"Before we proceed further, a short philosophical note. I hate it when people use phrases — to be fair, we often use phrases like these ourselves! — such as “Nate Silver is giving Biden a 90 percent chance” or “FiveThirtyEight still gives Trump a 10 percent chance.” We aren’t giving anybody anything. Instead, as former FiveThirtyEight politics host Jody Avrigan puts it, what we’re doing is “mapping uncertainty.” In other words, if Biden leads by about 9 points in national polls, 8 points in Wisconsin, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 2 points in Florida, etc., how does that translate into a probability of victory? That’s what our model is trying to figure out."

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/

 

42 minutes ago, The Beast said:

How do you address what happened on the Texas and New Jersey highways?

I have been very busy today and not studied the issue but I think the story is Trump zealots blocked the highways? I'm TOTALLY against that behavior if that's what occurred. Totally against it. I also as a hobby have followed Portland nightly all summer into the fall. And they march/riot every single night, totally turning downtown into a ghosttown. Businesses have fled. Now not every night do they start fires and smash at least a few windows, but most definitey 3/4s of the nights. I know; my own eyes tell me. I don't need second hand accounts; the streamers are pretty entertaining as a matter of fact.

I am AGAINST all destruction of business and/or the flow of traffic on highways and it breaks my heart downtown Chicago has been affected. I am a law and order guy 100 percent. If Trumpies blocked the highways, I want them arrested just like the BLM protestors who do the same.

Edited November 2, 20205 yr by greg775

What a surprise,  he brought the scary black people into it.

If qAnon is perceived by the 70% in the center to be the antithesis but moral equivalent of BLM and Antifa, the US is in more trouble than I previously thought. 

"Both sides" brings the country closer and closer to pulling apart at the seams. 

 

But who could be against Trump as a Christ~like symbol or FOR pedophiles? 

Edited November 2, 20205 yr by caulfield12

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

But who could be against Trump as a Christ~like symbol or FOR pedophiles? 

This concerns me. There's a proposal I read that will, if passed, eliminate all prisons in the USA and let everybody free because of inequities in the court system in the past. A proposal is to have no more arrests, no prisons, at least that's something I read coming out of Colin K's camp. This concerns me because some people in prison have kidnapped and abused KIDS. Can't let those people out of prison, folks. And we must continue to put such offenders away. Should be interesting how far we go with some of the proposals in the future to correct wrongdoings of the past. I am ALL for the protection of kids. They remain the most special thing about the world, innocent kids.     https://www.cbsnews.com/news/colin-kaepernick-abolish-police-prisons-essay-medium-2020-10-08/

Edited November 2, 20205 yr by greg775

10 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

I’m kind of annoyed everyone is saying the polls are what they are and that Biden is going to win. Worry people aren’t going to vote and next thing you know everyone is in shock and it’s another 4 years.

I think (and hope) that voters learned their lesson in 2016.  The early voting is a good indicator that people are not putting faith in the polls and that "other voters" will do the right thing.

I personally find the scare tactics by the pickup truck caravan in Texas on the Biden bus to be of very poor taste.

It  was bullying and intimidation tactics that harken back to the racist lynch mobs of the Jim Crow era in the South.

49 minutes ago, knightni said:

I personally find the scare tactics by the pickup truck caravan in Texas on the Biden bus to be of very poor taste.

It  was bullying and intimidation tactics that harken back to the racist lynch mobs of the Jim Crow era in the South.

I know a lot of Trump supporters, none would ever do something like that. They are as outraged as you and I. 

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

If qAnon is perceived by the 70% in the center to be the antithesis but moral equivalent of BLM and Antifa, the US is in more trouble than I previously thought. 

"Both sides" brings the country closer and closer to pulling apart at the seams. 

 

But who could be against Trump as a Christ~like symbol or FOR pedophiles? 

I’ll mock extremists on both sides, thank you.

11 minutes ago, Texsox said:

I know a lot of Trump supporters, none would ever do something like that. They are as outraged as you and I. 

I agree with you. I want Trump to lose and I want Trumpism as an ideology to go away, but I dislike the attacks on Trump supporters. Most of them (to include many personal friends of mine) are not racist Q fanatics who have parades and try to run campaign busses off the highway.

21 minutes ago, Texsox said:

I know a lot of Trump supporters, none would ever do something like that. They are as outraged as you and I. 

I'm sure that's true.  But could you imagine McCain or Romney supporters doing something like that?  Trump's true base are the ones that do stuff like this.  They're the ones that want to patrol polling places with open carry guns.

Politics is a dirty business, and both sides of the aisle are guilty of doing shady stuff.  But this is truly abhorrent.

58 minutes ago, Texsox said:

I know a lot of Trump supporters, none would ever do something like that. They are as outraged as you and I. 

I would hope at least some Trumps supporters feel that way, and I am glad that you are outraged no matter who you are voting for. But in Trump, we have a power-hungry person who is trying to steal this election. 

1 hour ago, knightni said:

I personally find the scare tactics by the pickup truck caravan in Texas on the Biden bus to be of very poor taste.

It  was bullying and intimidation tactics that harken back to the racist lynch mobs of the Jim Crow era in the South.

