Everything posted by tray
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PECOTA predicts Sox finish 4th in AL Central
QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Feb 7, 2017 -> 05:08 PM) You've identified all of the subtractions, but you haven't quite hit the mark on the additions to fill the holes left by the subtractions that back up your assertion that the team will be better than last year. That wasn't my assertion. I said it will be better in some respects. I think Moncada will be up before the AllStar break and possibly before that. I also think that a catching tandem of Soto and Narvaez will not be much worse than what we had last season. I didn't mention Center Field but Austin Jackson was injured early so we might be better off with Charlie Tilson and Bourjous or whoever else makes the roster as a 4th outfielder. The other thing to look at it the competition in the Central. Cleveland is still heavily favored but KC might not be as good (with the notable loss a lock-down Closer) and Minnesota is not looking very strong. Detroit looks like they don't know which way they are going and may start trading off some of their star players. It's all just too early to predict right now, only to guess. So Shields fails. I doubt the Sox keep throwing him out there. They will make a move for another starter or bring someone up for his spot. Renteria is a better Manager than Ventura and that will make a huge difference. Many of these guys were asleep last season.
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PECOTA predicts Sox finish 4th in AL Central
Yes, no Sale every fifth game and no Eaton. But..there are a few things that make the team better in some respects than it was last year. No Danks, No Matt Latos, No Matt Albers, a better option at SS to start the season than Jimmy Rollins, a better option at second base with Moncada, possibly a better clubhouse attitude without Sale and Eaton, and a much better Manager than Robin Ventura. A Closer other than Robertson might be another plus considering the key games he blew that really helped to turn the season around. It is too early to make any predictions though. We will have a better idea during Spring Training, don't you think? The Sox have question marks but I am not ready to predict last place out of 30 teams yet.
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Robertson to WASH was close, now at stalemate
QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Feb 6, 2017 -> 12:15 PM) There's no way I take a lesser return for Q right now just to bank on getting Beer later. Sorry. I agree Mike. I would be happy if the Sox traded Robertson and if necessary Nate Jones for Robles plus prospects and Quintana to Pittsburgh for Austin Meadows and Keller. Then Frazier to the Yankees or Boston for a premium prospect. Those are trades that would help the Sox establish a decent core almost immediately.
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Frazier Trade Discussion
QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Feb 5, 2017 -> 12:35 PM) I don't foresee a situation where any outcome of this rebuild could possibly result in something that could take us " right back into that same place as then". By "then" I presume you mean a scenario where we find the Sox with a core that looks very similar to the one Hahn is currently selling off, one that a series of "desperate trades" and "signings" orchestrated by Hahn, Williams and Reinsdorf in the past several years failed to turn into a championship-caliber ball club. The back end of this rebuild is somewhere between three and five years from now. Mr. Reinsdorf turns 81 years old this month, so it's not too difficult to align the timing of the end of the rebuild in the next 3-5 years with a change in ownership. That would be ideal - for Hahn to build a solid core in the next few years that could be handed off to a new ownership group, one with deeper pockets than the current group who would be looking to make an immediate impact by augmenting a solid young core by going outside and acquiring high-level talent available in the market at that time. That was the unfortunate problem during the past several years - the attempt to "catch lightning in a bottle" by augmentation through dumpster diving signings. To put it another way, and to use the analogy Mr. Reinsdorf used way back when he relieved Larry Himes of his duties, let's hope Hahn spends the next few years getting us from Point A to Point B, and then hand it all off to a new owner with a different strategic approach who can successfully get us to Point C, in a sustainable fashion that has managed to elude Mr. Reinsdorf for nearly four decades now. I disagree with all of that ^
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Blue Jays have "discussed" Robertson
No doubt that there are probably a few teams looking for bullpen help that are interested in Robertson to some degree. My guess is that those teams will send scouts to the WBC to see how he performs before they make an offer for him.
