Demeritte and Riley are garbage. Only the most posi-Braves seriously consider them as players who will ever impact the MLB roster.

 

If I had to guess, I would imagine Coppy has offered 2 pitchers not named Wright (and probably not both Allard and Soroka), plus Pache, plus 1-2 other fungible assets. Hahn has that offer in his back pocket, and if the Yanks, Astros, Brewers, Rockies, or maybe even the Cubs, give in and include an elite position prospect, Hahn jumps.

 

Absent those teams flinching, getting one of Allard or Soroka could very well be the biggest piece available to Hahn. If I were a Sox fan, I would hope he doesn't gamble again on keeping Q in hopes of netting a bigger return at a later date. It almost bit him once already, and he is unlikely to luck out again.

I'd disagree with your trepidation of holding onto Q. We'd likely be able to land a top 20 positional prospect ++ in the offseason where Quintana will still have 3 full years of control.

 

Still think we end up with a top 20 position guy ++ before July 31st.

I get where you are coming from, but I highly doubt the main piece(s) in a Q package would be an arm. Sox need bats and Q is their last blue chip piece to get high end positional prospects.

 

/shrug

 

Then that likely eliminates the Braves.

 

If Coppy includes one of Acuna, Albies or Matain, he made a mistake...to Hahn's benefit.

If I had to guess, I would imagine Coppy has offered 2 pitchers not named Wright (and probably not both Allard and Soroka), plus Pache, plus 1-2 other fungible assets. Hahn has that offer in his back pocket, and if the Yanks, Astros, Brewers, Rockies, or maybe even the Cubs, give in and include an elite position prospect, Hahn jumps.

 

That deal ain't gonna get it done. Sox can do much better than Pache as the best bat, and Sox already have probably the best stable of pitching prospects in baseball.

/shrug

 

Then that likely eliminates the Braves.

 

If Coppy includes one of Acuna, Albies or Matain, he made a mistake...to Hahn's benefit.

 

Maybe, but you have to remember that not all prospects will pan out. Eventually you should cash some in for quality mlb players to help build a contender.

 

Adding a controllable Quintana + Braves other young talented guys could make your team interesting in a hurry.

I'd disagree with your trepidation of holding onto Q. We'd likely be able to land a top 20 positional prospect ++ in the offseason where Quintana will still have 3 full years of control.

 

Still think we end up with a top 20 position guy ++ before July 31st.

 

Really? You honestly think Q's value is going to be higher than it was last off season or this trade deadline? If that offer wasn't available then or now, it won't magically be available this winter.

 

His value is only going to go down as the Sox waste his years/postseasons of control on a losing team.

 

Take it from someone who watched the Braves waste tens of millions of dollars of Teheran's value by letting him pitch for a losing team...Hahn should cash him in now.

That deal ain't gonna get it done. Sox can do much better than Pache as the best bat, and Sox already have probably the best stable of pitching prospects in baseball.

 

I like the Braves pitching prospects better due to more depth at this point, but Sox have some quality arms

I have the feeling a lot of you guys are going to be disappointed by any return the Sox get for Q.

 

Some of these packages thrown in here are ridiculously overpriced.

 

Q is good but some need to temper expectations. I'd say a top 25, a top 100 & a top 10-12 organizational talent would be a max out of what the Sox will see for him & that's a very good get.

Really? You honestly think Q's value is going to be higher than it was last off season or this trade deadline? If that offer wasn't available then or now, it won't magically be available this winter.

 

His value is only going to go down as the Sox waste his years/postseasons of control on a losing team.

 

Take it from someone who watched the Braves waste tens of millions of dollars of Teheran's value by letting him pitch for a losing team...Hahn should cash him in now.

 

Hahn does not need to deal Q to the Braves, plenty of other interested teams: Yankees, Astros, Rockies, Brewers, Twins, Blue Jays, etc.

I have the feeling a lot of you guys are going to be disappointed by any return the Sox get for Q.

 

Some of these packages thrown in here are ridiculously overpriced.