Y'all Qaeda strikes again.

Let's remember the folks who supported Bush, Reagan, Romney, McCain, etc are continuing to vote for the Republican candidate.

I'm honoring John McCain and his memorable defense of Obama. There are idiots on both sides of the aisle. Trump is the first successful candidate that fired the fringe up in this way. Let's not judge the mainstream GOP supporter to these people. 

 

What the various aggregator models are predicting as of today for the Presidential race, from 270towin.com

Sabatos Crystal Ball

 

 

Cook Political Report

 

 

Inside Elections

 

 

 

Politico

 

Economist

 

 

538

 

 

And this is the current "2020 Consensus" map that lumps all the aggregator's aggregations together:

 

 

 

 

 

Most aggregators are putting Dems are pretty safely 49 seat floor in the Senate. Will they pick up enough seats to offset their almost guaranteed loss in Alabama to get to 50 or 51?

 

 

 

51 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Y'all Qaeda strikes again.

? Never saw that one before.  I recall Yokel Haram, now what were the others?

4 hours ago, Texsox said:

I know a lot of Trump supporters, none would ever do something like that. They are as outraged as you and I. 

 

3 hours ago, Texsox said:

Let's remember the folks who supported Bush, Reagan, Romney, McCain, etc are continuing to vote for the Republican candidate.

I'm honoring John McCain and his memorable defense of Obama. There are idiots on both sides of the aisle. Trump is the first successful candidate that fired the fringe up in this way. Let's not judge the mainstream GOP supporter to these people. 

 

I hope these actions sway some moderate GOP to see why this cannot go on for another 4 years. I will agree you cant judge supporters by the actions of other supporters. But you can absolutely judge supporters by the actions of the person they voted for.

 

"In my opinion, these patriots did nothing wrong."

- Donald Trump

In a just world, that should be the end of his Presidency. A President should never support violence against a political opponent. If you vote for Trump in 2020, you should be judged accordingly.

3 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

 

 

I hope these actions sway some moderate GOP to see why this cannot go on for another 4 years. I will agree you cant judge supporters by the actions of other supporters. But you can absolutely judge supporters by the actions of the person they voted for.

 

"In my opinion, these patriots did nothing wrong."

- Donald Trump

In a just world, that should be the end of his Presidency. A President should never support violence against a political opponent. If you vote for Trump in 2020, you should be judged accordingly.

This right here.  If you don't support it, then act like it.

5 hours ago, Texsox said:

I know a lot of Trump supporters, none would ever do something like that. They are as outraged as you and I. 

Big problem is the president not condemning it, saying they did nothing wrong, and expressing outrage at the FBI for investigating it.

Biden condemned looting in Portland.

Trump supported it. At this point, supporting Trump is supporting those caravans.

3 hours ago, Texsox said:

Let's remember the folks who supported Bush, Reagan, Romney, McCain, etc are continuing to vote for the Republican candidate.

I'm honoring John McCain and his memorable defense of Obama. There are idiots on both sides of the aisle. Trump is the first successful candidate that fired the fringe up in this way. Let's not judge the mainstream GOP supporter to these people. 

I really appreciate this post.

Try to imagine what progressives would do if the Democrats nominated a reliably left-wing but personally repulsive candidate. Say, Alan Grayson. Would they realize that he’s not fit for the job and give up progressive policy goals to vote for a Mitt Romney?

Some would. Some wouldn’t. I voted for Biden but that’s also because Trump’s ideology doesn’t match mine in many ways. Put up an obnoxious, thrice-divorced neocon (with no conspiracy or racist tendencies) and yeah, I’d vote for them.

15 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

 

 

I hope these actions sway some moderate GOP to see why this cannot go on for another 4 years. I will agree you cant judge supporters by the actions of other supporters. But you can absolutely judge supporters by the actions of the person they voted for.

 

"In my opinion, these patriots did nothing wrong."

- Donald Trump

In a just world, that should be the end of his Presidency. A President should never support violence against a political opponent. If you vote for Trump in 2020, you should be judged accordingly.

Was that quote in regard to the recent Texas incident?

5 minutes ago, Dallas Kong said:

Was that quote in regard to the recent Texas incident?

Yes that was Donald Trump's response. 

(Edit) 

Here is the full response:

 

In my opinion, these patriots did nothing wrong. Instead, the FBI & Justice should be investigating the terrorists, anarchists, and agitators of ANTIFA, who run around burning down our Democrat run cities and hurting our people!

 

Edited November 2, 20205 yr by Soxbadger

7 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

Yes that was Donald Trump's response. 

(Edit) 

Here is the full response:

 

In my opinion, these patriots did nothing wrong. Instead, the FBI & Justice should be investigating the terrorists, anarchists, and agitators of ANTIFA, who run around burning down our Democrat run cities and hurting our people!

 

Ugh.

Anything that isn’t a Biden landslide is going to be a shit show for weeeeeeeeks and even that situation might get people riled up. 
 

hold on to your butts

Edited November 2, 20205 yr by mqr

Things I learned Biden will be getting rid of if elected. You might want to keep this in mind when you go to vote.

Suburbs

Churches

air conditioning

heat

and the ability to watch TV if there is no wind.