24 minutes ago, bmags said:

That’s more than Juan Soto got, way more, so I don’t think so.

2 1/3 years of Juan Soto at $58M in cost vs. 4 years of Robert at $67.5M in cost.  Assume the Padres thought they were getting a 6 win player.  At $9M per win, we’re talking about $68M in surplus value.  Robert at say a 4.5 win projection is worth ~$95M in surplus value.  That’s a massive difference in value.

And in terms of the return, the Nationals got per BA the 11th overall prospect, the 25th overall prospect, the 62nd overall prospect, and a former top overall pitching prospect (10th on BA’s 2021 list).  Gore may have lost some value at this point, but we’re still talking four legit top 100 talents including two top 25 guys.  For simplicity purposes, I’m allocating Susana to the Bell part of the trade.

My hypothetical proposal is more than what the Nationals got, but the main difference in value would be Holliday over Abrams.  Otherwise, most of the pieces more or less stack up with Gore arguably more valuable than the 4th piece I’m proposing.

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

How many teams have too many pitching prospects? How many teams look at their pitching staffs and think “oh these two prospects are blocked that means they’re movable”?

No team really has “blocked” pitching prospects given the nature of MLB these days but it’s not unheard of for teams to swap arms for bats. 

6 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

And honestly about 95% of us here would be more than fine with that 3 person package and if that's the three any fourth piece is gravy. 

This is where it's going to end up, so BAL either should get on board or stop playing games.

Neither BAL, CIN, ATL, NYY or BOS is likely to end up with Snell or Montgomery so Elias trying to "wait us out" is a nonsensical strategy. 

Cease will be in high demand even after those signings so BAL isn't exactly our only dance partner. 

Elias needs to s%*# or get off the pot.

Elias isn’t going to do anything moronic. Your GM is in no hurry either.

Chances are, Getz is the one holding things up.

32 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

The Orioles won’t include Mayo or Basallo in a Cease trade. They have to headline with one of Cowser/Kjerstad though with Norby/Ortiz as a 2nd piece. Then the rest could be a pitcher (Povich) and maybe like Max Wagner. If Orioles aren’t willing to do that, they likely aren’t getting Cease. If Sox realistically want more than that, I doubt anyone acquires him. 

I’d rather take a single third prospect back that was rated a bit higher than third and fourth pieces.  But that is just due to history and looking back at the Eaton, Sale, and Quintana trades.

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias isn’t going to do anything moronic. Your GM is in no hurry either.

Chances are, Getz is the one holding things up.

We have heard that Elias is "very difficult" to work with in these trade talks.

Getz unhealthy obsession with pitching probably isn't helping I agree, but if you guys are offering Ortiz or Norby as the main piece plus a couple non Top 100s, then certainly BAL has more than a little blame here.

 

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias isn’t going to do anything moronic. Your GM is in no hurry either.

Chances are, Getz is the one holding things up.

Maybe Getz can sweeten the pot and get a deal done by including our currently projected starting RF and Baltimore hometown hero, Gavin Sheets!

Edited December 28, 20232 yr by WhiteSox2023

I 'm not very optimistic a trade is going to happen because the wrong teams are involved.  There are no big market aggressive teams going after him just small/mid market teams who are content where they are.  Yes the Braves are aggressive but unfortunately Cease is just a luxury for them.  If they get him at their price great if not oh well they're still one of the top teams in baseball. The Sox needed teams like the Dodgers, Phillies, Padres, Mariners, Blue Jays to be involved to push the market and bully other teams to increase their offer.  I just don't think any of these teams are going to step up and make a trade happen.  I will say the Cubs are the one wild card who can get desperate enough to get this thing moving towards a conclusion.

Just now, WhiteSox2023 said:

Maybe Getz can sweeten the pot and get a deal done by including our currently projects starting RF and hometown Baltimore hero, Gavin Sheets!

Nope. Untouchable. 

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m assuming the elite guys will pan out.  Everything about their profiles says that is the case. 

And I’m good with teams doing that. Lots of teams do incredibly stupid things all the time. I’m not interested in my team doing moronic things.

And btw, you guys assume Cease is going to bounce back and be really good again..that’s a major assumption.

Yes, I assume he will bounce back some, but have never said he will return to 2022 form.  However, that’s being factored into the prices we have discussed over the past month.  If this was 2022 Cease we were selling, the headliner discussions wouldn’t be centered on Coswer & Kjerstad but would start with Basallo or Mayo at minimum.

4 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

We have heard that Elias is "very difficult" to work with in these trade talks.

Getz unhealthy obsession with pitching probably isn't helping I agree, but if you guys are offering Ortiz or Norby as the main piece plus a couple non Top 100s, then certainly BAL has more than a little blame here.

 

Show me where anyone has said Elias is “very difficult” to work with.  I have never seen that.

In fact, Elias is very secretive in these things. 

4 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Maybe Getz can sweeten the pot and get a deal done by including our currently projected starting RF and Baltimore hometown hero, Gavin Sheets!

No thanks but I would love to add Kopech to put him in the pen.

