The goal is to add elite players onto our elite core, not "balance it out" more effectively.

2 hours ago, Flash said:

I don't disagree. I think a package headed by Steiver might turn it and despite his late season struggles, he would be a nice addition to the rotation.

Why are we trading assets for 1 year if Lynn when we can just sign a guy like Stroman to a likely reasonable contact. 

3 hours ago, SCCWS said:

I would question what prospects  you are including especially since Reylo's value may be limited after this year. The Sox top 5 prospects are Vaughn -Kopech-Madrigal -Crochet and Dunning.  I love Lynn but he is going to require at least 1 top 5 ( and you must be keeping Vaughn) unless Eloy could be included. I don't think Kopech ( health questions and Crochet ( talent ) are available so the Top 5 is dwindling. Maybe Cease,  Dunning,  Eloy + would be feasible

Let me get his number. Must be good. 

2 hours ago, iWiN4PreP said:

I love using stats in the way you did here but with all due respect it just doesn't make sense when you talk about a guy like Bauer.

Bauer has proven that he has another level, a level of being the best in the league. He's done so on multiple occasions now. His worst enemy seems to be he tinkers himself out of it.

Stroman has very little potential left. He's a serviceable arm, but signing him you hope/expect for him to make it through the year with a 3.7ish era. Gaussman has some potential, but hasn't realized it yet.

 

Bauer strikes out more and markets himself more, but from straight performance Storman and Gausman have performed more consistently and Stroman has actually out performed Bauer on a more consistent basis (FIP).

I like Stroman more because he is a GB pitcher, career 58% vs 41% for Bauer.  Gausman is the least popular one and one whose FIP is trending in the right direction. Gausman could result in similar performance as the other two but cost less, which shouldn't be but is a factor.

Savant likes all three, but Stroman is best at weak contact, which to me is a more sustainable approach.

2 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

It's insanely unreasonable when you look at their careers instead of a 60 game season. It's laughable. 4 years of control for a pitcher who had one great year for 8 years of control of a (most league agrees) soon to be top bat

Careers? Eloy? Burnes is 25 yrs. old. You might check Baseball Trade Values which includes a host of inputs/variables such as contract, etc. (hint...Burnes is more highly valued). 

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Why are we trading assets for 1 year if Lynn when we can just sign a guy like Stroman to a likely reasonable contact. 

Burnes > Stromen.

53 minutes ago, Flash said:

Burnes > Stromen.

It’s Stroman. And I agree. I was responding to post about trading several assets for Lance Lynn.

Burnes is great. But I’m not trading Eloy to get him as has been discussed here. 

Yes....sorry. I inadvertantly responded to wrong text. Agreed.

2 minutes ago, Flash said:

Yes....sorry. I inadvertantly responded to wrong text. Agreed.

IMO, signing Stroman to a 3/$50M and Q to 1/$8M type deal is so so so so much better than trading our valuable assets for SP.

Then we can dangle Cease/Steiver/and some lesser assets for a good RF that is a good fit. 

Burnes would likely take 1 of Vaughn/Eloy/Kopech, plus one (except for maybe Eloy by himself) of Dunning/Madrigal/Cease.  No thanks to any combination of that.  

23 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

IMO, signing Stroman to a 3/$50M and Q to 1/$8M type deal is so so so so much better than trading our valuable assets for SP.

Then we can dangle Cease/Steiver/and some lesser assets for a good RF that is a good fit. 

Burnes would likely take 1 of Vaughn/Eloy/Kopech, plus one (except for maybe Eloy by himself) of Dunning/Madrigal/Cease.  No thanks to any combination of that.  

Yeah absolutely not.  I wouldn't trade any of those first 3 straight up.

22 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

IMO, signing Stroman to a 3/$50M and Q to 1/$8M type deal is so so so so much better than trading our valuable assets for SP.

Then we can dangle Cease/Steiver/and some lesser assets for a good RF that is a good fit. 

Burnes would likely take 1 of Vaughn/Eloy/Kopech, plus one (except for maybe Eloy by himself) of Dunning/Madrigal/Cease.  No thanks to any combination of that.  

Stroman will get close to Wheeler dollars, or at least he should. The only thing that would suppress that would be budget constraints from covid.

Wheeler had 750ip and 12.5 WAR heading into free agency.  Stroman has 849 IP and 15.8 WAR.

