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MLB 2021-2 off season thread


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5 minutes ago, fathom said:

Different beat writers or legit blogs over the last few weeks.  More importantly, there hasn’t been much reported that the Sox are interested.

We’re in for a long offseason than. I’m surprised with all the predictions of our payroll to be close to 190-200 million. Who are we in on than? 

Edited by maloney.adam
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10 minutes ago, fathom said:

Different beat writers or legit blogs over the last few weeks.  More importantly, there hasn’t been much reported that the Sox are interested.

Was hoping for a link. I can find a few opinions on it that are speculation and some of them are just using the 1 yr pillow contract as a basis .

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13 minutes ago, maloney.adam said:

We’re in for a long offseason than. I’m surprised with all the predictions of our payroll to be close to 190-200 million. Who are we in on than? 

Starting pitching perhaps but silence from the Sox hardly means we aren't in on Conforto . I can't find anything googling legit interest in him except for Boras blather.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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35 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Starling Marte is 33 years old. I think Conforto gets more than that. 

I think if Conforto was coming off a normal year he would get a lot more.  Unfortunately for him that’s not the case and GMs now have to bake some risk into their valuations.  If you look at Steamer, they have Conforto projected for 2.5 years next year.  I personally think he blows that projection out of the water, but I’m also not the GM and accountable if a major signing goes wrong.  Additionally, front offices are more data driven than ever.  And while I’ve pointed out the flaws of modern day projection models in that they ignore context, the reality is that 0.8 fWAR season will weighted into go forward forecasts to some extent even if they’re obviously aware of the hamstring injury.

Meanwhile, Marte is the one coming off an excellent year (5.5 fWAR), is the best CF on the market (which will certainly garner a premium), and doesn’t have a draft pick attached to him.  Steamer has him at 3.1 wins next year, which already factors in massive regression (rather than massive improvement for Michael).  Even with a standard aging curve, both guys would provide similar value over the next four years.  As such, I’d expect similar deals for both guys, with the factors outlined above for Marte giving a slight edge to Conforto’s youth and upside.  Obviously I trust if you’re hearing something that suggests otherwise.

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I think I agree with CWS. I don’t think the teams rumored in on him are the ones that will let Boras make the market, and Conforto isn’t big enough to anyway. I kinda thought he’d get the Upton 2016 contract but not sure anymore. 
 

I think he definitely gets an opt-out.

But I don’t see Conforto signing anytime soon because of this.

I swear, man, I think the white soxiest thing is definitely signing schwarber and making cute with RF, 2B. But maybe they somehow pull Taylor? 
 

I feel like the odds of a Joc RF are rising.

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21 minutes ago, fathom said:

Different beat writers or legit blogs over the last few weeks.  More importantly, there hasn’t been much reported that the Sox are interested.

How often are the Sox’s actual targets leaked out though?  There was absolutely nothing from the true insiders on Graveman and I’m pretty sure that’s been the case the last few years for almost every major signing.  The Sox like to operate in the shadows and I truly believe if you see someone like Nightengale mention a name (like with Ray & Semien) it’s misdirection.

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13 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Was hoping for a link. I can find a few opinions on it that are speculation and some of them are just using the 1 yr pillow contract as a basis .

If he was a slam dunk to sign a pillow contract, he might as well have just taken the guaranteed $18.3 mill QO and had certainty prior to lock out.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How often are the Sox’s actual targets leaked out though?  There was absolutely nothing from the true insiders on Graveman and I’m pretty sure that’s been the case the last few years for almost every major signing.  The Sox like to operate in the shadows and I truly believe if you see someone like Nightengale mention a name (like with Ray & Semien) it’s misdirection.

I feel like it is pretty often to be honest.

Hendriks, Encarnacion, Wheeler, Keuchel, and to some degree Yaz though it was fast, we were pretty in the know on those.

Eaton, Graveman we’re definitely silent. 

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3 minutes ago, bmags said:

I feel like it is pretty often to be honest.

Hendriks, Encarnacion, Wheeler, Keuchel, and to some degree Yaz though it was fast, we were pretty in the know on those.

Eaton, Graveman we’re definitely silent. 

Encarnacion was leaked, but that was also a unique situation in which he wasn’t able to sign a contract immediately for geographical / personal reasons.  I feel like Wheeler didn’t leak until it was coming down to the wire.  Did Yaz actually leak?  Maybe like 30 minutes before I got PM on it, but that one came out of nowhere.  I don’t remember a ton of stuff on Keuchel, but could be wrong there.  Hendriks was the one where there was a ton of rumors, but right or wrong I attribute that to being a La Russa oriented move.

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23 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How often are the Sox’s actual targets leaked out though?  There was absolutely nothing from the true insiders on Graveman and I’m pretty sure that’s been the case the last few years for almost every major signing.  The Sox like to operate in the shadows and I truly believe if you see someone like Nightengale mention a name (like with Ray & Semien) it’s misdirection.

They were rumored on Hendriks the entire offseason last year. 

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Please no Conforto. The fans who have seen him for his entire career have little good to say about him other than he tries hard and seems like a good guy. Complaints such as: he is prone to long slumps that coincide with Mets losing streaks; he has potential but hasn't reached it; his lack of power; and that he won't be worth the money some sucker team is likely to give him. They say they can't believe they can get a pick for him as well. That doesn't seem like the key posiition player acquisition I'd want the Sox to add.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/michael-conforto-to-reject-qualifying-offer.html [ Check out the comments section].

https://risingapple.com/2021/10/10/ny-mets-michael-conforto-devils-advocate/ 

Edited by beck72
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9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Encarnacion was leaked, but that was also a unique situation in which he wasn’t able to sign a contract immediately for geographical / personal reasons.  I feel like Wheeler didn’t leak until it was coming down to the wire.  Did Yaz actually leak?  Maybe like 30 minutes before I got PM on it, but that one came out of nowhere.  I don’t remember a ton of stuff on Keuchel, but could be wrong there.  Hendriks was the one where there was a ton of rumors, but right or wrong I attribute that to being a La Russa oriented move.

I feel like we need to define leak here.

If Conforto signs here, was it not clear that he could be a Sox target? Plenty of smoke from Fox, etc.

Whereas if Sox sign Kris Bryant, that be pretty unannounced.

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