Can the this team be competitive in 2026?

[southsider2k5]

26 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I like things about all of them, but if we’re being honest, the median outcome for each of them is a #4

For Burke and Kay I think their ceilings are #4's.  Thorpe obviously has a weirdly high ceiling, but he HAS to be pinpoint in his control for it to happen, and so far he hadn't been able to do that.  Add to that this being his first full year off of TJS, and I wouldn't look for much from him at least this year.

[almagest]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You're much higher on them than me/baseball then IMO. The median 3 year outcome for all of those pitchers is being out of MLB baseball.

Kay has literally already been out of MLB. Thorpe had a very very thin line with his velocity. He has an elite pitch though, so maybe he has a shot to stick in the pen.

Burke doesn't fool anyone.

Burke was about a league average pitcher last year, but his Baseball Savant page is pretty mediocre - only his extension measures as a plus. He's average to below average in everything else. He's probably a #4, #5 or long reliever best case, unless he suddenly adds a great pitch or adds 3-4 mph on his average fastball.

I think people are hopeful Kay can continue the Fedde type success, but I'd guess he'll be closer to what Fedde is now (i.e. a 5.something FIP). If we can catch some lightning in the bottle due to lack of familiarity with his pitch changes and turn him into a prospect or two at the deadline I think that's best case scenario. Doubt most teams are going to fall for that though. Maybe he'll turn into a decent bullpen option.

Thorpe I have more hope for, as he absolutely dominated the minor leagues. Yeah, the list of guys who washed out/went to the bullpen with stellar MiLB numbers is long, but I think it's worth giving him some time to see if that changeup can carry the rest of his stuff, and what stuff improvements he can make (if any). I would agree that 2026 is likely not good for him, though.

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm happy to get into why each guy is not a viable MLB starter (Kay has that veil of mystery at least... I guess), starting with Burke but when I'm not on mobile. I had some optimism about Burke entering last year, saw his first few starters and did a complete 180. Rest of the year wasn't any better.

Rest of year wasn’t any better for Burke vs. his first few starts?

• First 10: 6.19 K/9 | 5.06 BB/9 | 1.69 HR/9 | 6.14 FIP
• Middle 8: 8.59 K/9 | 2.86 BB/9 | 1.43 HR/9 | 4.32 FIP
• Last 10: 12.33 K/9 | 4.68 BB/9 | 1.49 K/9 | 4.17 FIP

He flashed much better control during his middle eights starts along with a better K rate and then really ramped the K rate down the stretch.  While the consistency wasn’t there, he flashed significant improvement as the year progressed.  I really have no idea what you are talking about in regard to him.

I have no idea what Kay is or will be, but he’s a mystery box that Bannister had a lot to do with and hopefully that means he won’t stink at minimum.  Anyone saying otherwise without having scouted him in Japan is legit full of s%*#.

The Thorpe hate is just straight bizarre to me.  People on this site have basically declared he sucks because of lacking 4 seamer velocity and a couple of bad starts during his initial cup of coffee when he was clearly injured.  Regardless, this is a kid with a 70 grade change up and 70 grade command who generated extremely weak contact in the minors.  If his velocity jumps up a tick post TJS, this is a kid I believe can become a quality #3 starter.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

I like things about all of them, but if we’re being honest, the median outcome for each of them is a #4

Median outcome may be #4 starters, but I think both Thorpe & Burke have higher ceilings than that.  I can’t really comment on Kay, but regardless, my main point is it’s ridiculous to say these guys all “stink”.

[Chicago White Sox]

44 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You're much higher on them than me/baseball then IMO. The median 3 year outcome for all of those pitchers is being out of MLB baseball.

Kay has literally already been out of MLB. Thorpe had a very very thin line with his velocity. He has an elite pitch though, so maybe he has a shot to stick in the pen.

Burke doesn't fool anyone.

 What in the f***?  Thorpe was a consensus top 70 prospect prior to TJS.  And Burke struck out over 12 per 9 in final 10 appearances last year.  Apparently he was fooling plenty of people during that stretch.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Rest of year wasn’t any better for Burke vs. his first few starts?

• First 10: 6.19 K/9 | 5.06 BB/9 | 1.69 HR/9 | 6.14 FIP
• Middle 8: 8.59 K/9 | 2.86 BB/9 | 1.43 HR/9 | 4.32 FIP
• Last 10: 12.33 K/9 | 4.68 BB/9 | 1.49 K/9 | 4.17 FIP

He flashed much better control during his middle eights starts along with a better K rate and then really ramped the K rate down the stretch.  While the consistency wasn’t there, he flashed significant improvement as the year progressed.  I really have no idea what you are talking about in regard to him.

I have no idea what Kay is or will be, but he’s a mystery box that Bannister had a lot to do with and hopefully that means he won’t stink at minimum.  Anyone saying otherwise without having scouted him in Japan is legit full of s%*#.

The Thorpe hate is just straight bizarre to me.  People on this site have basically declared he sucks because of lacking 4 seamer velocity and a couple of bad starts during his initial cup of coffee when he was clearly injured.  Regardless, this is a kid with a 70 grade change up and 70 grade command who generated extremely weak contact in the minors.  If his velocity jumps up a tick post TJS, this is a kid I believe can become a quality #3 starter.

