The Current Core

[chitownsportsfan]

17 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think Smith probably has a career back in the pen if he cant sustain the innings. His stuff should play up more there and he has a great arm, so Im confident there.

Taylor is the kind of guy that even if he struggles results wise, some teams will always bet on that arm. I was really high on him coming into this year and still love his arm, but really wish he wasnt reliever profiled. 

As for Meidroth, that type of defensive performance is so much noisier for me, so hard to expect it without seeing a much larger sample. But if he does sustain it for 300+ games, I think it would reset his floor and he'd have a career as a utility guy guaranteed for a while. 

Meidroth playing an above avg SS for the 50 games or whatever before Colson came up pretty much guarantees him a 10 year plus career imo. There's just not more than 30 of those guys in the entire world at any given time.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, Jake said:

If you are willing to believe that Vargas became a new man when his swing change happened, this is what he's done since then: 1.6 fWAR, .246/.325/.458 line, 117 wRC+, 12 homers in 77 games. You could even naively extrapolate that to a full season by multiplying everything by 2. That will play just fine at 1B even if it doesn't mean he's a star. And it's clear he can play 3B competently. The way I look at it, he's not really playing 1B because there's something seriously wrong with his 3B defense but because the Sox have the personnel to push him there. I'm not going to act like any of us can precisely forecast what anyone is going to be, but I feel reasonably confident that Vargas is an MLB-quality player. His floor is still a bench player I suppose but I'm feeling like he's most likely a solid everyday player much as he's looked like for the bulk of this season.

As for the rest of the core, my current gut feeling is that Teel is the next safest bet. Of course, playing catcher is always such a big plus that it raises your floor. It's obvious that he's at least solid defensively. And to me, his bat is looking just like we would have hoped. I don't think there's a ton of risk there besides the usual cautions you give with small sample sizes. For those who don't compulsively check these things, Statcast points towards Teel actually deserving significantly better results than he's gotten so far. Those watching the games can probably remember a handful of near-misses on homers and such. Teel is (IMO) a really likable player thanks to his very obvious intensity and desire to win, but it wouldn't shock me if at some point that same trait might drive him into a slump. Still, there's a lot to like there. His ceiling isn't exactly Johnny Bench, but the talent is there to be one of if not the greatest Sox catchers (sorry late career Pudge). We'll happily "settle" for an AJ Pierzynski type of career too of course.

As a hitter, I feel pretty good about Quero as well. His defense has looked more rough than Teel's in some respects but I think it's best not to put too much stock in partial-season framing metrics, especially with ABS challenges coming soon (probably). Quero makes excellent swing decisions at the plate and is very much the kind of hitter that Getz seems to love. He's doing some things at the plate that help him manage the excellent contact rate and low chase rates while also limiting his upside. He's an extreme outlier in terms of how deep he lets the ball get before making contact paired with a very opposite field oriented swing path (thanks to Statcast for giving data on this). Quero is basically propping up his plate discipline and contact by watching the pitch so long that he often can't make power-oriented contact. That is paired with a short, slow swing which has the same costs and benefits. He may need to adjust that to become a truly good hitter. I'll note that Statcast indicates that Quero has been gradually making contact more out in front of his body, with a bit less push-oriented bat angle, and higher-velocity swings. That matches the eye test for me too. That said, he's shown that he can basically go up there in survival mode and be a MLB-quality hitter even if an unremarkable one. Did I mention he's just freshly 22 years old? That's really exciting to me, too.

I have less to say about Meidroth despite really liking him. I still see some risk that he ends up a bench player. So far, his defense seems good enough that it's not going to kill your team if he never really hits. I'm not sure whether that will be true in the long run but it will be great if it is. He only needs to find a little bit more power to be a fixture in the lineup going forward. I'm happy to give him every chance going forward.

It's great seeing Colson not flounder at the MLB level and his defensive acumen at 3B and SS is a very nice surprise. He's also running better than I expected. He's showing the top flight bat speed (and therefore power potential) that we had been promised. He's also showing some really problematic swing and miss tendencies in his short sample so far. I look at in-zone whiff rate as the simplest measure of pure contact ability. His would be the second worst in MLB if he had enough ABs to qualify — those around that part of the leaderboard include, to be fair, some great hitters who offset the whiffs with other stuff like power hitting and walks. So far I'm not seeing great patience from Colson although it's not a serious issue in and of itself. He's being beaten badly by non-fastball pitches thus far, whiffing at around half of them which is truly astronomical. Looking at his zone breakdowns (beware: very small sample sizes), he's only making >60% contact on pitches that are down the middle, middle in, or up and in. The inside pitches he's hitting extremely softly. Middle-middle is the only place he's making hard contact. A change from his first 100ish games in AAA is that he's handling velocity pretty well, which is one of those signs that he's not necessarily the guy we saw in 2024 or early 2025. But he's just oozing with risk and I'm not going to pencil him into the core yet despite a nice-looking slash line. 