 

Q is good but some need to temper expectations. I'd say a top 25, a top 100 & a top 10-12 organizational talent would be a max out of what the Sox will see for him & that's a very good get.

 

Which is pretty much exactly what my Albies + Gohara + Pache + lotto ticket amounts to

What are Braves fans thoughts on Dustin Peterson? He was a guy that I had looked into during the offseason when rumors started up about the Braves and I liked what I saw - seems like a professional hitter. Any concerns on the wrist injury earlier in the year?

 

Soroka + Gohara + Pache + Peterson?

 

DPete is a fungible asset. He is likely a useful guy while he is cheap, and is then a non-tender candidate the moment he hits arbitration.

 

Soroka + Gohara + Pache + Peterson is very likely in line with the max offer Hahn has from the Braves.

 

I wouldn't take it if he can get an elite position guy from a contender.

 

Of course, Coppy might do something stupid and include an elite bat. If so, happy you...sad me haha.

Really? You honestly think Q's value is going to be higher than it was last off season or this trade deadline? If that offer wasn't available then or now, it won't magically be available this winter.

 

His value is only going to go down as the Sox waste his years/postseasons of control on a losing team.

 

Take it from someone who watched the Braves waste tens of millions of dollars of Teheran's value by letting him pitch for a losing team...Hahn should cash him in now.

This past winter another pitcher was the prize, who fetched two blue chippers. Expecting one blue chip prospect for Q is not unreasonable. We've seen reports that a Q deal was set to go down this last offseason but was shot down at the ownership level by the opposing team.

 

Strongly feel we'll get a good young bat ++ for him.

 

There's nothing magical about it. He's worth it.

Which is pretty much exactly what my Albies + Gohara + Pache + lotto ticket amounts to

 

I think if the Sox deal w/ ATL, it'll be something like Acuna, Cohara, Pache & a lotto arm.

 

I don't think they are all that interested in Albies, personally.

 

If they could land that package, Sox fans should be very pleased & frankly, ATL fans should be too.

Hahn does not need to deal Q to the Braves, plenty of other interested teams: Yankees, Astros, Rockies, Brewers, Twins, Blue Jays, etc.

 

I've said exactly that about 5 times now.

 

I laid out what to expect from the Braves. If I were Hahn, I would look elsewhere.

 

However, if Allard or Soroka are indeed the best available piece, I would not risk letting Q continue to waste his value pitching for a losing team. His value is not going to increase...we've already seen that. Established SPs never increase in value...only lose it as their years of control tick away. Every fan likes to think "this scenario is different", but it's not different...it's never different.

I've seen these values hold up pretty well actually. The disconnect seems to occur when folks fail to factor in the contender's premium teams pay for the current year...usually ~2x the value of the current rest of season projected production plus projected postseason production.

 

Knowing you are going to use a player in the postseason is extremely valuable, and teams are forced to pay for that value accordingly when they make these trades.

 

Well, according to the chart, the Cubs traded over $100M in surplus value for four months of Aroldis Chapman, which is a premium closer to 10x than 2x.

The return the Yankees got for Miller, what the Sox got for Eaton and Sale, all show that things aren't quite as linear as is presented in that article and the author really minimizes the risk of prospects based on their distance from the majors as a further discount in his formula. As a Pirates fan, he definitely has a vested interest in overvaluing prospects, and the market was moving in the same direction in the last few seasons after the success of the Royals. But things appeared to have over corrected in the last year.

 

This past winter another pitcher was the prize, who fetched two blue chippers. Expecting one blue chip prospect for Q is not unreasonable. We've seen reports that a Q deal was set to go down this last offseason but was shot down at the ownership level by the opposing team.

 

Strongly feel we'll get a good young bat ++ for him.

 

There's nothing magical about it. He's worth it.

 

You guys keep responding as if I'm denying Q's worth. I'm simply stating what the Braves are likely to offer.

 

If you think Q's value will somehow increase once he is controlled for 3 seasons plus 3 postseasons instead of 3.5 season plus 4 postseason...well, I'm not sure how you can logically defend that position.

