May 10, 20196 yr 2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Moncada: Last 15: .241/.297/.362 with 19/4 K/BB Last 30: .250/.300/.425 with 38/8 K/BB I'm starting to get a little concerned that his numbers this year are incredibly inflated by the hot streak he was on in the first week of the season. Maybe he isn't as good this year as we thought he was. If that is what his slumps look like, it's not a bad thing
May 10, 20196 yr Just now, mqr said: If that is what his slumps look like, it's not a bad thing Are we sure it's just a slump though? That is the positive approach, but the season is too young to say for sure. They've played 46 games and it seems like most of his prodcution was in the first 16 games.
May 10, 20196 yr 2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Are we sure it's just a slump though? That is the positive approach, but the season is too young to say for sure. They've played 46 games and it seems like most of his prodcution was in the first 16 games. He's been ugly for like a week and half. Games 17-27 he had an .800 OPS.
May 10, 20196 yr Even though he hasn't been putting up great numbers he still looks much better to me than he did throughout last year.
May 10, 20196 yr 37 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Are we sure it's just a slump though? That is the positive approach, but the season is too young to say for sure. They've played 46 games and it seems like most of his prodcution was in the first 16 games. 7 minutes ago, JuliusO1274 said: Even though he hasn't been putting up great numbers he still looks much better to me than he did throughout last year. On this subject, I actually just wrote about this and why I believe his start is legit. Basically, his BABIP is about normalized relative to his contact profile and his xwOBA/wOBA ratio suggests that, if anything, he has been unlucky, so as long as he maintains his contact profile and his K rate doesn't jump astronomically, this is sustainable. https://soxon35th.com/2019/05/10/yoan-moncadas-luck-has-normalized-and-his-numbers-are-still-terrific/
May 10, 20196 yr 13 minutes ago, Hatchetman said: Overall numbers aren’t great for a 3B. Exactly and if he’s not going to be stealing bases, then all of the value of his bat is being negated
May 10, 20196 yr 17 minutes ago, Hatchetman said: Overall numbers aren’t great for a 3B. Not “great” but by all accounts a 125 wRC+ is certainly “good.” Keep in mind he turns 24 this month. I’d be thrilled with a 125 wRC+ 3b that just turned 24 if he maintains it for the entire season.
May 10, 20196 yr 42 minutes ago, Hatchetman said: Overall numbers aren’t great for a 3B. His wRC+ of 125 so far this season would habe been good for 9th best in baseball last season. For a 23 year old, that isn't bad.
May 10, 20196 yr 1 hour ago, Jose Abreu said: On this subject, I actually just wrote about this and why I believe his start is legit. Basically, his BABIP is about normalized relative to his contact profile and his xwOBA/wOBA ratio suggests that, if anything, he has been unlucky, so as long as he maintains his contact profile and his K rate doesn't jump astronomically, this is sustainable. https://soxon35th.com/2019/05/10/yoan-moncadas-luck-has-normalized-and-his-numbers-are-still-terrific/ He had 2 K-free games in the first series against Baltimore. Since that series ended, he's played 13 games, had 55 PAs, and his K rate in those games is 34.5%. Obviously I selected the time period where it looks the worst, but still...that's the exact stat you said to watch and it looks bad lately.
May 10, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: He had 2 K-free games in the first series against Baltimore. Since that series ended, he's played 13 games, had 55 PAs, and his K rate in those games is 34.5%. I think he'll end the season with a K-rate between the 24% it was hovering around for awhile and the 34% it is in that sample. Maybe somewhere around 27-29%. If that ends up happening, his numbers will still look very good at the end of the year, all other things equal.
May 10, 20196 yr 4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said: Moncada: Last 15: .241/.297/.362 with 19/4 K/BB Last 30: .250/.300/.425 with 38/8 K/BB All numbers are from whitesox.com I'm starting to get a little concerned that his numbers this year are incredibly inflated by the hot streak he was on in the first week of the season. Maybe he isn't as good this year as we thought he was. Every player has inflated value when it's going good and should be DFA when he's going bad. Most are somewhere in the middle. Fans are not easy to please.
