4th best rotation?

[Chimpton]

Just read the article on MLB pages that has the White Sox down as the 4th best rotation in baseball this season, even with Keuchal as one of them, and Kopech moving into starting with limited innings. Is this a realistic assessment? And are we just one injury to Giolito or Lynn away from a big problem? Because there doesn't appear to be any real depth in starting pitching unless one of the AAA pitchers will surprise us all.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Chimpton said:

Just read the article on MLB pages that has the White Sox down as the 4th best rotation in baseball this season, even with Keuchal as one of them, and Kopech moving into starting with limited innings. Is this a realistic assessment? And are we just one injury to Giolito or Lynn away from a big problem? Because there doesn't appear to be any real depth in starting pitching unless one of the AAA pitchers will surprise us all.

There's not.  It's basically Lopez, Velasquez and Lambert.  Certainly no pitchers one would consider halfway reliable unless you believe in Reynaldo's second half resurgence after his eye procedure.

[Sarava]

The Sox do have a very good rotation. But yes, it's fragile and has no depth in case of injury or under-performance. also, playoff-wise, they probably don't have the dominant #1 that many other contenders have, that can throw the team on their shoulders. That's not to say one of them couldn't turn in to that this season, though.

[Chicago White Sox]

It’s a potentially great rotation on paper, but there are three caveats:

• Keuchel is a complete wild card.  He’s only two years removed from a 5th place AL Cy Young finish, but is coming off a bad season (and horrible second half) with continued regression in his K rate.  A return to 2020 form isn’t happening, but can Dallas give us solid #5 numbers?  Again, the stuff continues to get worse each and every year, but if he’s limited to two times through the order I think it’s very possible.  However, if he does improve, he should in theory be limited to 159 innings next year to prevent his 2023 option from vesting, although that’s 100% dependent on Tony and he’s shown little regard to future season impacts.
• Kopech’s ceiling is “best starting pitcher in baseball” and he flashed very well last year (2.97 FIP | 93rd percentile xwOBA) in a 69 inning sample.  However, durability will be the main question for him as he didn’t get as many innings last year as planned (partially due to a hamstring injury) and basically missed the entire 2019 & 2020 seasons due to TJS & COVID.  His career high in innings is ~140 from back in 2018 and that seems to be on the high-end of the range of outcomes for this year.  And it’s very possible that even if healthy, he wears down towards the end of the season and starts to lose his effectiveness.  To me, he will need to managed very carefully if we have any hopes of him playing any sort of impactful playoff role next year.
• We have amazingly little SP depth.  Right now, Lopez and Velasquez are our #6 & #7 starters respectively.  The former was on the brink of a DFA last year and the latter actually was DFA last year.  With Stiever out to the start the season, that only leaves Lambert in AAA & Bilous in AA as viable options on the 40 man roster.  If we have any injury bad luck with our rotation, this lack of SP depth could prove highly problematic.

Edited March 29, 2022 by Chicago White Sox

[ScootsMcGoots]

I agree the SP depth is not good, but is there a team out there that has good SP depth? Maybe the Dodgers?

[caulfield12]

19 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

I agree the SP depth is not good, but is there a team out there that has good SP depth? Maybe the Dodgers?

Mets, Brewers and Blue Jays according to their rankings.

LAD depends on Bauer resolution to an extent.

Even had Stros and Giants ahead of LA, fwiw.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 29, 2022 by caulfield12

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

We have one of the best 1-3 in baseball.  Ratings also probably put little emphasis on depth.  

[Jerksticks]

6 hours ago, Chimpton said:

Just read the article on MLB pages that has the White Sox down as the 4th best rotation in baseball this season, even with Keuchal as one of them, and Kopech moving into starting with limited innings. Is this a realistic assessment? And are we just one injury to Giolito or Lynn away from a big problem? Because there doesn't appear to be any real depth in starting pitching unless one of the AAA pitchers will surprise us all.

