List https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospect...r-eloy-jimenez/

 

(6) Eloy

(17) Kopech

(40) Hansen

(47) Cease

(55) Robert

(84) Burger

(89) Dunning

(90) Rutherford

List https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospect...r-eloy-jimenez/

 

(6) Eloy

(17) Kopech

(40) Hansen

(47) Cease

(55) Robert

(84) Burger

(89) Dunning

(90) Rutherford

 

Burger eh? Highest publication on him I've seen.

Poor Collins...

Burger eh? Highest publication on him I've seen.

 

weird inverse of everyone else where they like our depth but hit our high impact depth (relatively lower on top guys, higher on next tier)

Really happy to see some of our drafted guys starting to get attention. That makes me feel much better about us having a chance to sustain something in the future. Hopefully this is the year we get some more of Latin American signings to break out.

Rutherford had a 63 wRC+ after the trade last year. His statistical track record since being drafted is extremely underwhelming. It seems likely he ends up moving to a corner. Can someone please sell me on him being a top 100 type prospect?

Rutherford had a 63 wRC+ after the trade last year. His statistical track record since being drafted is extremely underwhelming. It seems likely he ends up moving to a corner. Can someone please sell me on him being a top 100 type prospect?

 

The publications seem to be much more focused on his ceiling, while Sox fans are focused on his stats.

The publications seem to be much more focused on his ceiling, while Sox fans are focused on his stats.

I know development isn't linear, but man, I would be very interested to see how comparable prospects to Rutherford ended up faring. I don't see how his lack of production and extreme GB profile shouldn't be setting off alarm bells.

I know development isn't linear, but man, I would be very interested to see how comparable prospects to Rutherford ended up faring. I don't see how his lack of production and extreme GB profile shouldn't be setting off alarm bells.

 

I think the in person reports see a kid who likes spraying the ball over the field which has caused the GB rate. If he fills out and changes approach he could unlock his potential.

 

 

I came into this thread to say that after being on two different top 100s in a row that maybe the Rutherford detractors would maybe cool it, but it looks like I'm already wrong about that.

I think the in person reports see a kid who likes spraying the ball over the field which has caused the GB rate. If he fills out and changes approach he could unlock his potential.

 

But the in person reports for him were awful according to KLaw. Very weak contact and definitely not a CF.

But the in person reports for him were awful according to KLaw. Very weak contact and definitely not a CF.

 

Ok so that doesn't really contradict what I said.

 

Longenhagen for instance scouted him last august. Talked about how it looked like he was almost trying to be a singles hitter so even if he got more powerful it may not lead to that much different results. And that sounds similar to how Rutherford talks about it. Counter that with Burger who was hitting way too many grounders and spent the offseason trying to never hit a groundball.

 

That said, when you hear the BA guys, or fangraphs, or others talk about him they still see a player with a sweet lefthanded swing that could figure it out, and that in winston-salem has the perfect place to build some confidence.

 

I guess it just depends how fatalistic you are (don't answer fathom). Do you have a guy in Rutherford who has shown to have no talent and is imploding? No, but you have a guy that needs to show a big adjustment, so he'll get docked until he does.

 

He's not a guy that just needs to keep doing what he's doing, he needs to improve. So until he does it's not really that exciting to me that he's in the top 100.

 

Said it before, I have a sinking feeling that Blake Rutherford is actually Ryan Sweeney. Who didn't have a terrible career or anything, but the power never developed and he wasn't a true CF so he was just kind of a lower tier starter a couple or three years, then a 4OF for a few more.

 

 

Said it before, I have a sinking feeling that Blake Rutherford is actually Ryan Sweeney. Who didn't have a terrible career or anything, but the power never developed and he wasn't a true CF so he was just kind of a lower tier starter a couple or three years, then a 4OF for a few more.

 

Wow.. that's an amazing comp.

Said it before, I have a sinking feeling that Blake Rutherford is actually Ryan Sweeney. Who didn't have a terrible career or anything, but the power never developed and he wasn't a true CF so he was just kind of a lower tier starter a couple or three years, then a 4OF for a few more.