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Discussion: How the Sox compete in 2017
QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 26, 2017 -> 02:10 PM) Losing is one thing. Having many games blown open by the 2nd or 3rd inning could set the fanbase back a bunch. I stick until the end of blowouts until the end. I bail on rain delays. But last year, I had several Shields starts, and it was getting very difficult keeping up with tradition. People who aren't into it as much are going to become disinterested faster. Same for me. They have to establish a decent rotation and have some long relief to maintain interest from the fan base. Once the Sox trade Quintana and Frazier they aren't going to be getting back any top prospects for other players. That is when the rebuild changes gears and the Sox have to sign some (decent) free agents to fill out the starting rotation and the line-up. The Bourjos signing looks (to me at least) to be a clear sign that Hahn does not expect to trade for or acquire a decent outfielder prospect before the season starts. That's kind of depressing.
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Soxfest 2017
Moncada, Tim Anderson and perhaps Zach Collins are a nice beginning to a core of position players. When Hahn adds two or three more premier position players /prospects I will see the light at the end of the tunnel. Right now I am not that confident in the plan and admittedly lack the patience some of you have in waiting 3-5 years to have a competitive team. But I'm still going to go to games and watch every one I can. I just like winning.
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Discussion: How the Sox compete in 2017
2016 - The LaRoach fiasco soured Sale and Eaton from day one and impacted team chemistry. Mat Latos had a few early wins and then fell apart. Danks lost the Home Opener and never won another game. Matt Albers fell apart after the quick start to the season. Robertson blew some big leads late in games we should have won. Ventura left him out there to get beaten up, which impacted the morale of the players and the fans. Several players did not work out - Jimmy Rollins at SS, Alex Avila and Navarro catching and Avi Garcia. Shields was a late addition who proved to be a disaster. 2017- Several lessons have been learned and the mistakes Ventura made will not be made by Renteria. For one example, Renteria handles pitchers more like Tito Francona than Ventura did. I have watched Renteria manage and is I recall he makes changes as soon as he senses trouble rather than waiting for a disastrous inning to happen. While Sale is gone, so are Latos and Danks. There are some pitching reinforcements that may come through. Moncada could inject energy to the team when he is brought up in May. Other trades might happen. I feel better slightly about the 2017 season than I did before last season. Let's wait to see what they have and how they play in ST before writing them off completely.
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Eaton and Frazier Verbal Battles
My apologies to those here who I may have disagreed with for stating that the Sale and Eaton trades were prioritized not only because of Sale's trade value, but also to deal with insubordination and clubhouse issues. Whether there are any more major trades or not, that seems to make more sense to me in hindsight. I'm OK with the Sox standing pat for now and seeing how the existing talent comes together in ST. There might be a few guys that surprise us as I said in another thread. Even Robertson might be worth holding on to so he can possibly re-establish himself as a closer or set-up man.
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Yordano Ventura, Andy Marte both killed in separate car accidents
I don't know how much the alcohol played into this accident but I did notice that there was a semi upside down on the other side of the road. Please everyone, use extra caution around semis which pose all kinds of risks, especially on roads like I-80, 294, 55, 94, and the other highways around Chi-town. . Yesterday I almost got smashed by a 40,000 roll of steel that popped loose on a flat bed semi right in front of me. And if you want to go out and have a few, enlist a designated driver or call Uber or a Taxi. You only have one life and remember, ST is not that far off.
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Predict Thy Numbers: Omar Narvaez
I think it is impossible to predict based on his small stint on the major league roster. It is worth noting that Flowers hit for a .223 BA with a .289OBP in seven years with the White Sox. If the Sox have a catcher who can hit .240 and be decent defensively, that would be an upgrade. Can Narvaez do that? Not sure That is one of the big questions and why the Sox signed Soto. But that is not to write this player off yet. He surprised everyone when he came up last year.
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Not a Typical Rebuild According to White Sox
There are a few players and pitchers that might surprise us and change the rebuilding equation, at least in terms of the timetable. I have a few favorites of mine that I think might be in that category - players that no one expects much from, and then end up over performing expectations. First one is Omar Narvaez. Omar came up briefly last season and showed that at least he can hit the ball. I think he has some upside and he is just 24 years old. Tyler Saladino in my opinion played a decent second base and made some unbelievable plays going up the middle. He also had some clutch hits and started hitting with some power. I would have him as my starting second basemen, then possibly play Moncada at third and Frazier at first. That would leave Abreu to share 1B/DH (until one is traded). Matt Davidson started hitting very well in ST last year. I wonder if he could possibly play LF. If he could, then switch Melky to RF where his arm would be more valuable than it has been in LF. Then DFA Avi Garcia. Charlie Tilson is another x factor who could end up surprising us as a Center Fielder, especially if he still has the speed he had before the injury. Our pitching staff has too many potential surprises to mention and everyone here knows who they are. Burdi, Kopech, Gio, and others. So it's the old story of "ifs" , that perennial questions that many teams have at the beginning of the season -- if, if, if multiple players perform beyond expectations, you might have a decent team. If that ends up happening you have to think about changing the timetable on the rebuild and maybe forget about tanking the season.
