44 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Lol at Madrigal and Cease being top 50 prospects. People are trying to dump them because they’ve lost or never had confidence in them.

Lol...who is trying to dumb Madrigal other than Harold & fathom?  Fangraphs has him ranked 35th, MLBpipeline has him ranked 36th, & Baseball America has him 43rd.  But I guess they missed those handful of fielding & base-running gaffes during his first major league season that suddenly erodes all his prospect value.  And let’s ignore that .340 BA he put up that corresponded with an xBA of nearly .340.

And I could give two shits that fans want to dump Cease for struggling during a bizarre pandemic fueled season and despite having less than a full season worth of starts.  I’d wager large sums of money his value has diminished all that much and that almost every organization in baseball would love to get his hands on him and tap into his massive potential.  Guys literally don’t go from the 25th prospect in baseball (where he capped out at with the major publications) to losing all their value over a poor 26 starts without an major injury or a complete loss of stuff.  He has obviously lost some value, but professional front offices are way more patient than the common message board fan.  Using Soxtalk as a point of reference for Cease’s value is laughable.

33 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

If you go to their BP minor league page they will tell you if they were top 100 in BA, MLB and BP. They both were pre 2020. In fact, they both were top 26 guys for BP coming into this past 60 game season. 

Look, I’ll be the first to admit that these prospect publications aren’t always synced up with how front offices view guys, but they are way better than going by gut or using Soxtalk as a proxy like Balta is doing.

Trade value is hard. I think surplus value is useless, and would really stress that there are more trades that have happened than just ones sox have executed. 
 

But yeah, if you are going to criticize others for not understanding value, get the value correct yourself.

Im loathe to trade Vaughn. But if you decide Snell is that piece, I do think the rays listen. Him and Franco will add a really nice offensive profile to that team that needed more runs, and they have been so successful getting pitching performance.

Marquez I’m just not interested in. The talent premium you are paying is for cost and control and that’s not a sox need right now. Snell it’s an added benefit, but main thing is he is a top pitcher you can’t get otherwise.

But it isn’t happening and I think next few years there will be an opportunity for an ace at a reasonable cost. They need to be patient and scout well for productive depth until then.

 

8 hours ago, Yearnin' for Yermin said:

Q put up 4.9, 4.3, and 4.9 fWAR in the seasons leading up to that trade. Marquez has 1 season above 4, with a 4.1 fWAR two seasons ago. 

Cease was in A and Eloy was in A+ during those trades. They weren't close to being MLB ready. I would bet that Vaughn and Kopech together put up a similar WAR total to Marquez NEXT season, even with service time gaming. 

You're doing our prospects dirty, Balta. Hahn should get tarred and feathered if he trades Vaughn and Kopech for Marquez

quite literally your argument here is “Marquez’s 2020 numbers don’t count so we should get a discount on him”. Again, maybe that works for Colorado, but come on.

If this offseason winds up being Musgrove, Quintana, Pederson and a closer, would everyone be satisfied? 

51 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Look, I’ll be the first to admit that these prospect publications aren’t always synced up with how front offices view guys, but they are way better than going by gut or using Soxtalk as a proxy like Balta is doing.

I have 3 different posts above where I give ranking numbers and that somehow wasn’t good enough for you. 

But at least it’s clear why this won’t happen, because you folks demand a massive discount from Tampa Bay but aren’t prepared to admit that’s what you’re asking for.

10 minutes ago, bear_brian said:

If this offseason winds up being Musgrove, Quintana, Pederson and a closer, would everyone be satisfied? 

Very much. Though I’m really on the fence on whether we need to get a closer, vs filling out bullpen.

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I have 3 different posts above where I give ranking numbers and that somehow wasn’t good enough for you. 

But at least it’s clear why this won’t happen, because you folks demand a massive discount from Tampa Bay but aren’t prepared to admit that’s what you’re asking for.

Yep. Let's not use independent player rankings, zips, surplus value or likely competitive bidding for determining relative trade value when proposing trades. Instead, let's just go with our subjective viewpoints on what other teams should accept from us for their premiere talent.   

4 minutes ago, Flash said:

Yep. Let's not use independent player rankings, zips, surplus value or likely competitive bidding for determining relative trade value when proposing trades. Instead, let's just go with our subjective viewpoints on what other teams should accept from us for their premiere talent.   

Brutal own of balta

Wasn't aimed at Balta...it was in support of his comment on how this board ignores independent and objective information when proposing or nixing hypothetical trades. 

1 hour ago, bear_brian said:

If this offseason winds up being Musgrove, Quintana, Pederson and a closer, would everyone be satisfied? 

Dunno about "satisfied," but I think this sort of offseason is what is likely to occur.

I think Bauer and Springer are pipedreams; I think the offseason as you describe, coupled with average team health, average on field management, and a reasonable degree of progress from the extant roster should lead to the postseason in 2021.

1 hour ago, bear_brian said:

If this offseason winds up being Musgrove, Quintana, Pederson and a closer, would everyone be satisfied? 

