A Realistic Offseason

[ChiSox59]

21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think you're being quite conservative with your salary estimates. 

We're at about $70 million with Abreu assuming Sanchez is non-tendered. $10 million for Gardner bring to $80 million. $20 million each for the others brings to $140 million, and that's without bullpen help. You can get down to $130 if Bumgarner and Grandal and Wheeler are all substantially under $20 million, but then you have no bullpen help and no bench help.

We're at ~$45M assuming Sanchez is non-tendered. Unless you think Abreu is getting $25M per (I don't), its not $70M with Abreu. Probably more like $62-64M range.  Not a HUGE difference, but every dollar counts I guess.  

[ChiSox59]

6 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Hahn, please don't sign Brett Gardner.  This would be worse than signing Yonder a year ago.  There has to be a better solution.

I'd love to hear your other solutions of RF that bat left handed and aren't a liability on defense.

I'll save you some time - none of them are sexy.  We're working with Dickerson, Gardner, Kole Calhoun and Alex Gordon.  Gardner may be the best overall player of the bunch. Assuming a 1 year deal, I don't think he'd be a bad addition if other legitimate signings are made.

I too would prefer someone else, but it would need to come via trade.    

[poppysox]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

I think this is my fault, I was summing up the wrong column in the spreadsheet I made. It’s corrected on the main one now but if he copied it before it would still be summing up 2019 salaries.

Still fun to play with it.

[ron883]

I just don't like the idea of signing a 38 year old to patrol the OF. I know he has a solid year, but father time will get his ass next season or the season after. 

[ron883]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

Father Time also seems to really like to hang out on the South Side over the last decade. I tend to agree with you, I could see a pretty big drop off with Gardner. 

Agreed. I know a lot of that is just bad luck considering other teams have had better luck with aging hitters, but still. We're not talking even low to mid thirties here. This guy is will be 38. Unless he is juicing (which is possible), I don't like our odds. I don't want to sign him just because he is a lefty. Spend that 10m~ elsewhere. 

[BackDoorBreach]

7 minutes ago, ron883 said:

I just don't like the idea of signing a 38 year old to patrol the OF. I know he has a solid year, but father time will get his ass next season or the season after. 

I agree.  There is no reason why we should be signing 38 year olds.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, ron883 said:

Agreed. I know a lot of that is just bad luck considering other teams have had better luck with aging hitters, but still. We're not talking even low to mid thirties here. This guy is will be 38. Unless he is juicing (which is possible), I don't like our odds. I don't want to sign him just because he is a lefty. Spend that 10m~ elsewhere. 

There just aren't many options.  Which is why I keep going back to a trade.

Nimmo would be my #1 choice, but guys like Ramiel Tapia, David Dahl, Gregory Polonco and Nomar Mazara could also be answers,  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

27 minutes ago, ron883 said:

I just don't like the idea of signing a 38 year old to patrol the OF. I know he has a solid year, but father time will get his ass next season or the season after. 

He's 36 now and his birthday is in June so technically we'd be signing a 36 yr old. Now you can stop wondering why I don't say certain things to you like I said to Bmags along with your Abreu agenda and not knowing how well Colome did this year. Informed people get praised. Meatballs are for spaghetti.

Edited October 16, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

I just don't like it. I know he bats LH, but that can't be the only reason to give a 37 year old a bunch of cash. 

Since 2015, his OPS has been:

.742

.713

.778

.690

.829

Now, I know power isn't really his game, but people are asking for him to play RF, correct? A position where he hasn't played a game since 2014. Even removing that from the equation, are you paying for his past production, or what he is going to provide to the White Sox? Because at 37, why should we think he's going to continue to produce at the level he did in 2019? We've all seen this story before, I really want the Sox to aim higher, or at least younger. 

Yeah, We just got burned for this with Jay, but I do like how Gardner gets on base. This team also needs a better mix of guys who can take a walk while not striking out 30% of time.

But, at his age you never know when contact will crater so much it won’t matter. 
 

I still like him though, if next year is going well but Gardner isn’t, low cost trades would be available. As long as we are looking at stop gaps he is a one I like. 

[ChiSox59]

Hahn likes to made trades.  RF is the natural place for a trade.  I expect that is where we'll get our RF.  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

21 minutes ago, Tony said:

I just don't like it. I know he bats LH, but that can't be the only reason to give a 37 year old a bunch of cash. 