7 minutes ago, striker said:

Stroman will get close to Wheeler dollars, or at least he should. The only thing that would suppress that would be budget constraints from covid.

Wheeler had 750ip and 12.5 WAR heading into free agency.  Stroman has 849 IP and 15.8 WAR.

I’ll take the under. By a lot. 

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I’ll take the under. By a lot. 

How hard does Stroman throw?

26 minutes ago, striker said:

Stroman will get close to Wheeler dollars, or at least he should. The only thing that would suppress that would be budget constraints from covid.

Wheeler had 750ip and 12.5 WAR heading into free agency.  Stroman has 849 IP and 15.8 WAR.

Career WAR isn’t the only thing free agents are evaluated on.  The fact that Stroman has a lower ceiling and is coming off a missed season will suppress his value and that’s before COVID.

45 minutes ago, striker said:

Stroman will get close to Wheeler dollars, or at least he should. The only thing that would suppress that would be budget constraints from covid.

Wheeler had 750ip and 12.5 WAR heading into free agency.  Stroman has 849 IP and 15.8 WAR.

Wheeler is and was far more projectible.. They will not be close.  Stroman will be half.. I predict 3/50-60

Edited October 15, 20205 yr by Squirmin' for Yermin

I kind of want to get Paxton IF we cannot get Bauer... The highest ceiling in the FA class outside Bauer and is a lefty.

1 minute ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I kind of want to get Paxton IF we cannot get Bauer... The highest ceiling in the FA class outside Bauer and is a lefty.

His best days are behind him and he's constantly injured now. No thanks.

14 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

His best days are behind him and he's constantly injured now. No thanks.

100% agree he is always hurt.  My goal would be to get 20-25 starts out of him.  If you take this year out (short weird year), his career FIP is in the low 3.00s.. I would certainly take a gamble on that, even if he regresses to the upper 3's, there's still value there and he'd without a doubt be one of our top 3 (maybe 2 if healthy).

I haven't read all 23 pages, so I'm sorry if I'm posting something that has already been said. It would be silly to trade off any decent prospect right now, with the cap space that we currently have for the next 3-4 years. We will be roughly at 100M in 2021 and 85M in 2022. That is plenty of room to spend at least 40M in each of those 2 years at minimum for Free Agents, and also room to sign Giolito to an extension as well, with the first few years of his extension at a reduced rate. Though I would argue to front load him a bit so that it leaves room for extensions for the hitters in 5-6 years when we want to re-lock up Eloy/Moncada/TA.

My plan would be the following:  (in a perfect world)

1: Starting Pitching:

Bauer at 2/$45M, if he has a better offer or goes elsewhere

Stroman at 1/$15M - give him a rebound chance and if you lose out on Bauer, I think you need a 2nd SP with Stroman so...

Robbie Ray at 1/$12M - he has a bit of experience now out of the bullpen for Toronto, so worse case he's a bullpen guy that helps in the rotation if there is an injury

2: Outfield depth

Springer at 2/$40M - he can play LF, CF, RF if he's not willing to sign a short term deal move on to...

Joc Pederson at 1/$15 - he can also play all 3 OF positions, probably only plays vs RHP but that's 70% of the games anyways

I would still keep Mazara, and use a 4 man rotation in the OF. Mainly Eloy, Robert, Springer in the OF with Mazara at DH against RHP.

I would have Vaughn up in the bigs after his service time passes in April and he can also rotate through the DH spot (against LHP) and play a little 1B. We could give Eloy some time at DH and have Springer play LF, Robert CF, Mazara RF. This gives us a ton of flexibility in our line up to keep guys fresh. Having Springer being able to give Robert a day off every few weeks would be a huge help, same with Eloy. Plus it would strengthen our bench by having 1 of Mazara, Vaughn almost always able to PH off the bench. 

3: Bullpen depth

Brandon Workman - 1/$2M

Trevor May - 1/$1M

4: Catcher back up

James McCann - 2/$15 - if he wants to be a starter, that's understandable but at least give him the option. at 32 he can still get a decent contract after he wins 2 WS with the Sox

if McCann says he wants to start elsewhere go to...

Tyler Flowers - 1/$3 - he's a great defensive C and won't hurt our pitchers at all

 

That's what my offseason plan would look like. If everything goes right you spend $52.5M in 2021 and still have $47.5 on books in 2022. Still well under a $150M yearly salary. Our target after making the playoffs in 2020, 2021, 2022 should be at least $175M payroll going forward until our window looks to be closing. 

