How damaging would a year of zero revenue be for franchises?

I've talked to some folks today and this is what Im expecting. 

Many scouts and one former director still think that this year's draft will be 10 rounds. In that scenario: HS kids that get their number will still go pro, college juniors who are drafted will go pro. College juniors not drafted will return to school. Most seniors will take the $20K in UDFA. That's more than many of them get anyway. Draft will be 20 rounds in 2021 and likely 20-25 going forward. This is a money saver but not by much. The biggest takeaway is that MLB will wipe out many low level affiliates such as Great Falls. More senior types will end up in INDY ball. A team like the Sox could easily just add another AZL team to get guys playing time. I'm working on bonus pool amounts right now. 

I'm not sure what the difference is between 5 and 10 rounds.  If the bonus pools are the same rounds 7-10 will just be money savers anyway.  If the NCAA votes not to grant another year those college seniors will get $1k.  The players union sold amateurs out hard.  

14 hours ago, DirtySox said:

 

So basically all the elite / popular clubs will have an advantage to sign the UDFA.  Good job MLB!

5 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I'm not sure what the difference is between 5 and 10 rounds.  If the bonus pools are the same rounds 7-10 will just be money savers anyway.  If the NCAA votes not to grant another year those college seniors will get $1k.  The players union sold amateurs out hard.  

Control over players becomes much more important.  You can't draft someone in the 11th-40th round any more.  You don't have the incentive to save money for later rounds either.  No HS player is going to sign if they aren't drafted early.  There is no Bryce Bush to be  had for $20k.  This is going to be 10 rounds of picks they want.  Senior signs will happen from UDFAs.

My layman's take is - why would the players and owners not agree to that part of the deal? Owners save money, and what is the downside if you're a player?

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Control over players becomes much more important.  You can't draft someone in the 11th-40th round any more.  You don't have the incentive to save money for later rounds either.  No HS player is going to sign if they aren't drafted early.  There is no Bryce Bush to be  had for $20k.  This is going to be 10 rounds of picks they want.  Senior signs will happen from UDFAs.

Not necessarily. Clubs go just decide to go overslot the first 5 rounds and then give seniors $25K in rounds 6-10. That would basically be a 5 man draft class but it's one possiblt strategy. 

Same strategy as last year. Over slot rounds 2-5 and sr signs the rest of the way.  I guess there could be some manipulating here and there but with teams not getting good looks at players not sure there is much of a difference between the two. 

Another thing I don't understand is why bother moving it back and screwing up the '21 draft.  They can do a 5-10 round draft right now.  

29 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Not necessarily. Clubs go just decide to go overslot the first 5 rounds and then give seniors $25K in rounds 6-10. That would basically be a 5 man draft class but it's one possiblt strategy. 

That's a really big risk to artificially limit yourself that much.  I think more likely would be to go underslot in round 1, and they go big for the other nine.

50 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So basically all the elite / popular clubs will have an advantage to sign the UDFA.  Good job MLB!

There will be a small popularity aspect to it but much more important will be the relationship or lack thereof the area scout established with the player.  It will be much more difficult for the teams who fired their scouts to sign these guys.  

Using the 2019 draft bonus slots, this is what the deal will be for the White Sox. 

With a 5 round draft: $7,744,700

With a 10 round draft: $8,757,500

 

Round 1: 11th-$4,547,500

Round 2: 47th-$1,580,200

Round 3: 84th-$721,900

Round 4: 113th-$512,400

Round 5: 143rd-$382,700

Round 6: 172nd-$291,400

Round 7: 202nd-$227,700

Round 8: 232nd-$181,200

Round 9: 252nd-$162,700

Round 10: 282nd-$149,800

 

53 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

There will be a small popularity aspect to it but much more important will be the relationship or lack thereof the area scout established with the player.  It will be much more difficult for the teams who fired their scouts to sign these guys.  

Interesting...thanks for sharing that!

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

There will be a small popularity aspect to it but much more important will be the relationship or lack thereof the area scout established with the player.  It will be much more difficult for the teams who fired their scouts to sign these guys.  

I would imagine a lot of players were also be smart to look at positional depth at the various levels as to where to go.  For example, as loaded as systems like Tampa and San Diego are it is going to be much harder to find PT, versus a garbage system like Boston.

No doubt a player would be wise to look at an organization where he would have the best path to the big leagues but ultimately it will be on the area scout to convince him it's with his organization. I wonder how much these money grubbing fucks are even going to allocate for these players.  They may just sign a few for $5k and call it a day.  

