Balta1701 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Just now, ChiSox59 said: And, for the record, I didn't assume every player on the roster takes a step forward. I mentioned Giolito, Timmy, and Moncada, and Lopez. That is 16% of the roster. Not the whole roster. I think each of those SHOULD be expected to take a step forward next season - it'd be hard for Giolito and Moncada not to. And you mentioned Rodon, and you mentioned the bullpen. Someone from that list is going to get worse this year or get hurt or both. Or if it's not them, then it'll be someone else they're counting on like Abreu or Narvaez or the free agent signing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: And you mentioned Rodon, and you mentioned the bullpen. Someone from that list is going to get worse this year or get hurt or both. Or if it's not them, then it'll be someone else they're counting on like Abreu or Narvaez or the free agent signing. I clearly said "a full season of Rodon" is a step in the right direction. Big difference. I don't really care to continue this discussion with you. Everything White Sox related will always be awful and everybody will always suck in your mind. Its tiring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dam8610 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Pomeranz and Gonzalez are the two most attractive options on that list IMO, though Gonzalez would mostly be a bridge/flip candidate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 My bias love for Gio probably sways this too much for me. Still my favorite pitching prospect (to watch or follow) ever in our org. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 If we want someone slightly better than Shields but who will also likely pitch a strong number of innings, Gio would be a decent bet, that's a very consistent 170+ innings per year. He might require more than a 1 year deal though, which might make him very tough to move in trades or to the bullpen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcq Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Time for Shields to move on maybe KC could use him. Eovaldi would be nice but someone will overpay. Sox will find an under the radar candidate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 7 hours ago, Balta1701 said: You see a path to not sucking on that list? I love everything is so black & white with you. There will be quality starting pitchers that come out of this class and there will also be landmines. A guy like Pomeranz was really good prior to last season. He’s a guy we should definitely roll the dice on. The other guy I really like is Lance Lynn (not on that list) if I can get him on two year deal max. Add those guys and you have something like this: Rodon Lynn Lopez Pomeranz Giolito By June or July it’s possible Dylan Cease could be ready and would take over for the weakest guy or whomever is traded. That rotation has the potential to be pretty damn good IF things go right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 5 hours ago, Balta1701 said: So you're assuming that every player on the roster takes a step in the right direction? There's one problem. My first rule of thumb is "First do no harm" in 2019. That means - play the kids every day, bench them if needed, rest them if needed, but don't be aggressive with them because you need to win a game. Don't trade away talent this offseason to get better. Don't sign guys who might cost a draft pick. Don't sign guys who might even potentially block the spot of someone we might need in 2020 (that counts the entire starting rotation). Don't sign guys that cost us substantial resources or money that could be spent going into 2020. Stay the course, we've done the job so far, now don't take detours just to win 75 games instead of 70 next year. What in the world are you talking about? Who are we blocking in the rotation, 3B, OF, etc?? Your idea that adding a single starter to a two year deal would be blocking our young pitching is comical. Depth is only a good thing, whether we need it internally or can cash it in for other assets. Adding veterans to short-term deals will NOT do us harm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I love everything is so black & white with you. There will be quality starting pitchers that come out of this class and there will also be landmines. A guy like Pomeranz was really good prior to last season. He’s a guy we should definitely roll the dice on. The other guy I really like is Lance Lynn (not on that list) if I can get him on two year deal max. Add those guys and you have something like this: Rodon Lynn Lopez Pomeranz Giolito By June or July it’s possible Dylan Cease could be ready and would take over for the weakest guy or whomever is traded. That rotation has the potential to be pretty damn good IF things go right. I'm sorry, but not only is that not a rotation where everything is remotely likely to go right (Jesus 3 of the 5 guys had ERAs over 4.75 this year I think the average is over 5 and you're expecting all of them to get better?), even if everyone stayed healthy and improved on last year, just go look at how that rotation stacks up against the Native American Sterotypes from Cleveland. Kluber, Klevinger, Carrasco, Tomlin, and a 23 year old at the end. The guys in our rotation would be 5th starters in that actually good rotation even if many things went right. Go look at the Astros rotation this year to play the same game, with Verlander, Cole, Morton, Keuchel, and McCullers - our guys would be the injury replacements. That is not "pretty damn good" even if everything goes right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: What in the world are you talking about? Who are we blocking in the rotation, 3B, OF, etc?? Your idea that adding a single starter to a two year deal would be blocking our young pitching is comical. Depth is only a good thing, whether we need it internally or can cash it in for other assets. Adding veterans to short-term deals will NOT do us harm. Rodon, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Cease. Which one is not in the rotation in 2020? Which one should we block with a guy on a 2 year deal? That doesn't count any of the other guys at Charlotte or perhaps Dunning staying healthy either. Unless Rodon is traded, every one of those 5 should have a slot open for them in the 2020 opening day rotation and they should not be blocked until something catastrophic happens or we give up on Giolito completely, which you clearly don't believe will happen based on the previous post where you assumed he would be a lot better. 3b? OF? Bring it on, but with one caveat - in 2021 our outfield is going to be F***ING OVERLOADED, because we have 4 outfielders who should be at AA this year who will be arriving then. So yeah, give me an outfield upgrade, but let me know where those guys are going to play 2 years from now, because if none of them make it then this won't matter anyway because all of our talent imploded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: Rodon, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Cease. Which one is not in the rotation in 2020? Which one should we block with a guy on a 2 year deal? That doesn't count any of the other guys at Charlotte or perhaps Dunning staying healthy either. Unless Rodon is traded, every one of those 5 should have a slot open for them in the 2020 opening day rotation and they should not be blocked until something catastrophic happens or we give up on Giolito completely, which you clearly don't believe will happen based on the previous post where you assumed he would be a lot better. 3b? OF? Bring it on, but with one caveat - in 2021 our outfield is going to be F***ING OVERLOADED, because we have 4 outfielders who should be at AA this year who will be arriving then. So yeah, give me an outfield upgrade, but let me know where those guys are going to play 2 years from now, because if none of them make it then this won't matter anyway because all of our talent imploded. When was the last time the White Sox or any other team went through a season with 5 healthy starters? Gio had an ERA over 6.00, and a TJ in his past. Lopez’s peripherals left a lot to be desired. Rodon has a shoulder surgery, Kopech had TJ, Cease has a TJ in his history. To think the 2020 White Sox have no room in their rotation is laughable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Dick Allen said: When was the last time the White Sox or any other team went through a season with 5 healthy starters? Gio had an ERA over 6.00, and a TJ in his past. Lopez’s peripherals left a lot to be desired. Rodon has a shoulder surgery, Kopech had TJ, Cease has a TJ in his history. To think the 2020 White Sox have no room in their rotation is laughable. Well, first of all I was replying to a person who said that everything was going to go right this year for this to be a pretty good rotation, so Rodon being hurt, Gio having a bad ERA, and Lopez having bad peripherals - none of those are allowed, because we were just told that wasn't going to be the case. Secondly...if we're going to pull the plug on one of those guys...fine. It might happen. Why are we predicting there will be no pitchers available on the free agent market next offseason? If we really have to spend money on a pitcher, what would we rather be doing, having $10 million or $15 million locked up in 2020 on someone like Lynn, or having $25 million available to make a run at someone decent like Verlander or that lefty who closed out the World Series? When was the last time there were 0 pitchers available on the Free Agent market? Keep your options open. Keep 5 rotation slots available for those guys, and adapt once we're there if necessary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: I'm sorry, but not only is that not a rotation where everything is remotely likely to go right (Jesus 3 of the 5 guys had ERAs over 4.75 this year I think the average is over 5 and you're expecting all of them to get better?), even if everyone stayed healthy and improved on last year, just go look at how that rotation stacks up against the Native American Sterotypes from Cleveland. Kluber, Klevinger, Carrasco, Tomlin, and a 23 year old at the end. The guys in our rotation would be 5th starters in that actually good rotation even if many things went right. Go look at the Astros rotation this year to play the same game, with Verlander, Cole, Morton, Keuchel, and McCullers - our guys would be the injury replacements. That is not "pretty damn good" even if everything goes right. Yup, no chance the three 24-25 year old former top 40 prospects (top 10 for two of them) could become pretty good next year. Yup, no chance the guy who put 3+ WAR seasons in 2016 & 2017 and whose velocity starting trending up towards the end of the season could be pretty good next year. Yup, no chance the guy who has put up 2.8 WAR in 5 of the last 6 seasons (including last year) could be pretty good next year. Will they all be good next year? Probably not, but I could see us realistically getting 12 WAR out of those guys with enough development / good luck. And there’s definitely upside beyond that if you assume development isn’t linear with our young guys, but unfortunately that’s not something you seem willing to accept. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 The last time we really had 6 legit starters was going into 2006 with Javy and McCarthy. I'm with most here in that we need at least ONE if not TWO additions to the rotation for depth. All you have to do is look at what the Dodgers went through in the last couple of years to see why. We're one injury away from another year of Dylan Covey at this point. The odds of Giolito, Rodon and Cease staying healthy for the entire season isn't exactly high probability stuff. Lynn and Pomeranz are good candidates, didn't Lynn pitch much better the second half of the season after he got his legs underneath him due to the late "spring training" for him? Gio would be fine, although he's probably going to get 2+ years instead of taking a one year deal. We might want to kick the tires on Erwin Santana. Morton for one year, as a flip candidate. There are tons of possibilities, but it would be pretty negligent to go into the season without at least one "decent" quality addition below Corbin's tier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 1 minute ago, caulfield12 said: We might want to kick the tires on Erwin Santana. Morton for one year, as a flip candidate. There are tons of possibilities, but it would be pretty negligent to go into the season without at least one "decent" quality addition below Corbin's tier. Charlie Morton's been on record in the local papers talking about retiring. I think there's a decent chance the Astros talk him into coming back, maybe even for more than 1 year, but I am seriously skeptical about the idea that he'd come to a team like the White Sox knowing there's a good chance he'd be traded and moving midseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Yup, no chance the three 24-25 year old former top 40 prospects (top 10 for two of them) could become pretty good next year. Yup, no chance the guy who put 3+ WAR seasons in 2016 & 2017 and whose velocity starting trending up towards the end of the season could be pretty good next year. Yup, no chance the guy who has put up 2.8 WAR in 5 of the last 6 seasons (including last year) could be pretty good next year. Will they all be good next year? Probably not, but I could see us realistically getting 12 WAR out of those guys with enough development / good luck. And there’s definitely upside beyond that if you assume development isn’t linear with our young guys, but unfortunately that’s not something you seem willing to accept. And a 12 WAR season from the rotation, the ideal case, is not going to put this team anywhere near .500. The league average this season was 11. That is not a "pretty darn good rotation". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Rodon, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez, Cease. Which one is not in the rotation in 2020? Which one should we block with a guy on a 2 year deal? That doesn't count any of the other guys at Charlotte or perhaps Dunning staying healthy either. Unless Rodon is traded, every one of those 5 should have a slot open for them in the 2020 opening day rotation and they should not be blocked until something catastrophic happens or we give up on Giolito completely, which you clearly don't believe will happen based on the previous post where you assumed he would be a lot better. 3b? OF? Bring it on, but with one caveat - in 2021 our outfield is going to be F***ING OVERLOADED, because we have 4 outfielders who should be at AA this year who will be arriving then. So yeah, give me an outfield upgrade, but let me know where those guys are going to play 2 years from now, because if none of them make it then this won't matter anyway because all of our talent imploded. Probably the one who is injured or the one who flops this year. Assuming the five arms that we have in place will be healthy, ready, & deserving of a role (or not traded in Rodon’s case) is quite the optimistic expectation from you. And I have never assumed that Lucas Giolito will be a lot of better. In fact the last time we got into this argument I said it’s likely one of these kids will flop. And guess what bud, if all our young guys work out there are these things called trades where we can move the veteran to open up a spot. And good god man, you got to work on those reading comprehension skills. My entire argument has always been adding vets on “short-term deals”. Signing an OF to a one or two year is something I can get behind as it really wouldn’t be blocking anyone. At some point you need to accept there are ways to make the on-field product better without jeopardizing the long-term viability of the rebuild. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Charlie Morton's been on record in the local papers talking about retiring. I think there's a decent chance the Astros talk him into coming back, maybe even for more than 1 year, but I am seriously skeptical about the idea that he'd come to a team like the White Sox knowing there's a good chance he'd be traded and moving midseason. Can we get the list of things you aren’t skeptical about with regards to the White Sox? I imagine it’s a short list so would help clear up a lot of things for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said: Can we get the list of things you aren’t skeptical about with regards to the White Sox? I imagine it’s a short list so would help clear up a lot of things for us. Some guys will improve next year, the team will be better, Eloy Jiminez will be a monster but may or may not need a little time to adapt, but the team is something under a 70 win team without Kopech and maybe 75 if they land a Machado, even with a couple starting pitching adds to fill the rotation. Kopech, Cease, Rodon, Lopez, and Giolito is the makings of a league average rotation in 2020 and, depending on Rodon being traded or not, a really good rotation in 2021 as long as we actually give them time to pitch in 2020. We have no obvious candidates for 3b anywhere in this organization right now so sign away, unlike last year you can even talk me into Moustakas (although waiting on Arenado would seem a smarter move). We are loaded on outfielders and so we should expect that we're going to have a number of breakout outfielders hitting this team in 2021 including more than 1 guy who can play center field. With a reasonable amount of things going right and wrong, this team should be around .500 in 2020, probably a few games under because of that starting rotation, and really good in 2021 once the rotation gets a year together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 Am I arguing with an insane person? I even italicized “IF” because I knew Balta would try this bullshit. Under no circumstance do I expect everything to go right with that rotation, but it’s certainty in the realm of possibility. Just like how no one expected everything to go wrong with our rotation last year and that more or less happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: And a 12 WAR season from the rotation, the ideal case, is not going to put this team anywhere near .500. The league average this season was 11. That is not a "pretty darn good rotation". Again, reading comprehension my man. I literally said there was upside for more beyond that, so not sure how you’re trying to spin the 12 WAR scenario into the “ideal case”. And 12 WAR would represent like an 8 game improvement from our rotation alone. Combine that with a Machado signing, a decent OF addition, Eloy, and some improvement from our young guys like Moncada & Anderson and a .500 season looks like it could be in the realm of possibility when you play in the worst division in sports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Am I arguing with an insane person? I even italicized “IF” because I knew Balta would try this bullshit. Under no circumstance do I expect everything to go right with that rotation, but it’s certainty in the realm of possibility. Just like how no one expected everything to go wrong with our rotation last year and that more or less happened. If you're going to make decisions thinking about "If everything goes right", fine, but don't do things that impede the long term plan in the process. Don't commit our 2020 rotation slots or 2020 free agent spending on a pitcher in 2019 just in case everything goes right. Pomeranz on a 1 year deal is a fine idea, we clearly need 2 guys just to fill out the rotation, just don't tell me that your dream is Drew Pomeranz and Lance Lynn added to this rotation next year will give it any reasonable prayer of being above average, and don't impede the org from doing actual work in 2020 when it might matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 28 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Charlie Morton's been on record in the local papers talking about retiring. I think there's a decent chance the Astros talk him into coming back, maybe even for more than 1 year, but I am seriously skeptical about the idea that he'd come to a team like the White Sox knowing there's a good chance he'd be traded and moving midseason. If he gets a QO from the Astro's he'll probably take it. 1 more year of $18M to bolster the ol' retirement portfolio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said: Probably the one who is injured or the one who flops this year. Assuming the five arms that we have in place will be healthy, ready, & deserving of a role (or not traded in Rodon’s case) is quite the optimistic expectation from you. And I have never assumed that Lucas Giolito will be a lot of better. In fact the last time we got into this argument I said it’s likely one of these kids will flop. And guess what bud, if all our young guys work out there are these things called trades where we can move the veteran to open up a spot. And good god man, you got to work on those reading comprehension skills. My entire argument has always been adding vets on “short-term deals”. Signing an OF to a one or two year is something I can get behind as it really wouldn’t be blocking anyone. At some point you need to accept there are ways to make the on-field product better without jeopardizing the long-term viability of the rebuild. Look at the Brewers. They went out and got Cain and Yelich, and didn't care if it would block Domingo Santana and Thames, who both had very solid offensive seasons in 2017 but were defensively-challenged/limited. Basically, it amounts to this. Every year we'll have a Delmonico/Narvaez/Yolmer/Palka on the plus breakout side, but is anyone really counting on them being consistently capable of performing at high levels? That's the $20,000 question. Edited November 2, 2018 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: If he gets a QO from the Astro's he'll probably take it. 1 more year of $18M to bolster the ol' retirement portfolio. Why that sounds like the FIRE movement. Morton you sly dog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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