I’ve been a huge fan of Grandal for years, but now just doesn’t seem like the right time to sign him.

That's such a bad tweet.

I'd personally go 

Harper -

Phils 10%

Sox 5%

Field - 85%

 

Machado-

Yanks - 15%

Sox - 5%

Field - 80%

 

I dunno I usually take the field since it's 28 other teams in this case.

19 minutes ago, daggins said:

I'd personally go 

Harper -

Phils 10%

Sox 5%

Field - 85%

 

Machado-

Yanks - 15%

Sox - 5%

Field - 80%

 

I dunno I usually take the field since it's 28 other teams in this case.

I just can’t see which teams would actually spend $400M on Harper other than us & the Phillies.  

No one in the AL Central other than us.  The Yankees & Red Sox out, so no one in the AL East.  I don’t see any of the AL West teams spending that kind of money.  The NL East has the Phillies & Nationals, but I see Washington spreading that money around to fill multiple holes.  I don’t see the Braves as a legit option either.  The only team in the NL Central is maybe the Cardinals, but Machado would be the better fit.  That leaves the NL West and adding a $400M contract goes against everything Friedman stands for.  And outside of LAD, none of those teams appear to be legitimate options.

So in summary, the market for Harper really comes down to the Phillies, White Sox, Nationals, & maybe the Cardinals.  I think we have a real shot there.

Giants, too. There are also some teams that could surprise. I'd be surprised if the Braves DIDNT make a run at him, and who knows what the Rockies will do. I do think his AL market is limited but there's still plenty of possible suitors.

Edited November 15, 20187 yr by daggins

If you're really confident he's going to opt out, then it's easy to offer him a boat-load of money.

6 hours ago, bmags said:

That's such a bad tweet.

It really really is.  I'm serious about eating at Gibsons or Maestros tonight, but a more realistic option could be a 7-11 hot dog.

That's A+ Chicago reporting.

4 hours ago, Jake said:

If you're really confident he's going to opt out, then it's easy to offer him a boat-load of money.

Well not for all these teams. The Rockies were just mentioned. The 2018 payroll for the Rockies was $141 million, that's the highest they've ever had, beating their 2017 number by $10 million. Already,  before they make another move, the Rockies have $140 million committed this offseason unless they do something wild like trading Arenado. Things like that are buried in "easy", it's only easy if you're willing to boost your payroll $50 million higher than it's ever been for one year.

1 hour ago, LittleHurt05 said:

It really really is.  I'm serious about eating at Gibsons or Maestros tonight, but a more realistic option could be a 7-11 hot dog.

I had the same joke in my head, but with cars. I’m serious about buying a Porsche or an Aston Martin, but a more realistic option would be a Camry.

On 11/14/2018 at 1:57 PM, Dam8610 said:

In fact, since you posted it, let's go 10/410 with opt outs at 3, 6, and 7.

55-55-50-/-55-50-50-/-40-/-25-20-10

So, let's look at year 3, assuming he's produced well. Teams aren't stupid, so he won't be looking at a 10/400 deal at age 29, but for sake of argument, let's say 7/280 is out there. Why would he opt out of 3/155 to get 7/280? He'd be getting over half that money in the first 3 years and could then supplement those earnings at age 32 with a 6/150 deal, which would likely be available at that point, or he could stick with it one more year, get 4/195, then supplement that with a 5/125 deal that would likely be available to him were he performing well at age 33. Any way you look at it, with the exception of teams becoming stupid again, it's stupid for the player to opt out at the age 29 season, and a lot smarter to opt out at age 33, which I want them to do anyway.

I am all for front loading the deal to add some financial heft, but this seems batty.  Harper is great, and I'd love the Sox to sign him, but he isn't worth 50+ per season.  If he stays for the first 3 or 6 years,  it would be 3/160 or 6/315?????? That is insane.  It isn't worth it to the team.  You don't have to beat his suspected market value by 15 million per season.  In this scenario he would opt out after 3 or 6.  I would say likely after year 3, because he would still be 29 and would likely be able to command another 8-10 year deal, and if he couldn't command that deal, boy do you not want him at over 50 million for the next 3 seasons.  

