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Luis Robert trade thread: La Pantera stays.


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1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Probably nothing. They very clearly didn't hear the names they would've wanted to for 4 years of Robert though. Nobody expected him to crater like this. Injury risk sure but not sure. It's humorous to me though that people on this board and elsewhere (in hindsight) think that the team should've traded Robert immediately but also believe that they shouldn't have traded Cease when they did. Pick a fucking lane. 

Robert was coming off of a career year and Cease wasn't.  That's my lane.  My lane is the GM should know these things, especially when there is all kinds of off of the field reasons we keep hearing about.  Maybe if that isn't a part of the lane, Sox people shouldn't be putting it out there?

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1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

Yeah. The only point of rumors now is for these guys to start the early shitting on Vientos, or whatever reasonable return is available, so that they can troll for the next 4 years after every 0-4 game. 

I guess I should pretend to like Vientos. Weird take.

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1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Have you looked at the Cease return recently?  And the Robert trade isn’t expected to be any better.  Perhaps they did screw up in the case of their two biggest trade chips?

Can't be that.  Has to be everyone else who is wrong.  Because "value".

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1 hour ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I think that was the time when BTV had his SV at like 77m. 

The idea that we couldn't get a couple savage bats for him because people are hoarding position players is absurd. Does it mean we would have to accept 2 really good Top 100 bats and maybe a pitcher or other useful piece instead of a third Top 100 bat ? Maybe.

But if you saying we couldn't even get that is absurd on its face. You know how i know? 

Because when we traded Crochet, we got a couple Top 100 bats (both LH too) plus more and most would agree that Crochets value, post one TJS, while very high after last season was still inferior to Roberts value coming after his huge 2023 campaign with four years of control.

But somehow even though plus defender, plus speed CFs who hit almost 40 bombs don't exactly grow on trees we simply couldn't have gotten multiple stud position prospects, huh?

Getz is a fuckup and a dumbfuck, stop covering for him. 

Yeah, that's what I don't get.  What happens in the little bit of extra time of waiting that was supposed to be better for a Robert trade return?  If the expectation isn't that the offers will get better (you know, like Dylan Cease being traded while he value is down after a down year from his career year), why are you waiting?  I am still not sure what waiting an extra six months to year does for his trade return.  

I mean if I am understanding the vagueness of the answers here, I am being told that Luis Robert was worth 100 million dollars, but we were only get  back say $90 million in return, but if we waited six months until his worth fell to $90 million, making that same deal was now OK, because it balances.  If that is the case, and you don't expect his return to go UP during that time period, what are you waiting for, exactly?  Peak value is peak value.

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1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I don't think this was a settle. I think they've wanted him since that draft.

i think we wanted him but also catchers rest more than other positions. the value in trades just is muted by that, any way you slice it

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34 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I guess I should pretend to like Vientos. Weird take.

I mean, it's about diminishing expectations for the fan base, and minimizing the fact that this was not the only time that Robert could have been traded.  For example we do also have the Reds offer reporting from over the winter that had the Sox getting two top guys for Robert if they had been willing to kick in, but if you can turn this into hating this return, it's just Sox fans being irrational, again, because obviously they were never going to get more.

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18 minutes ago, Quin said:

The Sox have to really like Vientos cause Lenyn is a better hitter than him this season.

If the value of Robert is Veintos or 2 18 yr old projects in the DSL, I'll take Vientos. I'd rather gamble on a guy who has proved he can hit bombs at the MLB level, buy him on the cheap, and try to get him right again, than depend on the Sox developing dice rolls to be valuable for the team 4 years from now.

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24 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Right but Sosa doesn’t replicate Vientos’ 2024 in his very best dreams 

Funny thing is Vientos isnt duplicating that either. 

Vientos has a xwOBA in the 15th percentile -- significantly worse than Robert. The only thing worse than his 12th percentile offensive run value added is his 8th percentile fielding grade. Vientos is slow, with a horrible defensive profile, a slow bat and horrible zone control numbers.

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1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

Yeah. The only point of rumors now is for these guys to start the early shitting on Vientos, or whatever reasonable return is available, so that they can troll for the next 4 years after every 0-4 game. 

I don’t think Vientos is a “bad return” per se if you believe he’s just having a bad season and there is a good chance he mostly returns to form.  I just worry that 2024 was an outlier for him and that he ends up being a below average 1B.

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11 minutes ago, Quin said:

I may be jaded, but I'm worried about them trading Vientos than having Vientos 2024 turn into Eloy 2019-2020 or Moncada 2019/2021

#1, I have yet to see the Sox be the type of team to fix a dude like this long term, but even if you want to give them the benefit of the doubt, he is over two years of service time.  There is no way this dude is on our next playoff team if he is fixed.  So now we are back to trading him in two years to hope we find the next guy.