May 10, 20196 yr 2 hours ago, Balta1701 said: He had 2 K-free games in the first series against Baltimore. Since that series ended, he's played 13 games, had 55 PAs, and his K rate in those games is 34.5%. Obviously I selected the time period where it looks the worst, but still...that's the exact stat you said to watch and it looks bad lately. If the numbers over the last 15 and last 30 days weren't so similar, I wouldn't be as concerned.
May 10, 20196 yr 42 minutes ago, poppysox said: Every player has inflated value when it's going good and should be DFA when he's going bad. Most are somewhere in the middle. Fans are not easy to please. See above post. The overall stats look fine so far, but we have to see if he's somewhere in between his hot streak at the start of the season and the guy that he has been over the last 30 days. Given that the last 30 days is ~60% of the season to date, I tend to lean towards that. Edited May 10, 20196 yr by Jack Parkman
May 10, 20196 yr I think that all players need to be mindful of the way opposing staffs are likely to pitch them, which varies depending upon how they have been hitting. Until a player proves that he can hit various offerings in the strike zone, pitchers should and will pound the zone. However, once a hitter proves himself and gets "hot," pitchers will tend to stay away from the strike zone, as much as possible. Of course, they will also pitch to a hitters weakness. However, I'm referring here to the difference between pitching around, versus getting right after a hitter. Depending on who else is in the lineup and where, in that lineup, a batter is hitting, pitchers will be more, or less, aggressive. For example, I would imagine that, as hot as Yelich and Bellinger have been, that pitchers have recently not been as aggressive. When that happens, the batter needs to become less aggressive and take a few more walks. Last year, Moncada was being much too passive, which we all recognized. This season, he started out being more aggressive and hitting pitches that were not necessarily center cut. I suspect that pitchers have now adjusted to his adjustment. Perhaps it's time for him to be a little more patient, at least until pitchers throw him more pitches in the zone. The same is true for Anderson. As hot as he was, the first month, opposing pitchers have recently thrown him a lot of sliders, out of the zone. He too must not chase those pitches. Once he learns to take walks, he will be a consistently potent offensive weapon. I have always thought that this constantly changing approach of pitchers, is probably the biggest reason that guys have hot and cold streaks. The hotter a hitter is, the harder it is to maintain his hot streak, because pitchers are naturally going to start to stay away from the zone, when pitching to a guy, who is really "on fire". You can't blame pitchers. To do otherwise would be foolish.
May 10, 20196 yr 57 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: See above post. The overall stats look fine so far, but we have to see if he's somewhere in between his hot streak at the start of the season and the guy that he has been over the last 30 days. Given that the last 30 days is ~60% of the season to date, I tend to lean towards that. After about what, 60 plate appearances with a much improved K-Rate, people were saying "K-rate is one of the first things to stabilize and this is much improved!". Now he's had just under 60 plate appearances with a much worse K-Rate, so I'll be honest, I have no idea which way this player is going to go this season, but it's definitely disconcerting that he hasn't been able to sustain that vastly improved K-rate.