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Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week
I think it is useful to revisit the Cubs trade to the A's" for 3 prospects in July 2014. "Samardzija, 29, is 2-7 with a 2.83 ERA this season. Hammel, 31, is 7-5 with a 2.98 ERA . Hammel is set to become a free agent after this season, while Samardzija has one more year of arbitration before becoming a free agent. Russell, 20, is ranked third among all prospects on ESPN Insider Keith Law's top 100 list. Russell has appeared in only 18 games this season due to a hamstring strain, hitting .333 in 58 at-bats at Double-A Midland. McKinney, 19, has a .241 batting average with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs in 75 games for Class A Stockton this year. Straily, 25, is 1-2 with a 4.93 ERA in seven starts for the A's. The right-hander is 13-11 in 41 starts for Oakland over the past three seasons. I believe Billy Beane thought this would let them make a run. Lessons can be learned from history, even recent history. One of the biggest lessons is patience. I am hoping Hahn has enough of it to wait this thing out until the time is right to win on a trade. I don't buy the no-balls. fold'em instead of hold 'em, school of thought which claims that Q must be traded before ST lest he be injured, his performance drops, the market for pitchers weakens... This is our biggest trade chip. Hahn has to be The Gambler. Bluff, posture, look confident, and win at baseball's version of poker.
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#IwantBeer2018
QUOTE (peavy44 @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 12:22 AM) CheerforBeer2018 Trade Quintana AND Rodon. Try to trade Frazier and Melky.
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Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week
QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 17, 2017 -> 09:43 PM) Why? Explain to me why Hahn's perception of Quintana's value is wrong and Luhnow or Huntington's perception of Quintana's value is right? Why should we compromise? In regards to a barren pitching market, how many assets have you seen become available like Q before? Irregardless of how many other SP's might come on the market in the next 6-18 months, how many do you suppose will provide the surplus value that Quintana does, especially if teams aren't showing a willingness to liquidate their prospects for such assets? This notion that some influx of other reasonable arms coming on the market is somehow going to water down Quintana's market is pure horses***. You don't think those pitchers are truly available today, as potential tradeable assets rather than free agents? You don't think the Tigers would trade Verlander? It's not a question of a barren market, it's question of an asset being so valuable that teams are hesitant to liquidate assets for them. That shouldn't cause us to lower our price. What that requires is patience. Finding the "right" buyer isn't always a fast process, but that buyer does exist. Hahn will find them. Yes, you are right on the money. I get the thirst for trade rumors or trade news but this is a rebuild that is supposed to take 2-3 years, not 2-3 months. The Q trade is absolutely critical to this rebuild. I don't care if it takes until next off-season and I would take the risk of Q having a bad season given his proven durability. I don't see Detroit unloading Verlander for a basketful of prospects. Remember, Theo got Addison Russell for Shark, a premier elite position player for a middle of rotation pitcher. Hahn has to win this trade and that requires patience.
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Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week
QUOTE (Special K @ Jan 17, 2017 -> 07:55 PM) Q has been as consistently good as any pitcher in the league the last few years. Zero reasons to take a less package for him, especially whatever garbage package of sub-standard prospects the Astros want to throw at us. Q is an all star TOR with probably the best contract in baseball. We need an A headliner positional prospect, not just a bunch of b level prospects. Hold onto him if the package isn't there. He will do what he does and some team at the deadline who is desperate for an arm will give in. Exactly. The bushels of prospects reportedly wheeled up by interested teams have been a waste of everyone's time. The trade for Q has to be considered almost as a one-for-one deal with some minor league talent going one way or the other.
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Potential MLB free agent adds
Sox need another starting pitcher or two that can eat innings, abnd possibly a middle relief guy that can do that. They also need a decent Lefty set-up man to replace Zach Duke. I am going to be pulling for Tilson and Davidson to make the 25 man roster.