The front loading is tricky with the opt outs (though remember the opt outs add value to the deal as well.  If they were doing something like this they would need to make years 1&2 attractive, 3 probably below average, then offer the opt out, then make 4&5 really attractive, with 6 below average.  Then make years 7-10 around AAV of the deal.  By doing that the Sox get some value out of years 3&6, and it should be looked at as if it were 2 separate 3 year contracts, and then a 4 year contract.  Harper gets 2 front loaded deals, and straight AAV on the back end.  So, if it is a 10/350 deal, something like 45/40/20 __OPT OUT__45/45/15__ OPT OUT__ 40/40/30/30.

That way Harper gets front loaded deals, therefore added value.  He still gets his opt outs, but the Sox get some protection.  They loading themselves up with risk averaging 50 million at all.  The AAV of the first 3 years is 35 million, though compared to a deal that is 35 across the board, it would add value, even more so compared to a backloaded or deferred deal.  The second 3 years averages the same.  The final 4 average to the same.  So the AAV would be 35.  But again, with the opt outs, you need to look at this as 3 separate contracts, with each being front loaded.  Would he opt out after 3, well, still maybe.  He would be 29, and could likely surpass 6/210 on a deal at that point.  I think, if you front load it more than that, you need to push the opt outs back.

10 hours ago, bmags said:

That's such a bad tweet.

Exactly what I was thinking when I first saw the tweet. Just awful. Ofman is a hack. 

 

God damn Phillies.  Hopefully they land Machado and then use the rest of their money on pitching.

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Just what Boras needs some owner already being dumb. If Phillies willing to have $175-200M payroll, game over for the Sox.

 

2 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Just what Boras needs some owner already being dumb.

Lol...right?  I mean I was expecting the Phillies to be aggressive, but to come out and say they plan to be “stupid” is kind of a kick to the balls TBH.  That being said, we just got to hope Jerry’s old age causes him to do something dumb as well.

Worse yet, he has to announce it and admit that they are willing to spend "stupid" money. Geez!!!

Now I hope the Phillies don't land any big fish. 

I suppose that it all depends upon what he considers "stupid". Who knows, he might think that our suggestion of $400 Million is not just stupid, but rather Insane. Of course, Sox management hasn't suggested that they would go that far.

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol...right?  I mean I was expecting the Phillies to be aggressive, but to come out and say they plan to be “stupid” is kind of a kick to the balls TBH.  That being said, we just got to hope Jerry’s old age causes him to do something dumb as well.

I mean, the winning offer is likely to be considered "stupid money" regardless since it will be such a high, record breaking amount. The amount of people on this board that want either Harper or Machado are going to flip sides to the "good thing we didn't spend that amount of money on either" side after they sign with another team.

Edited November 16, 20187 yr by soxfan2014

2 minutes ago, Lillian said:

I suppose that it all depends upon what he considers "stupid". Who knows, he might think that our suggestion of $400 Million is not just stupid, but rather Insane. Of course, Sox management hasn't suggested that they would go that far.

Yep. Exactly what I tried explaining below your post.

39 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

God damn Phillies.  Hopefully they land Machado and then use the rest of their money on pitching.

Yeah, right now, this is the Sox' clearest path to getting a big fish.

So maybe the next tweet we read will be: While the Phillies were serious about Harper and Machado, they spend stupid money on Yasmani Grandal.

?

Maybe another team can be the idiot left behind?

Do we think that the team that signs machado will actually let him play SS?

32 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

I mean, the winning offer is likely to be considered "stupid money" regardless since it will be such a high, record breaking amount. The amount of people on this board that want either Harper or Machado are going to flip sides to the "good thing we didn't spend that amount of money on either" side after they sign with another team.

There is realistically no amount of money that would cause me to flip sides.  I want a god damn whale.

13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There is realistically no amount of money that would cause me to flip sides.  I want a god damn whale.

Same.