For some reason people on this site never compare our team to the other 29 teams when they put our FO on full blast.  
 

Our pitching and hitting will probably both be top 3 in WAR.  We are beyond spoiled except at like 2-3 positions. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by Jerksticks

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

For some reason people on this site never compare our team to the other 29 teams when they put our FO on full blast.  
 

Our pitching and hitting will probably both be top 3 in WAR.  We are beyond spoiled except at like 2-3 positions. 

Ok, Fangraphs projections has the White Sox at 47.2 WAR, 0.2 ahead of the Mets and good for 5th in baseball. That’s obviously the goal, to be top 6 right? No one can complain as long as they reach that level.

[Tnetennba]

6 hours ago, Chimpton said:

Just read the article on MLB pages that has the White Sox down as the 4th best rotation in baseball this season, even with Keuchal as one of them, and Kopech moving into starting with limited innings. Is this a realistic assessment? And are we just one injury to Giolito or Lynn away from a big problem? Because there doesn't appear to be any real depth in starting pitching unless one of the AAA pitchers will surprise us all.

They might be the 4th best collection of talent (?),  but the lack of real depth and durability/consistency questions begs how they really stack up over the course of a long season + playoffs.  

[Chimpton]

18 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

For some reason people on this site never compare our team to the other 29 teams when they put our FO on full blast.  
 

Our pitching and hitting will probably both be top 3 in WAR.  We are beyond spoiled except at like 2-3 positions. 

Nothing in my post was putting the 'FO on full blast' I was merely questioning whether ranking the WS as 4th best in the MLB was realistic when the rotation potentially looks weaker in 2022 with the loss of Rodon, and that the depth did not appear to be there. Bearing in mind that last season's pitching wasn't able to take us beyond the first round in the play offs.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Mets, Brewers and Blue Jays according to their rankings.

LAD depends on Bauer resolution to an extent.

Even had Stros and Giants ahead of LA, fwiw.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Since I’m looking, Fangraphs overall predictions also has the White Sox with the 4th best pitching staff, but interestingly they peg the Yankees as the best staff and have Torotno down at 6th.

[Tnetennba]

26 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

For some reason people on this site never compare our team to the other 29 teams when they put our FO on full blast.  
 

Our pitching and hitting will probably both be top 3 in WAR.  We are beyond spoiled except at like 2-3 positions. 

It’s not the 29 other teams we should be overly worried about.  It’s the 11 other teams that make the post season, teams that they fared far worse against last year, and magically expect to be better against w/o substantial upgrades this time around.  The FO deserves to be on blast for not improving the team that got their asses handed to them in 4 games last October.  They promised us a team that could compete for multiple championships, but sure seem content with multiple AL Central championships instead. 

[MackowiakYakYak]

I don’t have too much of an issue with our 5-7 being Kopech, Keuchel, and Lopez, but the complete lack of depth beyond that is worrying. What would it take to trade for a depth starter once the season starts? I can’t imagine a pure innings eater would cost all that much

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, MackowiakYakYak said:

I don’t have too much of an issue with our 5-7 being Kopech, Keuchel, and Lopez, but the complete lack of depth beyond that is worrying. What would it take to trade for a depth starter once the season starts? I can’t imagine a pure innings eater would cost all that much

That’s our 4-6? 

[bmags]

I would assume given this insane amount of dollars in the bullpen the depth is going to come from bullpen days plus getting some innings from a lambert/mcclure/finnegan oh god sorry I started puking

[Quin]

Everyone here sleeping on Jimmy Lambert and Tanner Banks 😤

[MackowiakYakYak]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That’s our 4-6? 

I forgot it wasn’t 2021. I had it in my mind that we had a top 4 without those guys.

I still have the same mindset. Kopech should be in the rotation, Keuchel we have to deal with as a #5, and Lopez is a better than average #6. If Keuchel is the pitcher we saw last year then we cut ties and move Lopez in if Lopez is pitching well or go get cheap depth. Not having a Dylan Covey sitting in AAA isn’t going to be what kills this team, and if it comes down to needing those call-ups then they can be acquired for cheap.