Edited December 28, 20232 yr by Sports Guy

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yes, I assume he will bounce back some, but have never said he will return to 2022 form.  However, that’s being factored into the prices we have discussed over the past month.  If this was 2022 Cease we were selling, the headliner discussions wouldn’t be centered on Coswer & Kjerstad but would start with Basallo or Mayo at minimum.

Of course but there are plenty of Sox fans who think those guys should be heading the package now.

Just now, Sports Guy said:

No thanks 

Okay, would you like him for cash considerations then?  As in, you take Sheets and the Sox also include money?

Just now, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

No team really has “blocked” pitching prospects given the nature of MLB these days but it’s not unheard of for teams to swap arms for bats. 

It’s one of those things teams used to do more often but now really doesn’t make sense.

If the Mariners, for example, were enamored with the Orioles prospects, they could move Gilbert for a big return since he has more control than Cease. No reason to involve the White Sox at all if they wanted the Os prospects.

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course but there are plenty of Sox fans who think those guys should be heading the package now.

I don’t think that’s necessarily true.  What do you think about @Y2Jimmy’s proposal above?

Edited December 28, 20232 yr by WhiteSox2023

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The claims are obvious…do you really think if Getz was getting top 25 prospects thrown at him that he would be sitting around and not moving Cease?

 

 

Yes, if they’re not pitching prospects 

5 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Okay, would you like him for cash considerations then?  As in, you take Sheets and the Sox also include money?

I don’t want him for anything. We don’t need him and already have a log jam on his type of guy. I want to trade guys, not add to them.

5 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I don’t think that’s necessarily true.  What do you think about @Y2Jimmy’s proposal above?

It’s 100% true.  I have seen it. Hell, someone in this thread is arguing for getting Mayo. 

I think you will have an extremely hard time to get a better deal than one of Westburg, Cowser or Kjerstad and Ortiz or Norby (Ortiz not in the deal if Westburg is the choice).

“Crab cakes and hoarding prospects. THATS WHAT MARYLAND DOES!”

11 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I 'm not very optimistic a trade is going to happen because the wrong teams are involved.  There are no big market aggressive teams going after him just small/mid market teams who are content where they are.  Yes the Braves are aggressive but unfortunately Cease is just a luxury for them.  If they get him at their price great if not oh well they're still one of the top teams in baseball. The Sox needed teams like the Dodgers, Phillies, Padres, Mariners, Blue Jays to be involved to push the market and bully other teams to increase their offer.  I just don't think any of these teams are going to step up and make a trade happen.  I will say the Cubs are the one wild card who can get desperate enough to get this thing moving towards a conclusion.

BOS and NYY badly need cheap pitching and I'm not even ruling out the Dodgers because they could add to their rotation with very little cash expense and when Ohtani, Buehler, May etc all come back there isn't going to be room for their prospects.

The LAD could easily offer one SP, Pages and Busch and it wouldn't affect them on the field one bit. 

I dont think they are out yet despite their moves, esp if Burnes isn't getting moved.

And Cease isn't a luxury for ATL. He's a need. Its unlikely they beat the LAD in a series unless they put a stud on the mound every single night. Right now they can't quite do that.

Look at MLB’s (the most accessible albeit not the best) top 100 list. What top 50 guys are realistically going to be available for Cease?

That list isn’t updated but based on what they show right now, I would say 31 guys are very likely not available in trade for Cease, for varying reasons.

Of the 19 left, how many of those teams even want to trade for Cease or have what else would be required to get him?

I just think the list of teams to get close to what you hope to get isn’t a long list at all.

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias isn’t going to do anything moronic. Your GM is in no hurry either.

Chances are, Getz is the one holding things up.

Getz likely knows what he needs minimum to make a trade and hasn’t circled back yet. 

24 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I 'm not very optimistic a trade is going to happen because the wrong teams are involved.  There are no big market aggressive teams going after him just small/mid market teams who are content where they are.  Yes the Braves are aggressive but unfortunately Cease is just a luxury for them.  If they get him at their price great if not oh well they're still one of the top teams in baseball. The Sox needed teams like the Dodgers, Phillies, Padres, Mariners, Blue Jays to be involved to push the market and bully other teams to increase their offer.  I just don't think any of these teams are going to step up and make a trade happen.  I will say the Cubs are the one wild card who can get desperate enough to get this thing moving towards a conclusion.

This is worrisome but I still think he gets moved. Value will never be higher. 

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you will have an extremely hard time to get a better deal than one of Westburg, Cowser or Kjerstad and Ortiz or Norby (Ortiz not in the deal if Westburg is the choice).

Agreed but I’m not sure Baltimore has offered this. Sox wanted Cowser/Ortiz/Beavers at the deadline and Baltimore balked. I hope they enjoyed Jack Flaherty 

1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Getz likely knows what he needs minimum to make a trade and hasn’t circled back yet. 

This is worrisome but I still think he gets moved. Value will never be higher. 

Agreed but I’m not sure Baltimore has offered this. Sox wanted Cowser/Ortiz/Beavers at the deadline and Baltimore balked. I hope they enjoyed Jack Flaherty 

All info we have heard is that they wanted Holliday at the deadline.

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

All info we have heard is that they wanted Holliday at the deadline.

@Y2Jimmy0 is one of our bests. He gets info from someone