JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said: Well they have the #22, #32, and #34 picks. The Orioles seem to be really good at drafting. Remember Henderson wasn’t a 1st rounder, neither was Mayo, Ortiz, or Norby. I realize getting Hampton and Warren are better than McDermott and Povich but I don’t think it’s as bad as you think. Also they ranked 4th in Farm System Statcast Pitching Rankings by Baseball America. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-farm-system-statcast-pitching-rankings/ Let’s see how good they are at drafting when they’re picking outside the top 20 for several years in a row. Only time will tell. It’s pretty easy when you have the top pick in 2 out of 4 years and the second and fifth pick in the other 2 years… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Prior to the recent run of high picks that landed them Rutschman, Kjerstad, Cowser and Holliday, back in 2010-2012 the Orioles had theee straight years of top 4 picks and landed Machado, Bundy, and Gausman. Awesome, great picks overall. But then the big league team got good again and didn’t pick inside the top 20 for awhile and this is what they picked in the first round over those next years: Hunter Harvey, Josh Hart, DJ Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle, Cody Sedlock. Mountcastle is the only one I ever heard of. If your point is that the Os sucked donkey balls before Elias came here, we agree. Not sure what else your point is though since none of that happened under his watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Sports Guy said: If your point is that the Os sucked donkey balls before Elias came here, we agree. Not sure what else your point is though since none of that happened under his watch. My point is it’s easy to draft well when you have one of the top picks 4 or 5 years in a row. True test for Elias and co is the next few years when they’re not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Let’s see how good they are at drafting when they’re picking outside the top 20 for several years in a row. Only time will tell. It’s pretty easy when you have the top pick in 2 out of 4 years and the second and fifth pick in the other 2 years… 50% of all first round picks fail and that includes the high picks. Just because you have those, doesn’t mean you nail them. It’s easier but you still have to be good. BTW, the Os for Henderson as a comp pick, Westburg as a comp pick, Ortiz in round 4, Mayo in round 5..to name a few. Those weren’t top 5 picks. A player many on here want, Heston Kjerstad, the Os took second in a draft where everyone said Austin Martin was the best player in the draft. Now, Kjerstad is highly sought after and Martin, predictably, isn’t that good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: My point is it’s easy to draft well when you have one of the top picks 4 or 5 years in a row. True test for Elias and co is the next few years when they’re not. And btw, your premise here is about pitching…something Elias never drafted high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Demon Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, ptatc said: True. Looking only at a single year doesn't really tell much. Let's look at 2022, 2021, 2019, 2018. (2020 was an odd year so excluded) 2022 (Dodgers on both) Houston #2 ERA #2 WHIP Philadelphia #18 ERA #12 WHIP 2021 (Dodgers on both) Atlanta #8 #10 Houston #7 #8 2019 (Dodgers #1 on both) Washington #13 #8 Houston #3 #2 2018 (Houston #1 on both) Boston #8 #9 LAD #2 #2 What do you think? Any correlation for 5 seasons listed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: @Sports Guy - What conclusions are you gathering from this Statcast data point? I think the only things you can gather from it is that the Os are targeting specific types of arms and that they are bringing in guys with high end stuff and hoping to be able to develop that stuff. I don’t think you can take anything else from it other than that. It doesn’t mean they will develop or be good but it does mean that they feel guys with high stuff, miss bats, have good batted ball data, etc…have a higher ceiling. I think that’s fairly obvious and most people would agree with that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I like Lalane, just tried to put a package wasn’t sure about being too much. Seems we are in model UN again though. missed again! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: 50% of all first round picks fail and that includes the high picks. Just because you have those, doesn’t mean you nail them. It’s easier but you still have to be good. BTW, the Os for Henderson as a comp pick, Westburg as a comp pick, Ortiz in round 4, Mayo in round 5..to name a few. Those weren’t top 5 picks. A player many on here want, Heston Kjerstad, the Os took second in a draft where everyone said Austin Martin was the best player in the draft. Now, Kjerstad is highly sought after and Martin, predictably, isn’t that good. https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/ obviously, draft position makes a huge difference on probabilities of mlb success whether you want to admit it or not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Just now, Sports Guy said: I think the only things you can gather from it is that the Os are targeting specific types of arms and that they are bringing in guys with high end stuff and hoping to be able to develop that stuff. I don’t think you can take anything else from it other than that. It doesn’t mean they will develop or be good but it does mean that they feel guys with high stuff, miss bats, have good batted ball data, etc…have a higher ceiling. I think that’s fairly obvious and most people would agree with that. Is it really suggesting that or do you guys simply have less org guys with below average stuff filling out rosters? Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather be at the top of that list than the bottom but not sure any real conclusions can be drawn from it without the underlying player specific details. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said: Let's look at 2022, 2021, 2019, 2018. (2020 was an odd year so excluded) 2022 (Dodgers on both) Houston #2 ERA #2 WHIP Philadelphia #18 ERA #12 WHIP 2021 (Dodgers on both) Atlanta #8 #10 Houston #7 #8 2019 (Dodgers #1 on both) Washington #13 #8 Houston #3 #2 2018 (Houston #1 on both) Boston #8 #9 LAD #2 #2 What do you think? Any correlation for 5 seasons listed? ಠ_ಠ 18 minutes ago, Quin said: 2022: Houston #1 pitching WAR, Philly #3 2021: Braves were #14, Houston was #11 (White Sox were #1 lmao) 2020: Dodgers #5, Rays #8 2019: Washington #5, Houston #3 2018: Boston #9, Dodgers #2 2017: Houston #7, Dodgers #6 (Asterisk it) 2016: Cubs #4, Cleveland #8 2015: Royals #14, Mets #7 2014: SF #26, Royals #9 2013: St. Louis #8, Boston #14 Winners median ranking is 7.5 Losers median ranking is also 7.5 So having a top 10 staff is a pretty good thing to have. 2023 was an outlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I think they could be…but I do like the an old fashioned AL East bidding war where Elias ultimately accepts defeat and gives up Basallo & Mayo for Cease and Gavin “The Prince of Maryland” Sheets. Why do you think Elias would want or care about Gavin Sheets? I’m sure you’re joking …. You can hope right. I hope for the winning powerball ticket Everytime the jackpot is over $250 million. I bet you can guess how that’s going 😅 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said: Let's look at 2022, 2021, 2019, 2018. (2020 was an odd year so excluded) 2022 (Dodgers on both) Houston #2 ERA #2 WHIP Philadelphia #18 ERA #12 WHIP 2021 (Dodgers on both) Atlanta #8 #10 Houston #7 #8 2019 (Dodgers #1 on both) Washington #13 #8 Houston #3 #2 2018 (Houston #1 on both) Boston #8 #9 LAD #2 #2 What do you think? Any correlation for 5 seasons listed? Teams with good pitching tend to do well in the playoffs? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi8is Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 And I thought I was obsessed. Geez. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Rolle Tide said: Why do you think Elias would want or care about Gavin Sheets? I’m sure you’re joking …. You can hope right. I hope for the winning powerball ticket Everytime the jackpot is over $250 million. I bet you can guess how that’s going 😅 Because Sheets has a mean remoulade recipe and Elias has a known affinity for crab cakes ever since coming over to Baltimore. Seems like it’s destiny for this pairing to finally materialize. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/ obviously, draft position makes a huge difference on probabilities of mlb success whether you want to admit it or not lol…no one is saying anything different but the best teams are the best teams basically every year and they draft low and are still able to get good prospects. This is why I hate the concept that you must tank for 3-5 years. You don’t need to pick high to build a system. That’s not something that can even be argued against. It’s just a fact proven by many teams every year. The Os have drafted a lot of talent outside of their highest picks. I’m not worried about that going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 16 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Let’s see how good they are at drafting when they’re picking outside the top 20 for several years in a row. Only time will tell. It’s pretty easy when you have the top pick in 2 out of 4 years and the second and fifth pick in the other 2 years… I hear you but I just gave you 4 names not in the top 20. Getz would gladly take 3 of those 4 in a trade for Cease. 