However, if the Sox need a 4th starter because none of the guys listed can do the job then a major move needs to be made. I still don’t think that will be too cost prohibitive, but we might need to see actually top 30 prospect value being moved to get someone.

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

I would assume given this insane amount of dollars in the bullpen the depth is going to come from bullpen days plus getting some innings from a lambert/mcclure/finnegan oh god sorry I started puking

While they probably thought that, having scheduled double headers in addition to the normal weather ones adds an extra layer of indigestion.

[Jerksticks]

1 hour ago, Chimpton said:

Nothing in my post was putting the 'FO on full blast' I was merely questioning whether ranking the WS as 4th best in the MLB was realistic when the rotation potentially looks weaker in 2022 with the loss of Rodon, and that the depth did not appear to be there. Bearing in mind that last season's pitching wasn't able to take us beyond the first round in the play offs.

I wasn’t accusing you of that, I just made a general statement about all the pitchforks around here.  For sure all fair questions.  
 

I just meant that when you look at other rotations, there are few if any I’d trade straight up, all things considered.  
 

For example, the Blue Jays are getting a lot of media tugging for their rotation being the best in the AL East but I’d still take ours any day in the AL, probably the whole league.  

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, MackowiakYakYak said:

I forgot it wasn’t 2021. I had it in my mind that we had a top 4 without those guys.

I still have the same mindset. Kopech should be in the rotation, Keuchel we have to deal with as a #5, and Lopez is a better than average #6. If Keuchel is the pitcher we saw last year then we cut ties and move Lopez in if Lopez is pitching well or go get cheap depth. Not having a Dylan Covey sitting in AAA isn’t going to be what kills this team, and if it comes down to needing those call-ups then they can be acquired for cheap.

However, if the Sox need a 4th starter because none of the guys listed can do the job then a major move needs to be made. I still don’t think that will be too cost prohibitive, but we might need to see actually top 30 prospect value being moved to get someone.

This team has enough good players that it seems unlikely anything will kill them in terms of missing the playoffs. But…we saw last year how 2 more wins was the difference between home field advantage in the first round, and with the Byes this year seeding could be even more important. Whether it’s the manager giving away games, Lambert being the main backup plan, or keeping outfielders healthy, those little things in May could very readily have big leverage in October.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

This team has enough good players that it seems unlikely anything will kill them in terms of missing the playoffs. But…we saw last year how 2 more wins was the difference between home field advantage in the first round, and with the Byes this year seeding could be even more important. Whether it’s the manager giving away games, Lambert being the main backup plan, or keeping outfielders healthy, those little things in May could very readily have big leverage in October.

Agreed. It's much more important this year with the byes.

Last year they seem to wait to long to rest the pitching. This year with the decreased spring training this may be more important.  However they can push a little more at the end and receive rest with getting a bye.

It will be interesting to see the strategy of teams toward the end of the year.

[ChiSox59]

8 hours ago, Chimpton said:

Just read the article on MLB pages that has the White Sox down as the 4th best rotation in baseball this season, even with Keuchal as one of them, and Kopech moving into starting with limited innings. Is this a realistic assessment? And are we just one injury to Giolito or Lynn away from a big problem? Because there doesn't appear to be any real depth in starting pitching unless one of the AAA pitchers will surprise us all.

Every rotation (except maybe the Dodgers) is losing an ace away from having a big problem. 

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Since I’m looking, Fangraphs overall predictions also has the White Sox with the 4th best pitching staff, but interestingly they peg the Yankees as the best staff and have Torotno down at 6th.

Maybe, if Severino returns to his pre-injury form.  Big if.

[bmags]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Every rotation (except maybe the Dodgers) is losing an ace away from having a big problem. 

Tampa never seems hurt by any one piece.