Hopefully Rutherford has a big '18...If not I've lost all hope that he even makes the ML

Wow.. that's an amazing comp.

Another more hopeful comp could be Kyle Tucker of the Astros. 18 year old out of the draft in 2015 he put up a .647 OPS, 19 year old in 2016 improved to .798, 20 year old in 2017 improved to .874 to make him a major prospect. The home runs went from 3 to 9 to 25 those years.

Another more hopeful comp could be Kyle Tucker of the Astros. 18 year old out of the draft in 2015 he put up a .647 OPS, 19 year old in 2016 improved to .798, 20 year old in 2017 improved to .874 to make him a major prospect. The home runs went from 3 to 9 to 25 those years.

 

Just used this name in another thread, but Micker Adolfo is another who had a couple of pretty brutal seasons, plus some injuries and aggressive assignments before having what is hopefully a breakout season last year.

I think the main point of everyone is you don't need to write him off but it's okay to acknowledge he's not on same, steady progression of our other prospects like Hansen and Kopech, and he needs to legitimately show next year or the year after.

 

Don't pencil him in for 2020 basically.

Another more hopeful comp could be Kyle Tucker of the Astros. 18 year old out of the draft in 2015 he put up a .647 OPS, 19 year old in 2016 improved to .798, 20 year old in 2017 improved to .874 to make him a major prospect. The home runs went from 3 to 9 to 25 those years.

 

If Rutherford can put up a season similar to what Kyle Tucker did in 2016 that would be terrific and a significant step in the right direction. While I am not expecting him to do so, I don't think that type of season is unreachable for Blake.

Another more hopeful comp could be Kyle Tucker of the Astros. 18 year old out of the draft in 2015 he put up a .647 OPS, 19 year old in 2016 improved to .798, 20 year old in 2017 improved to .874 to make him a major prospect. The home runs went from 3 to 9 to 25 those years.

Wow, their numbers look even more similar when you look at just his A ball numbers in his second year compared to Rutherdord's second year. If you take into account the Rutherford was traded and people said it took him some time just to get comfortable on his new team and that could negatively impact his performance, he very well could be on the same track as Tucker. That actually gives me a ton of hope for him this year.

Just keep in mind entered league a year older than Tucker. He's already had his age 20 season (at two levels lower than Tucker)

I think the main point of everyone is you don't need to write him off but it's okay to acknowledge he's not on same, steady progression of our other prospects like Hansen and Kopech, and he needs to legitimately show next year or the year after.

 

Don't pencil him in for 2020 basically.

One other thing that crosses my mind - we've got a bunch of guys like this. Collins, Cease, Rutherford, Adolfo, Burger - there's a ton of talent in some of these guys. Several of them are fringey top 100 guys because "some person at some publication likes them a lot". They're very unlikely to all succeed, but they're also unlikely to all fail, unless we have something systematically wrong with our scouting. If a couple of them succeed, then in a year or so we're talking about 2 more top 50 guys, in addition to our pick this year.

Another more hopeful comp could be Kyle Tucker of the Astros. 18 year old out of the draft in 2015 he put up a .647 OPS, 19 year old in 2016 improved to .798, 20 year old in 2017 improved to .874 to make him a major prospect. The home runs went from 3 to 9 to 25 those years.

Yeah, I think people need to be realistic with Rutherford and hope for gradual improvements. As long as he shows some reasonable signs of progress next year, I’ll remain optimistic with him. Development isn’t always linear and he has the physical tools to make a big leap at some point.

Just keep in mind entered league a year older than Tucker. He's already had his age 20 season (at two levels lower than Tucker)

 

And Ryan Sweeney was already in AA (about to reach AAA) at Rutherford's age. Point is, noone knows how this kid is going to project.

And Ryan Sweeney was already in AA (about to reach AAA) at Rutherford's age. Point is, noone knows how this kid is going to project.

I agree, looking forward to a fresh start and full year of development in our system for him. I think if he puts it all together we're looking at a Andre Ethier type of out come on the high end Ryan Sweeney on the low end, I don't believe he is going to stick in CF and more than likely winds up in LF.