I'd be fine with it. Along with improved coaching and development of current roster this is a playoff team. 

14 minutes ago, Capital G said:

I'd be fine with it. Along with improved coaching and development of current roster this is a playoff team. 

We are already a playoff team constructed. The window is open now to win championships. 

Edited November 22, 20205 yr by maloney.adam

1 hour ago, bear_brian said:

If this offseason winds up being Musgrove, Quintana, Pederson and a closer, would everyone be satisfied? 

It would depend on what was given up for Musgrove. Would personally prefer Bradley Jr for his defense / ability to play CF as needed. Quintana the only FA in this class less likely to come with Cooper gone.

I don't see the White Sox signing any top tier FAs, perhaps Colome and a SP and/or RF at a Collusion 4.0 / COVID market discount. Jerry is more concerned with COVID and crushing the Players Union / CBA than winning anything.. An additional component is whether fans can even attend, or if the owners I planning to knock off 80-100 games off the schedule once again. 

I don't pay attention to what Portillo's, Al's Beef, SuperDawg, Maxwell Street Polish, Au Cheval, Mr. Beef, Tastee-Freez, Maxwell Street Polish, Red Hot Ranch or Wiener Circle are tweeting.

.

Edited November 22, 20205 yr by South Side Hit Men

4 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

I don't pay attention to what Portillo's, Al's Beef, SuperDawg, Maxwell Street Polish, Au Chevall, Tastee-Freez, Maxwell Street Polish, Red Hot Ranch or Wiener Circle are tweeting.

.

How on earth could you possibly know who we are targeting, how much we will pay, contract values, length of contracts, cash contributions and timing if you don't tune in to this knowlegeable group who are all obviously connected to and in the room with Hahn during these discussions ?  

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I have 3 different posts above where I give ranking numbers and that somehow wasn’t good enough for you. 

But at least it’s clear why this won’t happen, because you folks demand a massive discount from Tampa Bay but aren’t prepared to admit that’s what you’re asking for.

The rankings you gave were also incorrect. The prospect rank you gave for Dylan Cease was fake news

Edited November 22, 20205 yr by Yearnin' for Yermin

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Lol at Madrigal and Cease being top 50 prospects. People are trying to dump them because they’ve lost or never had confidence in them.

How do you not factor MLB readiness into your evaluation? To me, a SP with a 3 starter ceiling performing well at AAA or MLB is WAY more valuable than a SP with an ace ceiling in A ball. The only exception would be if you're actively in a rebuild.

As recently as 2.5 years ago, talent evaluators would've said Shane Bieber's ceiling was a 3 starter, despite him doing nothing but perform at every level. If in the beginning of 2018, someone had suggested Bieber for Kopech 1 for 1, most of this board would've lost their minds. In retrospect, however, it would've been one of the shrewdest moves the team could've made. The point being closeness to MLB ready must be and is a factor in any team's valuation of a player. It takes a lot less ceiling at AAA to get a MLB player than it does if the player is at A or A+.

2 hours ago, Flash said:

Wasn't aimed at Balta...it was in support of his comment on how this board ignores independent and objective information when proposing or nixing hypothetical trades. 

Please remember there are many that just read posts without commenting to just get viewpoints like yours. I am always interested in learning about how a GM may look at value. There would be a lot more trades if there wasn't disagreement over value so don't get discouraged that people argue with you using their own value.  I suppose that 's how 2 GM's go at it when discussing a trade.

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I have 3 different posts above where I give ranking numbers and that somehow wasn’t good enough for you. 

But at least it’s clear why this won’t happen, because you folks demand a massive discount from Tampa Bay but aren’t prepared to admit that’s what you’re asking for.

What posts are you referring to?  You said Madrigal & Cease weren’t top 50 prospects and Madrigal currently is across all major publications and Cease was prior to losing his eligibility.  You thinking Vaughn, Kopech, Cease, & Madrigal is somehow fair value for Snell is one of the most insane things I have seen posted on this board.

3 hours ago, Flash said:

Wasn't aimed at Balta...it was in support of his comment on how this board ignores independent and objective information when proposing or nixing hypothetical trades. 

What objective information has Balta provided that has been ignored?  Since, you’re looking for “objective” info and consistently reference surplus value, here’s how baseballtradevalues would evaluate Balta’s trade:

 

3 hours ago, bear_brian said:

If this offseason winds up being Musgrove, Quintana, Pederson and a closer, would everyone be satisfied? 

Id be good but would swap pederson with a rf who isn’t platoon only

3 hours ago, bear_brian said:

If this offseason winds up being Musgrove, Quintana, Pederson and a closer, would everyone be satisfied? 

I don't know about everyone, but depending on the closer and the payout for Musgrove, that would be fine by me.

7 minutes ago, iWiN4PreP said:

Id be good but would swap pederson with a rf who isn’t platoon only

Name that RF, please.

Just now, Dam8610 said:

Name that RF, please.

No reason for this to be a serious question.

If we want a left-handed hitting RF who can play defense, then Pederson, JBJ and Grossman become the FA alternatives, at least as far as I know.