Well, according to the chart, the Cubs traded over $100M in surplus value for four months of Aroldis Chapman, which is a premium closer to 10x than 2x.

The return the Yankees got for Miller, what the Sox got for Eaton and Sale, all show that things aren't quite as linear as is presented in that article and the author really minimizes the risk of prospects based on their distance from the majors as a further discount in his formula. As a Pirates fan, he definitely has a vested interest in overvaluing prospects, and the market was moving in the same direction in the last few seasons after the success of the Royals. But things appeared to have over corrected in the last year.

 

Not going to go through all those names, but I would estimate Sale had a surplus value in the $80M-$100M range. Moncada was probably worth ~$80M, and Kopech probably in the ~$15M range. The other guys are fungible assets...maybe $10M combined.

 

Now consider the BoSox also got Sale for 3 postseasons, and can limit their downside considerably by declining his 2 options, and I think those surplus values add up almost perfectly.

 

Not really here to get into a surplus value debate tho...

I've said exactly that about 5 times now.

 

I laid out what to expect from the Braves. If I were Hahn, I would look elsewhere.

 

However, if Allard or Soroka are indeed the best available piece, I would not risk letting Q continue to waste his value pitching for a losing team. His value is not going to increase...we've already seen that. Established SPs never increase in value...only lose it as their years of control tick away. Every fan likes to think "this scenario is different", but it's not different...it's never different.

 

Yes, it will be very interesting. The Braves have a lot of interesting pitching, but that might not be a fit. However, Hahn has a history of being into 3 ways, so you never know. Hahn needs at least one really good hitting prospect back, I understand that no fan base is interested in giving those guys up, so it will be interesting to see who flinches.

Theres always someone to trade. After this round of trades we will have Rodon, Abreu, Avi, Sanchez, Jones, and whoever takes over at closer to talk about in the winter.

Rodon will not be traded

You guys keep responding as if I'm denying Q's worth. I'm simply stating what the Braves are likely to offer.

 

If you think Q's value will somehow increase once he is controlled for 3 seasons plus 3 postseasons instead of 3.5 season plus 4 postseason...well, I'm not sure how you can logically defend that position.

Agreed; guys, down boys, down. Stop gangbanging him. He comes in peace.

 

I think you are probably pretty accurate.

 

It will be interesting to see if the Braves FO caves and offers one of those bats (I don't think anyone truly expects one to be Acuna - even Rick Hahn), along with Allard or Newcomb, and then a third piece like Pache.

 

I would accept Maitain/and one of the LHPs/Pache if I was Hahn.

 

I know people will think he's too far away, but I'd rather gamble on him have Albies.

There is zero chance the Sox would turn down a deal involving McMahon and Rodgers form Colorado.

Rodgers would be hard to turn down, but I think McMahon is incredibly overrated and makes a terrible second piece.

From the Braves, I was hoping for Albies or Acuna but then dropping a bit lower on a second piece like Wentz and rounding it out with another lower ranked pitcher and hitter. Braves have great pitching prospects and its not like some other organizations.

Rodon will not be traded

 

He will at some point, he won't be extended and he will hit free agency right in the middle of the contention window. If he has a second half similar to last season I can see him getting moved over the winter especially with the what quality pitching is going to cost in FA.

He will at some point, he won't be extended and he will hit free agency right in the middle of the contention window. If he has a second half similar to last season I can see him getting moved over the winter especially with the what quality pitching is going to cost in FA.

s***, would anyone be shocked if this Braves talk turned in Rodon instead of Q?

 

All the sudden the framework ends up being Rodon for Acuna or something?

s***, would anyone be shocked if this Braves talk turned in Rodon instead of Q?

 

All the sudden the framework ends up being Rodon for Acuna or something?

 

Not my preferred time to trade Rodon, coming off an injury and a few starts.

Not my preferred time to trade Rodon, coming off an injury and a few starts.

No, I get it...but despite some of his struggles, I'm sure he excites some FO's in ways Q does not.