#2, The Mets are another team loaded with some really interesting super young talent.  I would much rather see them do some scouting on some of those international players and take lottery tickets they like vs a guy with two years of service.  The vast majority of the Sox potential offensive talent is going to be here for 2/3/4 years anyway, so why do we need a dude who doesn't fit that window?  If they don't want to give up their middle minors guys, look at the DSL signings and see if you can make something happen out of those 22/23/24 class signings.

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9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t think Vientos is a “bad return” per se if you believe he’s just having a bad season and there is a good chance he mostly returns to form.  I just worry that 2024 was an outlier for him and that he ends up being a below average 1B.

All reasonable. I think a team can increase the value of their return by taking on slumping, post hype players, guys soon to be out of options, or other projects to fix. Unfortunately, Robert isn't commanding a knockout return. 

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13 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

All reasonable. I think a team can increase the value of their return by taking on slumping, post hype players, guys soon to be out of options, or other projects to fix. Unfortunately, Robert isn't commanding a knockout return. 

This feels like the 10th time I've read this here now... please someone show me where there is value in "post hype players." Please even define the classification. I have no idea where we've gotten this thought that we "increase value" by acquiring players who have accrued data to the point of them being now classified as lesser players. The unknown and/or limited rep players are where variability is much higher and the margins for forecasting error are also much higher. That's where you should be playing.

This is a team that should be acquiring lottery tickets with carry-skills or abilities that the team excels at maximizing in my opinion.

The more data on a player, the more reliable and accurate your projections/forecasts should be. Vientos now has 265 games where he has accumulated 1.5 WAR. He's done that while being an atrocious defender, a below average runner and a slightly below average bat.

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13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This feels like the 10th time I've read this here now... please someone show me where there is value in "post hype players." Please even define the classification. I have no idea where we've gotten this thought that we "increase value" by acquiring players who have accrued data to the point of them being now classified as lesser players. The unknown and/or limited rep players are where variability is much higher and the margins for forecasting error are also much higher. That's where you should be playing.

This is a team that should be acquiring lottery tickets with carry-skills or abilities that the team excels at maximizing in my opinion.

The more data on a player, the more reliable and accurate your projections/forecasts should be. Vientos now has 265 games where he has accumulated 1.5 WAR. He's done that while being an atrocious defender, a below average runner and a slightly below average bat.

I would even sort of understand taking on a Vientos type pitchern who had high expectations but disappointed to some extent, because we do actually seem to have a magic touch as an organization there.  But we don't even have that history with hitters.

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13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This feels like the 10th time I've read this here now... please someone show me where there is value in "post hype players." Please even define the classification. I have no idea where we've gotten this thought that we "increase value" by acquiring players who have accrued data to the point of them being now classified as lesser players. The unknown and/or limited rep players are where variability is much higher and the margins for forecasting error are also much higher. That's where you should be playing.

This is a team that should be acquiring lottery tickets with carry-skills or abilities that the team excels at maximizing in my opinion.

The more data on a player, the more reliable and accurate your projections/forecasts should be. Vientos now has 265 games where he has accumulated 1.5 WAR. He's done that while being an atrocious defender, a below average runner and a slightly below average bat.

Can you define lottery ticket, and tell us why somebody considered a "lottery ticket" isn't a "top prospect"? Or even why a player taking on a label that literally means 10 million to one shot of success is intrinsically worth more than a player who had had sustained success at multiple levels of minor league ball, and maybe even hit in the majors before league adjustments?

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10 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Can you define lottery ticket, and tell us why somebody considered a "lottery ticket" isn't a "top prospect"? Or even why a player taking on a label that literally means 10 million to one shot of success is intrinsically worth more than a player who had had sustained success at multiple levels of minor league ball, and maybe even hit in the majors before league adjustments?

A lottery ticket is any prospect ranked outside of the top 200 aggregated, or any prospect that does not appear in MLB centered rankings (meaning League wide, not team centered).

If you can't get top 100 guys, they should be acquiring as many of those as they possibly can with skills/abilities that they feel they can maximize. There's a LOT of noise with that group. There's much less noise with players who have shown you who they are.

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26 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Funny thing is Vientos isnt duplicating that either. 

Vientos has a xwOBA in the 15th percentile -- significantly worse than Robert. The only thing worse than his 12th percentile offensive run value added is his 8th percentile fielding grade. Vientos is slow, with a horrible defensive profile, a slow bat and horrible zone control numbers.

I mentioned it earlier, but his power last year was exaggerated by a 92 percentile barrel rate.  Can he replicate that again?  If not, I’m just not sure what’s so exciting about his profile.

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