I like Lenyn Sosa. I'm not totally sure what he is or will be. I think the average Soxtalker underrates his defense because of how conspicuous his defensive mistakes are. It's not often that there's a guy who seems completely competent at 2B or 3B but is somehow confounded by the basics of 1B defense like standing on the base and catching throws. He's just kind of a space cadet, it is what it is. At the plate, there are some nice trends in his profile. Every year, the production has improved (granted it started at a very bad level). Every year, his bat speed has gotten faster. His exit velocities have gotten higher (predictable from the bat speed). His ground ball rates have gone down (a ton) and his line drive rates have gone up. He's doubled the rate at which he pulls the ball in the air. On the other hand, he barely ever walks and he chases a ton (second only to PCA in MLB). Those limit the upside because I think those are traits that are very difficult to teach. He doesn't make good swing decisions in general, not only chasing but taking too many strikes. Yet he shows very good natural contact ability and the arrow is still going up on the raw power. The two hardest balls he's ever hit were both in the past week as were 5 of the hardest 8 balls he's ever hit. I want to see where that's heading. Likewise, his chase rate has been on a steady downward trend since the beginning of May. He'll never be a plate discipline guy but it's possible he won't be an auto-out against a slider in the other batter's box. He's also showing reverse splits which I find interesting — I tend to think if a righty is hitting righties, that's hard to teach. But you can teach him to hit lefties. I see Lenyn as a guy who may be a bench/utility guy in the long run but has a little bit of upside, especially because of the power he's flashing. He's not going to win a gold glove, he's never going to run a high OBP, so those will hold him back somewhat. Still 25 years old and 4 more years until free agency.

I'm no longer putting Brooks Baldwin into the core conversation. I'm starting to see him increasingly as someone with bench/utility upside instead of downside. Not writing him off yet and I'm open to him getting everyday reps if/when the Sox move LouBob and Tauchman. I don't know whether he has a defensive position. I'm supportive of the Sox's plan to give him a chance in the outfield but as we saw last night it has not yet borne fruit. It's not totally fair to Brooks who entered the year with little experience there, but then again he looked like dog water playing the infield this year. He has a Sosa-like propensity for boneheaded mistakes on defense and they were happening at a high frequency when he was in the infield. He runs well enough that he's made some plays that some of our other outfielders just can't make. In fact, I think the ball he dropped last night is one that e.g. Benintendi doesn't even attempt to catch. On the other side of the ball, I don't think he gives us much to dream on as a hitter. He has big problems with velocity, whiffing at double the league average rate on 95+ heaters. You don't have to watch closely to see he chases those pitches helplessly. His contact ability besides that is fine but not superlative. His propensity to chase is not overall very high but in two-strike counts it is astronomical with predictable results. His stats looked good in AAA after his demotion but Statcast points to it being substantially luck-based. I'll credit him for showing a little pop as a lefty hitter, having athleticism in general, and still being quite inexperienced so there's a chance he makes some of the very difficult adjustments that he needs to. 

Overall, I feel decently okay about the offensive core. There is a lack of star power. Maybe Braden Montgomery ends up providing it. Or, much later, Billy Carlson. Or someone else pushes beyond what we thought their abilities were. More problematic for me is it's really not very clear who the next wave is. All the guys who are "close" are in Chicago right now. The cohort that might have included the likes of Jacob Gonzalez, Bryan Ramos, Wilfred Veras maybe...just isn't materializing. The group of kids in A/A+ look interesting but they are obviously further off — debuting mid-2026 in the absolute most optimistic cases and more likely 2027+. It makes me feel like this deadline is sneaky important because even if you aren't getting that star power (IDK how you would), you want to get more Chase Meidroths, Lenyn Sosas, Brooks Baldwins. It's either that or you start finding some hidden gems in major league free agent market or the trade scrap heaps. Eugenio Suarez was free to a good home a couple years ago. Ryan O'Hearn has been on and off waivers a number of times. Brent Rooker was a waiver claim. You want to hit on a couple guys like that if you don't want to win the next Harper-esque bidding war — in fact, hitting on a Rooker type is often a pre-condition for swimming in those deep waters.  

On the pitching side, IDK. I like Grant Taylor but I'm not putting a reliever in my core. I think that out of Cannon, Davis, Burke, Thorpe, Shane Smith, Vasil, Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith, Christian Oppor, Tanner McDougal, ..., others...you probably can find a usable rotation in there that doesn't require too terribly much outside investment. I have no idea how many of those guys will still be hanging around a couple years from now and pitching well nor do I know which it will be. Pitchers have a bad habit of suffering 18 month injuries. And a bad habit of being bad. 