 

 

6 minutes ago, TheCommish said:

I haven't read all 23 pages, so I'm sorry if I'm posting something that has already been said. It would be silly to trade off any decent prospect right now, with the cap space that we currently have for the next 3-4 years. We will be roughly at 100M in 2021 and 85M in 2022. That is plenty of room to spend at least 40M in each of those 2 years at minimum for Free Agents, and also room to sign Giolito to an extension as well, with the first few years of his extension at a reduced rate. Though I would argue to front load him a bit so that it leaves room for extensions for the hitters in 5-6 years when we want to re-lock up Eloy/Moncada/TA.

My plan would be the following:  (in a perfect world)

1: Starting Pitching:

Bauer at 2/$45M, if he has a better offer or goes elsewhere

Stroman at 1/$15M - give him a rebound chance and if you lose out on Bauer, I think you need a 2nd SP with Stroman so...

Robbie Ray at 1/$12M - he has a bit of experience now out of the bullpen for Toronto, so worse case he's a bullpen guy that helps in the rotation if there is an injury

2: Outfield depth

Springer at 2/$40M - he can play LF, CF, RF if he's not willing to sign a short term deal move on to...

Joc Pederson at 1/$15 - he can also play all 3 OF positions, probably only plays vs RHP but that's 70% of the games anyways

I would still keep Mazara, and use a 4 man rotation in the OF. Mainly Eloy, Robert, Springer in the OF with Mazara at DH against RHP.

I would have Vaughn up in the bigs after his service time passes in April and he can also rotate through the DH spot (against LHP) and play a little 1B. We could give Eloy some time at DH and have Springer play LF, Robert CF, Mazara RF. This gives us a ton of flexibility in our line up to keep guys fresh. Having Springer being able to give Robert a day off every few weeks would be a huge help, same with Eloy. Plus it would strengthen our bench by having 1 of Mazara, Vaughn almost always able to PH off the bench. 

3: Bullpen depth

Brandon Workman - 1/$2M

Trevor May - 1/$1M

4: Catcher back up

James McCann - 2/$15 - if he wants to be a starter, that's understandable but at least give him the option. at 32 he can still get a decent contract after he wins 2 WS with the Sox

if McCann says he wants to start elsewhere go to...

Tyler Flowers - 1/$3 - he's a great defensive C and won't hurt our pitchers at all

 

That's what my offseason plan would look like. If everything goes right you spend $52.5M in 2021 and still have $47.5 on books in 2022. Still well under a $150M yearly salary. Our target after making the playoffs in 2020, 2021, 2022 should be at least $175M payroll going forward until our window looks to be closing. 

 

 

I'm not sure you sign a single guy to one of those contracts honestly..... Literally..

Also, why only short term deals?

I like Joc but I'm thinking big. Would really love to acquire Ozuna or Brantley and make it a big offseason. 

3 minutes ago, KonerkoFan1 said:

I like Joc but I'm thinking big. Would really love to acquire Ozuna or Brantley and make it a big offseason. 

i THINK I would rather have Joc on a 2 year deal or something than Brantley on 1.  Honestly his defenses scares the bajesus out of me.. I'd hate to have another bad OF in the corner.

24 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I'm not sure you sign a single guy to one of those contracts honestly..... Literally..

Also, why only short term deals?

Players will strike if salaries are that low 

5 hours ago, striker said:

Bauer strikes out more and markets himself more, but from straight performance Storman and Gausman have performed more consistently and Stroman has actually out performed Bauer on a more consistent basis (FIP).

I like Stroman more because he is a GB pitcher, career 58% vs 41% for Bauer.  Gausman is the least popular one and one whose FIP is trending in the right direction. Gausman could result in similar performance as the other two but cost less, which shouldn't be but is a factor.

Savant likes all three, but Stroman is best at weak contact, which to me is a more sustainable approach.

I appreciate your work here... you’ve moved me in a more optimistic position on stroman and gaussman. Im a bit reluctant to concede on the matter based on just a few statistics, but you’ve given me a seed to think about on these two guys with a solid argument. Cheers

2 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

i THINK I would rather have Joc on a 2 year deal or something than Brantley on 1.  Honestly his defenses scares the bajesus out of me.. I'd hate to have another bad OF in the corner.

Well, sure. But why would we be aiming for a 1 year deal?