May 10, 20196 yr 12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: After about what, 60 plate appearances with a much improved K-Rate, people were saying "K-rate is one of the first things to stabilize and this is much improved!". Now he's had just under 60 plate appearances with a much worse K-Rate, so I'll be honest, I have no idea which way this player is going to go this season, but it's definitely disconcerting that he hasn't been able to sustain that vastly improved K-rate. ^^^^^ The answer of course with Moncada is we don't know yet. There are reasons to be encouraged and reasons to be discouraged but we all have to just let this season play out. Out of all of the 1st wave players, the guys I believed in the most were Moncada and Giolito, as despite their early poor results I believed they were too talented to suck forever. Patience seems to be paying off with Giolito. If i'm willing to give Moncada until the end of his age 25 season just like I was with Giolito.(and what I mean by that is that they're 25 when the season is over, as they both have mid-season birthdays) if Moncada hasn't figured it out by the end of 2020, then It's time to admit he's a massive disappointment. If Giolito has a regression and is bad the rest of this season, I would say the same about him (I don't think that is going to happen though) We just have to let the rest of the season play out and see what happens. Edited May 10, 20196 yr by Jack Parkman
May 10, 20196 yr Yoan Moncada was not brought on board to merely be just slightly above average or "good". As the former #1 prospect in all of baseball and the centerpiece of the Chris Sale trade he was acquired with the idea that he would blossom into a superstar. The Sox need Moncada to turn into an elite talent like Baez, Bregman, or Boegarts. The Sox will not be competing for any World Series without a few elite position players.
May 10, 20196 yr 12 minutes ago, OneDog847 said: Yoan Moncada was not brought on board to merely be just slightly above average or "good". As the former #1 prospect in all of baseball and the centerpiece of the Chris Sale trade he was acquired with the idea that he would blossom into a superstar. The Sox need Moncada to turn into an elite talent like Baez, Bregman, or Boegarts. The Sox will not be competing for any World Series without a few elite position players. OneDog, I don't think the rebuild can survive, especially at this point, without Moncada becoming a superstar. When the whole thing got started, I've always said that if Moncada fails to be a superstar, this rebuild fails. If he's very good, it could survive at the beginning, but no longer is that the case. Moncada HAS TO develop otherwise this whole thing is kaput. Edited May 10, 20196 yr by Jack Parkman
May 10, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said: OneDog, I don't think the rebuild can survive, especially at this point, without Moncada becoming a superstar. I would say Moncada, Jimenez and Kopech all have to be better than good for this thing to work out
May 10, 20196 yr 1 minute ago, soxfan49 said: I would say Moncada, Jimenez and Kopech all have to be better than good for this thing to work out Add Robert to that mix as well. At this point, you're absolutely right. The margin for error is razor thin. The 4 big prospects have to be great, otherwise the Sox are fucked. Edited May 10, 20196 yr by Jack Parkman
May 10, 20196 yr 5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Add Robert to that mix as well. At this point, you're absolutely right. The margin for error is razor thin. Don't forget about Cease and Madrigal as well. It is clear as the water in Cancun that JR is going to have to open up the wallet in order for this rebuild to succeed. Expecting all the young kids to hit their ceiling is downright delusional.
May 10, 20196 yr 8 minutes ago, OneDog847 said: Don't forget about Cease and Madrigal as well. It is clear as the water in Cancun that JR is going to have to open up the wallet in order for this rebuild to succeed. Expecting all the young kids to hit their ceiling is downright delusional. Kopech and Cease have more wiggle room because the other guy has the ability to pick up the slack. Edited May 10, 20196 yr by Jack Parkman
May 10, 20196 yr 39 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Kopech and Cease have more wiggle room because the other guy has the ability to pick up the slack. Not exactly, especially since Rodon will clearly never be a TOR guy for us. Take a look at the 4-5 starters in Cleveland's rotation, or the top guys in Houston's rotation, 1 elite pitcher is often not enough in this league.
May 10, 20196 yr 19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Not exactly, especially since Rodon will clearly never be a TOR guy for us. Take a look at the 4-5 starters in Cleveland's rotation, or the top guys in Houston's rotation, 1 elite pitcher is often not enough in this league. Even so, Cleveland has 2 #1s(Kluber/Bauer) and 2#2s(Carrasco/Clevinger) when healthy. It's going to be hard to get to that level at this point. If Kopech/Cease/Giolito all reach their ceilings you have 2 aces and a #2 which is close. Edited May 10, 20196 yr by Jack Parkman
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