Some great stuff with Monty that I agree with in the short term, but some guys just look like major leaguers and look to belong. PCA's success while leading baseball in chase also is a case I love because its unorthodox profile of success. Colson chase numbers have been pretty solid, so he could succeed running lower contact rates. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I think Baldwin and Meidroth have some defensive flexibility and some room to grow there, and we all know you can hold on forever in MLB if you can play some defense and multiple positions.

Of guys with 250 PA's, Meidroth has the fourth lowest ISO. Guys who do that, don't usually survive for long. Nicky Lopez only guy that has been that low and gotten multiple opportunities. 

[caulfield12]

Is "decently okay" in the lineup and future rotation good enough for the AL Central?

Seems Ishbia is the only one who can truly change the narrative here.

[southsider2k5]

20 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Of guys with 250 PA's, Meidroth has the fourth lowest ISO. Guys who do that, don't usually survive for long. Nicky Lopez only guy that has been that low and gotten multiple opportunities. 

Just looking at our roster this year, he was ahead of Capra and Amaya, and not much behind Rojas.  I am not saying  if this is finished player status, that he is a starter, but he can hang around the rosters of a lot of teams with some defense, even if the bat doesn't improve.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Of guys with 250 PA's, Meidroth has the fourth lowest ISO. Guys who do that, don't usually survive for long. Nicky Lopez only guy that has been that low and gotten multiple opportunities. 

These are his first 250 PA’s.  I know you’re not doing this, but I can’t stress enough none of these guys are finished projects.  Half the fun of this exercise is projecting out what you think will happen with these guys in the future. I am very confident that Meidroth’s ISO will increase significantly from the .055 we are seeing so far.  Will it ever be good or even league average…probably not, but the dude squares up the ball at the most elite level in the game and will eventually get the most out of the little raw power he has.

[tray]

My own opinion is from watching a lot of games this year and many years past. So I prefer Vargas at third where he has made numerous outstanding plays. I would put Sosa at 1B unless a better hitter becomes available. The thing is that Sosa hits the ball hard and is a clutch hitter so IMO he needs to be somewhere in the line-up. Baldwin is a butcher in the outfield and is an easy strike-out for any pitcher who has read his scouting report. I guess the Sox do not have many alternatives so let Baldwin take some vicious cuts in case he runs into one.

Edited July 25 by tray

[chitownsportsfan]

1 hour ago, tray said:

My own opinion is from watching a lot of games this year and many years past. So I prefer Vargas at third where he has made numerous outstanding plays. I would put Sosa at 1B unless a better hitter becomes available. The thing is that Sosa hits the ball hard and is a clutch hitter so IMO he needs to be somewhere in the line-up. Baldwin is a butcher in the outfield and is an easy strike-out for any pitcher who has read his scouting report. I guess the Sox do not have many alternatives so let Baldwin take some vicious cuts in case he runs into one.

I like that Sosa has a contact oriented approach but he's a man without a position. Could just be a good utility guy long term. His defense at 2B is pretty brutal imo.

Vargas seemed to slump a bit at 3B but it was probably just because they decided to start him playing at 1B so often. Another puzzling decision.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, tray said:

My own opinion is from watching a lot of games this year and many years past. So I prefer Vargas at third where he has made numerous outstanding plays. I would put Sosa at 1B unless a better hitter becomes available. The thing is that Sosa hits the ball hard and is a clutch hitter so IMO he needs to be somewhere in the line-up. Baldwin is a butcher in the outfield and is an easy strike-out for any pitcher who has read his scouting report. I guess the Sox do not have many alternatives so let Baldwin take some vicious cuts in case he runs into one.

Weird stat…fgraphs has him offering more value on defense than offense, although both are negative, while he grades out overall as a net 0.7 positive and worth $6.0 million in salary.

[chitownsportsfan]

Looking at Colson's numbers in every way, granted in a very small sample, the one thing he's improved immensely is his popout rate. He had an absurd popout rate in AAA, 32.3%! So far it's at 7.8% in MLB. He's also cut his K rate down to 26% from 33%. Still too high ideally but with his swing speed it might just always be the case. His keys are launch angle and when he runs into them run into them -- like he did last night. His pull rate (44%) is solid, and he's hitting more balls up the middle so far as a MLB (33%) than he did in the minors at any stop. 

You'd like to think he's learning when to sell out and when to try and poke one through, with his levers it doesn't take too much.

[Falstaff]

Possible future infield :

Teel  1st

Meidroth 2nd

Carlson SS

Montgomery 3rd

Q C