2 of those names have been mentioned in rumors. I’m imagining he’d be all over Norby if he was a better defender. When Elias arrived our scouting and development group was barebones. We had done horrible at drafting even with top picks. Peter Angelos didn’t value those groups, international players, DR clinics etc. Elias has fixed all of that. I’m confident they will continue to find talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Is it really suggesting that or do you guys simply have less org guys with below average stuff filling out rosters? Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather be at the top of that list than the bottom but not sure any real conclusions can be drawn from it without the underlying player specific details. Well the thing is, we know what this team is valuing, what they look for and what they are teaching. It’s not always coming through in terms of who is on the ML roster right now but that’s because Elias has to build this up. It takes time. The Orioles have plenty of org filler. Now, the one question I do have about this ranking and the stuff+ ranking is what is the impact on those starts with Grayson Rodriguez. He had one of the highest stuff+ rankings in the Majors this year, so it stands to reason it was high in the minors too. But I also think most organizations would be like that..where a guy or 2 can skew some of these numbers. OTOH, these numbers encompass the entire minors, so one guy shouldn’t effect things too much. Edited January 4 by Sports Guy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Demon Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, ptatc said: Teams with good pitching tend to do well in the playoffs? Of course, they do. It is also a misguided belief to say the Orioles have a bad pitching staff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: lol…no one is saying anything different but the best teams are the best teams basically every year and they draft low and are still able to get good prospects. This is why I hate the concept that you must tank for 3-5 years. You don’t need to pick high to build a system. That’s not something that can even be argued against. It’s just a fact proven by many teams every year. The Os have drafted a lot of talent outside of their highest picks. I’m not worried about that going forward. Everyone references the Rays as the example of this but they also trade most of their good mlb players before they hit free agency for prospects. They don’t have a top farm system because they draft so much better than everyone else. If that’s the model the Orioles want to follow I suppose you can be competitive often but never really a consistent contender to win a World Series and you also get to see your team constantly unload their best players every few years. It’s not the worst model for a small market team but I think I’d also be frustrated by it as a fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Because Sheets has a mean remoulade recipe and Elias has a known affinity for crab cakes ever since coming over to Baltimore. Seems like it’s destiny for this pairing to finally materialize. Marylanders don’t put remoulade on their crab cakes. Sheets is the son of Larry a former Orioles who owns a batting cage business here. But, I doubt Elias cares about any of that. Anyway I know your joking LOL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said: I hear you but I just gave you 4 names not in the top 20. Getz would gladly take 3 of those 4 in a trade for Cease. 2 of those names have been mentioned in rumors. I’m imagining he’d be all over Norby if he was a better defender. When Elias arrived our scouting and development group was barebones. We had done horrible at drafting even with top picks. Peter Angelos didn’t value those groups, international players, DR clinics etc. Elias has fixed all of that. I’m confident they will continue to find talent. We’ll see, time will tell. Too early to make sweeping generalizations either way imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Just now, Rolle Tide said: Marylanders don’t put remoulade on their crab cakes. Sheets is the son of Larry a former Orioles who owns a batting cage business here. But, I doubt Elias cares about any of that. Anyway I know your joking LOL. What the hell do you put on your crab cakes then? But yes, 100% joking about that proposal and obviously Gavin Sheets makes zero sense you guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Snowy Demon said: Of course, they do. It is also a misguided belief to say the Orioles have a bad pitching staff. I don't think that was ever a comment. Bad is one thing, being good is another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: What the hell do you put on your crab cakes then? But yes, 100% joking about that proposal and obviously Gavin Sheets makes zero sense you guys. Old Bay 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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