Since 2015, his OPS has been:

.742

.713

.778

.690

.829

Now, I know power isn't really his game, but people are asking for him to play RF, correct? A position where he hasn't played a game since 2014. Even removing that from the equation, are you paying for his past production, or what he is going to provide to the White Sox? Because at 37, why should we think he's going to continue to produce at the level he did in 2019? We've all seen this story before, I really want the Sox to aim higher, or at least younger. 

I don't think anyone is writing his name in stone there are tons or ways to go with none of the free agents ideal candidates be it handedness, age, defense, multiple years in the contract , too much money when other positions might be priorities or giving up assets in a trade.. I'm constantly bouncing around on RF from Dickerson , Gardner, Puig, Nimmo ,JBJ to scanning the upper minors for someone who seems ready who is a decent 2 way player like some of the A's minor league OF's.

Can't rule out Avi either .

Edited October 16, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Bob Sacamano]

I don't see Gardner leaving the Yanks. One would say they have no room for him but the same could also be said last offseason.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Just now, Tony said:

As a fan, this is what we do and there is no reason we shouldn't having these discussions about Gardner or anyone else. I totally get why people are talking about him as an option. I, and others have a different opinion. All good. 

Totally agree as long as people get the info right which you did and others did not because then one person says he's 38 then another etc. which makes it seem like they have an agenda . I did edit the post you quoted to even include Avi as a choice. As far as choices go he's still youngish, has decent pop plays adequate defense based on speed and arm but we are all well aware his doesn't stay healthy and isn't an OBP guy and  many would contradict that I say he's decent on D by saying he sucks on D.

[ron883]

4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Totally agree as long as people get the info right which you did and others did not because then one person says he's 38 then another etc. which makes it seem like they have an agenda . I did edit the post you quoted to even include Avi as a choice. As far as choices go he's still youngish, has decent pop plays adequate defense based on speed and arm but we are all well aware his doesn't stay healthy and isn't an OBP guy and  many would contradict that I say he's decent on D by saying he sucks on D.

Lol dude I was a year off. He will be 37 the majority of next season, not 38. I checked bbref and was mistaken initially. I have no agenda regarding Brett freaking Gardner

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

We're at ~$45M assuming Sanchez is non-tendered. Unless you think Abreu is getting $25M per (I don't), its not $70M with Abreu. Probably more like $62-64M range.  Not a HUGE difference, but every dollar counts I guess.  

The difference between $62 million and $70 million is the number of minimum salary guys that fill out the 26 person roster. 10-15 of them and they add up, so when you count those, $70 million is a reasonable starting point, $75 if Yolmer is retained.

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

The difference between $62 million and $70 million is the number of minimum salary guys that fill out the 26 person roster. 10-15 of them and they add up, so when you count those, $70 million is a reasonable starting point, $75 if Yolmer is retained.

Gotcha, makes sense.  Just looking at it slightly differently.  

[poppysox]

48 minutes ago, Tony said:

Father Time also seems to really like to hang out on the South Side over the last decade. I tend to agree with you, I could see a pretty big drop off with Gardner. 

His age is why he might be available for modest money and short term contract.  Most of us willing to consider him like giving our young guys a chance to grow into a role.  Lots of ways to go in RF.  This is only one of them.  None of us really have a clue what RH has for a working budget.  In order to get the quality pitching we need I'm willing to cut corners in RF if necessary.  I want Grandal or Martinez at DH and decent starters so RF is where I'm willing to be thrifty.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

45 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Lol dude I was a year off. He will be 37 the majority of next season, not 38. I checked bbref and was mistaken initially. I have no agenda regarding Brett freaking Gardner

No you were 2 years off since you said "signing a 38 year old" and since his birthday is in June accuracy says we'd be "signing" a 36 yr old since he would sign between November and March. And by agenda the older you say he is the more that makes your post appear like its an outlandish idea to sign someone that old . That's all the agenda you need to give inaccurate info .

Edited October 16, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

33 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Gotcha, makes sense.  Just looking at it slightly differently.  

Thxfrthhmmrs was the one who came up with $70M and I've been repeating it since I trust him. Just depends on who the Sox non tender and what Abreu gets.

[poppysox]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I don't think anyone is writing his name in stone there are tons or ways to go with none of the free agents ideal candidates be it handedness, age, defense, multiple years in the contract , too much money when other positions might be priorities or giving up assets in a trade.. I'm constantly bouncing around on RF from Dickerson , Gardner, Puig, Nimmo ,JBJ to scanning the upper minors for someone who seems ready who is a decent 2 way player like some of the A's minor league OF's.

Can't rule out Avi either .

If Leury Garcia or Adam Eaton played for someone else we would probably be talking about them as possible RF candidates.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, poppysox said:

If Leury Garcia or Adam Eaton played for someone else we would probably be talking about them as possible RF candidates.

