage situations: .231/.286/.369 Late and close: .192/.257/.297 Tied: .212/.267/.333 Within 1 run: .209/.264/.331 His numbers are actually better when the pressure is on (late and close and 2 outs with RISP are when he's been most dominant) and worst when the score differential is 4 runs or more, seems like your memory is faulty. Got the numbers from here. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=salech01&year=Career&t=p

Incredible? Velocity is down, strikeouts are way down, walks are up, he's no longer getting groundballs, and he's giving up the hardest contact of his career. He's just been bailed out by their amazing defense and getting very lucky on balls in play, he's been completely average this year.

I think the framing stats are volatile because it also relies on your pitchers somewhat. Framing for a guy with pinpoint control like Kluber is probably a heck of a lot easier than framing for a guy like Chatwood.

Great recovery by Fry

This is implying that going by wRC+ makes Abreu look bad.

Made my day

If only we could combine them, but knowing our luck we'd just get the wrong combination of tools.

His xOBA is .395 so he's actually been underperforming his exit velo numbers. It's really too bad that all his other tools are so awful.

I still want Madrigal but while a #3 starter with the 4th pick would seem to be a disappointing outcome for the #4 pick, if you look at the #4 picks from the last 20 years that would end up being one of the best outcomes. The top three #4 picks over that time are Kerry Wood, Ryan Zimmerman and Gavin Floyd.

Wasn't he top 10 on pretty much all preseason lists? He was #7 for BA before the update and he didn't move.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-matt-davidson-became-the-most-improved-hitter-in-baseball/ Didn't see this posted anywhere here, really interesting article about how Davidson watched tape of himself from 2017 to improve his plate discipline.

Yeah I don't know how reliable the minor league batted ball metrics are compared to the major league ones, but his 2018 profile looks almost ideal to me right now. High line drive rate, high flyball rate, below average pop up rate. Also isn't as extremely pull heavy as he was last year so that would be a positive for beating the shift.

Typically the line drive leaders are in the 25-27% range. Freeman is the current active leader in career line drive rate and he's at 27%.

To me it looks like it comes down to his line drive rate. In past seasons he's been at around 17% while this season he's at 30% so it's not surprising that his BABIP is so high. I think the BABIP regression will come more from that insanely high line drive rate being unsustainable than due to general luck evening out. He's clearly making a lot better contact this year and it makes sense that a lot more balls in play are falling for hits since he's hitting so many line drives.

FWIW Steamer thinks his walk rate would be 14.5% in the majors right now. We’re talking about a guy who probably has the best eye in the minors so I don’t think that is unreasonable. He could have the eye of Narvaez with considerably more power.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2017/9/30/16387510/phillies-dodgers-brewers-left-handed-pitching-mlb-stats LHP pitched just over 25% of all innings last year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-is-wrc/ It is league adjusted, not park adjusted.

If Covey can become something that would make up for Giolito's season.

If Covey can throw 94-95 with that kind of movement he suddenly becomes really interesting. Results were definitely not fluky tonight.

Dude won the Cy Young in 2021 in my OOTP for the World Series winning White Sox. You heard it here first.