I think path to the majors matters more for college prospects. HS prospects often take 4-5 years and you can hardly plan that far ahead but for advanced college guys who might take 2-3 years it could play a bigger role.

Hypothetically speaking: If the draft were 5 rounds, the White Sox 5th rounder would have a slot number of $382,700. The college juniors that are on the bubble of that round would likely sign for in that neighborhood. The Sox could offer a guy like $100K to sign in round 5 because if that player doesn't get drafted, his choices are to take $20K undrafted or enter the draft as a senior the following year with no leverage. 

Last year their 5th rounder signed for $10k. I think they would use the same strategy.  Slot for the 1st, over slot 2nd and 3rd, under slot 4th and 5th.  They obviously won't be able to over slot as much as last year on the 2nd and 3rd picks because they won't have the under slot money from rounds 6-10 but getting three good players out of this mess is about all you can hope for.

 

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Last year their 5th rounder signed for $10k. I think they would use the same strategy.  Slot for the 1st, over slot 2nd and 3rd, under slot 4th and 5th.  They obviously won't be able to over slot as much as last year on the 2nd and 3rd picks because they won't have the under slot money from rounds 6-10 but getting three good players out of this mess is about all you can hope for.

I think it will still be 10 rounds. Their 5th highest bonus amount was DJ Gladney at $225K. He's really their 5th rounder if you stack it that way. 10 rounds and the owners only pay $100K for each guy up front. The draft would cost $1 million plus the undrafted guys in year one. How will these owners survive? 

If it's 10 rounds then they should definitely use last years strategy.  College guy in the first and over slot HS guys in the 2nd and 3rd.  The key will be rather than signing college Sr's in rounds 5-10 finding college juniors or JC's guys who want to play and are willing to sign for nothing.   That's an example of an area scout really knowing his players.  

2 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

If it's 10 rounds then they should definitely use last years strategy.  College guy in the first and over slot HS guys in the 2nd and 3rd.  The key will be rather than signing college Sr's in rounds 5-10 finding college juniors or JC's guys who want to play and are willing to sign for nothing.   That's an example of an area scout really knowing his players.  

100%. College juniors that otherwise that might get $400-$500K are going to get squeezed to either take less, sign for $20K or give up all leverage and go back to school. 

Yep especially if the NCAA isn't going to grant them another year of eligibility which knowing those assholes is the likely scenario. 

Manfred is a shortsighted whorebag.  Rather than growing the game he's fucking over the players of the future so the billionaire owners can save a few bucks.  They should all be ashamed of themselves.  

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Yep especially if the NCAA isn't going to grant them another year of eligibility which knowing those assholes is the likely scenario. 

Manfred is a shortsighted whorebag.  Rather than growing the game he's fucking over the players of the future so the billionaire owners can save a few bucks.  They should all be ashamed of themselves.  

Don't forget the plethora of stupid rules he's implemented thus changing the sport

What a Clown

15 hours ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Don't forget the plethora of stupid rules he's implemented thus changing the sport

What a Clown

John, can you list a few of them, please?  I'm not disagreeing with you, I just want to see them.

Don't like the draft changes but which manfred rules are bad?

Instant replay?

Catcher collisions banned?

DP Brake up slide banned?

Second wildcard?

No pitch IBB?

3 batter minimum?

26th roster spot?

Pitch clock?

I like most of those rules. Manfred is a puppet of the owners and I'm not a big fan but I don't hate most of the actual rule changes of his era so far. Jury is still out on the changes he likely will be like international draft or robot ump but I don't think those will be bad either.

12 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Don't like the draft changes but which manfred rules are bad?

Instant replay?

Catcher collisions banned?

DP Brake up slide banned?

Second wildcard?

No pitch IBB?

3 batter minimum?

26th roster spot?

Pitch clock?

I like most of those rules. Manfred is a puppet of the owners and I'm not a big fan but I don't hate most of the actual rule changes of his era so far. Jury is still out on the changes he likely will be like international draft or robot ump but I don't think those will be bad either.

I liked this rule change.  There was no reason for catchers to be sitting ducks for some no neck base runner trying to impress.  I'll never forget when Sox catcher Jamie ??? got tattooed by Torii Hunter.  Still one of the dirtiest plays I ever saw.  Wonder if somebody here has that on video.