Not Leury . Corner OF's need to have at least good chance for 20+ HR's and a .750+ OPS which is why I said Avisail Garcia and have said Dickerson, Gardner, Puig Nimmo, JBJ. Ideally at least a .325 OBP too. Since we thinking just for one year, figure out who has the best chance for those numbers while playing average defense. In the case of Nimmo I'd take the 3 years before free agency on the hopes he can be the kind of player he was in 2018 depending on who the Mets want in return for him.

[BamaDoc]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

I just don't like it. I know he bats LH, but that can't be the only reason to give a 37 year old a bunch of cash. 

Since 2015, his OPS has been:

.742

.713

.778

.690

.829

Now, I know power isn't really his game, but people are asking for him to play RF, correct? A position where he hasn't played a game since 2014. Even removing that from the equation, are you paying for his past production, or what he is going to provide to the White Sox? Because at 37, why should we think he's going to continue to produce at the level he did in 2019? We've all seen this story before, I really want the Sox to aim higher, or at least younger. 

I started this thread and if you look, Gardner was a complementary signing to Grandal.  If you get a primary bat addition, Grandal in my case, Gardner would hit lower in my lineup to balance handedness and our poor OBP.  I agree if RF is your only big bat signing you want more but I don't see it out there this year.  If he were younger, he probably wouldn't be on a Yankee roster bubble and may not be.  Hell he is batting three for them in the playoffs.  His four WAR this year would be third on our team, ahead of everyone but Giolitto and Moncada.  The game is not only played with a bat but you also do many other things, which he does better than most options.  Since 2015, his WARs are 3.9, 3.2, 3.4, 4.9, 2.8, 4.0    OBP of .327, .343, .351, .350, .322 .325    Father time will get all but with this track record is a WAR of 2.5 unreasonable to expect?

For comparison  Mazzara has NO seasons with over 1WAR.  Nimmo ONE season over 1 WAR. Dickerson 1 season over 2.5 WAR since 2015.  Mazzara and Nimmo you have to trade for so you are giving up prospects/players who unless they are scrap I don't wish to do.  We need a lot to go right to just contend and I felt Gardner was one of the safest bets out there.  It may not mater as the Yankees probably realize his value even as a fourth outfielder for them.

Edited October 16, 2019 by BamaDoc
punctuation

[thxfrthmmrs]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

I think this is my fault, I was summing up the wrong column in the spreadsheet I made. It’s corrected on the main one now but if he copied it before it would still be summing up 2019 salaries.

I think you'd also have to factor in the pre-arb cost, which is probably around $8M for 10-11 players

Committed Salary $15.3M (3 players) + Arb cost $25M (5 players) + Abreu ~$15M + pre-arb cost $8M (10-11 players)

That gets us around $68M for 19-20 players, and leaves us ~60M for 6-7 players in FA.

BTW pre-arb guys I have as likely 2020 players: Moncada, Gio, Lopez, Kopech, Cease, Collins, Mendick, Fry, Bummer.

[thxfrthmmrs]

4 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I prefer Grandal to Martinez for a few reasons.

1. Sox really need lefty bats.  I also worry that the Sox would overplay Martinez in the OF.

2. 1B/DH gets super crowded with Martinez and Abreu.  I suspect JDM would get at minimum a 3 year deal, likely more, and with the Sox apparently planning to keep Abreu around for at least a few more seasons, it gets difficult to find Vaughn at bats .  I do think Vaughn will be ready by 2021 at the latest, so I am not exactly in a hurry to block him.

3. I suspect the McCann we saw in the 2nd half is the McCann we'll get in 2020.  He's still a solid major leaguer, but we need to not overexpose him.  A three-headed catcher DH combo of Grandal/Collins/McCann makes a ton of sense.  Grandal can also play 1B and put Abreu at DH at times.

4. I don't think the Sox are going to relegate Collins to a backup catcher at this point in his career.  They're going to want to DH him at least a couple times a week against RHP, and that is tough to do regularly without a third catcher on the roster.  

All that said, I wouldn't be against JDM + Grandal instead of Abreu + Grandal, but I doubt we see that happen.  

Which is why I said signing Grandal isn't necessarily disappointing vs. signing a big name like JDM. I think Grandal is a better fit all things considered.

[turnin' two]

I saw at least one article that said the Cards may not want Ozuna back because of his defensive liabilities.  Continuing to look at our friends in St. Louis, Jose Martinez may be a decent DH target if all else fails.