Question about Grandal here:

Is it unfair to list his 162 game average fWAR since catchers play less games than other positions?  Or is that already built into the WAR calculation for catchers?

1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

Question about Grandal here:

Is it unfair to list his 162 game average fWAR since catchers play less games than other positions?  Or is that already built into the WAR calculation for catchers?

This is a good point. I'm going to change it to 120 games. 

I’ll play. Most confident in Eloy as less injury risk as a dh (primarily) and shouldn’t have negative defensive value in equation as opposed to zero as dh.  Unfortunately, Grandal has to be my least confident as he is older with natural decline, injuries have maybe caused chronic knee issues (affecting offense and defense) and if comparing to previous avg WAR he has a higher bar to clear. I would be happy with 100 games caught and 2.0 WAR. Prior to last year, he had ten consecutive years with a ops+ over 100. 

I think Grandal is finished as a productive player. Eloy I have the most confidence in that he will mash when in the lineup

Relying on Grandal is malpractice. 

I picked Robert for staying healthy. Not because there's evidence to suggest it, just a gut feeling.

I voted Mocada just to be optimistic but I’m not going to go out on a limb and predict anything.  I just really want to see Yoan, Eloy, & Robert take the next step and have monster seasons.

 I have the least confidence in Grandal.   I think he’s cooked and is a slow start away from a DFA, if he can even make it through Spring Training w/o getting hurt. 

My confidence is based on projected fWAR, which player will likely meet / exceed and which player will likely fall short.

Ranked most confident to least confident of meeting/exceeding:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fangraphsdc&team=4&lg=all&players=

1. Kopech 24 Starts 1.1 fWAR - I think the missed 8 starts is reasonable, but he should earn a much higher fWAR than 1.1, since I expect his knee issues to be resolved. He may breakdown again, but has the most upside in terms of potential.
2. Giolito 31 Starts 1.9 fWAR - Like Grandal below, more a commentary of such a low projection. He had a terrible year last year and still had a 1.8 fWAR. I believe he will come back focused on pitching well into his final arbitration and also with the hopes of getting off the Titanic and being traded to a contending team this July.
3. Robert 139 Games 4.0 fWAR - Not confident he will reach 139 Games Played, but confident he will contribute on a similar fWAR/games played basis.
4. Grandal 89 Games 2.4 fWAR - The projected fWAR is more a commentary on the low expectations at this point based on age and past performance. If he is healthy, the shift rules and fact he doesn't have much competition to overtake him in terms of starter, he should hit 2.0 + fWAR just brining his wOBA up to .300, which I think is very possible.
5. Moncada - 138 Games 2.8 fWAR - Biggest wild card in terms of his performance. If he can follow pitches, he will rake and has the best chance of beating his projection by over 1.0. Also has a substantial chance of missing his fWAR by 1.0. I'd take a 2.8 fWAR at this point.
6. Jimenez 143 Games 3.0 fWAR - Least confident in terms of both games played and fWAR earned at DH and/or LF. 1.7 fWAR his best ever,

I voted Eloy for both in the poll, but meant to click Kopech for most likely to exceed neutral expectations (1.1 fWAR), and Eloy most likely to fail meeting neutral expectations (3.0 fWAR).

@tray

14 hours ago, Tnetennba said:

I voted Mocada just to be optimistic but I’m not going to go out on a limb and predict anything.  I just really want to see Yoan, Eloy, & Robert take the next step and have monster seasons.

 I have the least confidence in Grandal.   I think he’s cooked and is a slow start away from a DFA, if he can even make it through Spring Training w/o getting hurt. 

Waiting for Moncada to have a monster season seems like a fools errand at this point.  Dude has played close to 650 mlb games already.  He is what he is at this point in his career. 

 

12 hours ago, LittleHurtCG said:

Waiting for Moncada to have a monster season seems like a fools errand at this point.  Dude has played close to 650 mlb games already.  He is what he is at this point in his career. 

I'm not waiting for him to have a monster season but I think something between 2021 and 2019 is possible. 

Why are Cease,TA, Vaughn and Ben10di missing from the poll?

Edited December 20, 20223 yr by The Mighty Mite

I'll be in the minority with this but I believe Grandal will have a slightly better season. My biggest worry is Gio.