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Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week
Rodon was a first round draft pick and is now a proven major league pitcher with potential. In fact, if Quintana is traded, Rodon might well be the Sox Ace. Rodon's potential is clear to professional scouts and GMs around the league. As such, he has plenty of trade value as a powerful, young, top of the rotation lefty starter. If Levine is right and there are several suitors for Quintana, and some teams are not willing to part with enough talent to get Q, there is no reason why they might not be interested in Rodon at a slightly lower cost in return talent. So, for the right return of prospects, including outfield or catcher prospects that can hit the ball, I would trade Rodon in a flash. No player is untradeable, at least no player that the Sox have on their roster, including Rodon. As some claim here, the market demand for starting pitchers is high and the supply is low. That argues in favor of trading pitchers instead of waiting. A boatload of prospect for Quintana and Rodon could seriously advance the rebuilding process. It could also help to develop young pitchers in our system that will get a chance to pitch in the major leagues like Fulmer. If those young pitcher struggle, that might increase the chance that the Sox tank in 2017 and get a high Draft pick in 2018.
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Teams have upped their offers in Q derby in the last week
An admittedly crazy thought crossed my mind after reading that several teams may now have upped their offers. If Hahn really likes these supposedly increased Offers, perhaps he might consider dealing Q to one team and Rodon to another. That might really move the timetable for the rebuild forward. We give up half of our remaining rotation, but that could be a major haul of prospects, one like we have never seen before in such a short time period. OK, I know I have really lost my mind now, so back to watching football.
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Update: Luis Robert has been cleared according to Rosenthal
If the Sox really believe in this player they can go over the international signing bonus and suffer the consequences: All overages are taxed at 100 percent. Exceed bonus pool by 5 to 10 percent: Team is not allowed to sign a player for more than $500K in the following international signing period. Exceed by 10 to 15 percent: Team is not allowed to sign a player for more than $300K in the following international signing period. Exceed by more than 15 percent: Team is not allowed to sign a player for more than $300K in the following two international signing periods. The Sox need All Stars at almost every position to compete for a World Series championship. that is also why Hahn will not trade Q for a bunch of prospects who might make it to the big leagues as average players. Q is the only player left on the roster that might bring back a A+ position player prospect. So the best way to get additional potential All Star type players is from he Draft or from the International signing pool. I say go for it. Try to get this player.
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Sox holding talks "daily" on Q
IMO, Hahn gets his man, Austin Meadows, or Hahn walks and Q is our Ace until July when the "market" for a top of the rotation pitcher by contending clubs will present a better environment for a trade.
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Sox holding talks "daily" on Q
Hahn has and will continue to demand certain key position players from whichever team he is negotiating with. Next years potential free agent pitching market does not change that, nor does any pressure exerted on the Sox to make a trade. Patience is a virtue in trade negotiations. Hopefully he has a lot more patience than we do as Sox fans.
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Sox holding talks "daily" on Q
QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 12, 2017 -> 01:33 PM) Did you just compare Josh Bell to Dayan Viciedo? Holy f*** is that a terrible comparison. It'd actually a decent comparison if you make that comparison at the same age and weight. Josh Bell is actually worse in the outfield and cannot play first base. Neither one are major league level players. Bell is Tank II. No thanks.
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Sox holding talks "daily" on Q
If I could put Hahn's hat on I would take the following options, if they would be offered for Q, in this order: 1. Astros: Bregman , (and I might include another player from the Sox to get Breg, like Frazier) 2. Yankees : Frazier, Torres (don't need Diaz) (I would also trade Frazier to them if they wanted him for another prospect) 3. Pirates: Meadows, Keller (I'd throw in Avi Garcia, lol,) Please no Josh "Tank II" Bell. 4. If none of the above (which increasingly apapears to be the case) wait to trade Quintana for another day. In the meantime, I would try to reacquire Tray Thompson from the Dodgers. Edited to add: Frazier and/or Melky might be useful for the Yankees or one of the other teams, a and might possibly put one of these deals over the top.
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Sox holding talks "daily" on Q
QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 11, 2017 -> 04:13 PM) I would think you'd be way MORE nervous about a contention plan that is centered on last year's White Sox minus Adam Eaton and Chris Sale. Yea, that's what I thought. I'm just getting frustrated with no trades getting done.