Getting past the ridiculous "hate" speech, again if you are looking at 2026, stuff doesn't typically fully come back until the year after a pitchers return from TJS, which makes that 2027, and for many it never comes back fully.  Again the window of being good in MLB is so narrow when you don't have a plus fastball, and Thorpe is way below average in terms of velocity.  His control has to be about perfect, and it wasn't while he was here, even before his injury, that is unless the Sox pitched him nine game with an injured ligament, because his stuff is pretty narrowly consistent across his starts.  Dude has some of the best velocity of this season on his cutter and change in his last start.  His 4 seamer was in the upper middle of his starts, and his slider was also in the middle of his velocities.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

37 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Rest of year wasn’t any better for Burke vs. his first few starts?

• First 10: 6.19 K/9 | 5.06 BB/9 | 1.69 HR/9 | 6.14 FIP
• Middle 8: 8.59 K/9 | 2.86 BB/9 | 1.43 HR/9 | 4.32 FIP
• Last 10: 12.33 K/9 | 4.68 BB/9 | 1.49 K/9 | 4.17 FIP

He flashed much better control during his middle eights starts along with a better K rate and then really ramped the K rate down the stretch.  While the consistency wasn’t there, he flashed significant improvement as the year progressed.  I really have no idea what you are talking about in regard to him.

I have no idea what Kay is or will be, but he’s a mystery box that Bannister had a lot to do with and hopefully that means he won’t stink at minimum.  Anyone saying otherwise without having scouted him in Japan is legit full of s%*#.

The Thorpe hate is just straight bizarre to me.  People on this site have basically declared he sucks because of lacking 4 seamer velocity and a couple of bad starts during his initial cup of coffee when he was clearly injured.  Regardless, this is a kid with a 70 grade change up and 70 grade command who generated extremely weak contact in the minors.  If his velocity jumps up a tick post TJS, this is a kid I believe can become a quality #3 starter.

Im glad you use stats in your arguments. I'm weary of the haters usuall eye test BS generalitites and ghosts of White Sox past to extol predictions of woe.

You ask for context, examples, stats, or reasons and you get "I dont need no stinking context" .

[GreenSox]

It’s possible. The Pythagorean last year was about 70 wins and teams just sometimes come together.
But they should absolutely not force it. There are some moves that could move them many steps forward that  might hurt the immediate W/L.  The priority for Taylor, for example, should be for him to dominate and then trade him for a Mason Miller type of deal given that they don’t want to start him.

I am surprised that they are not putting Vasil in the rotation this year. But I’m not sure it’s precluded  for the long-term so we’ll see.
 

[Reyno45]

I think they’ll be competitive but their pitching staff leaves so much to be desired. I would really like it if they kicked the tires on Imai. They need more, I’m just not a fan of their pitching staff 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Burke cant get through a lineup twice consistently. That's pretty important for a starter. 

League average? Of 87 starters who threw 130+ innings last year, Burke ranked 81st.

[WhiteSox2023]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Median outcome may be #4 starters, but I think both Thorpe & Burke have higher ceilings than that.  I can’t really comment on Kay, but regardless, my main point is it’s ridiculous to say these guys all “stink”.

They could all struggle just as easily as excel next season.

[caulfield12]

53 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

It’s possible. The Pythagorean last year was about 70 wins and teams just sometimes come together.
But they should absolutely not force it. There are some moves that could move them many steps forward that  might hurt the immediate W/L.  The priority for Taylor, for example, should be for him to dominate and then trade him for a Mason Miller type of deal given that they don’t want to start him.

I am surprised that they are not putting Vasil in the rotation this year. But I’m not sure it’s precluded  for the long-term so we’ll see.
 

Miller cost the #1/2 prospect in all of baseball, though.

No way they can afford to trade away their #1 pick next summer.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Im glad you use stats in your arguments. I'm weary of the haters usuall eye test BS generalitites and ghosts of White Sox past to extol predictions of woe.

You ask for context, examples, stats, or reasons and you get "I dont need no stinking context" .

For the last 4-5 days, we have seen a mountain of statistical evidence presented by basically every expert and analyst about why Murakami MIGHT fail.

In all likelihood, if the Rays Guardians Brewers announced this deal, everyone would probably be calling them geniuses.

So hopefully, Getz and Rodriguez are right on this call.

That said, the first $100+ million free agent in Sox history and next year's draft will be exponentially more important for the future of the franchise.

 

This was almost more of a marketing gimmick...one Sox fans haven't seen since Albert Belle was signed.

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/whats-next-how-will-npb-star-munetaka-murakamis-power-translate-white-sox-mlb&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwjqz9_WwtKRAxUhHjQIHRb5ABUQ0PADegQICBAD&usg=AOvVaw3Va1kqD_-u41gpGsudJkX6

Edited 12 hours ago by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

 

Top 30 mlb hats in Japan

Yankees Dodgers Padres White Sox Red Sox

Tigers Mets Braves A's Giants

Mariners (former team of Japan) Blue Jays Phillies Astros Nats

Cubs Angels (was near top with Ohtani) Rangers

 

Five West Coast teams in Top 11 (tv times much better aligned)

No Cubs near top

Old English dark classics  NYY CHW DET

Edited 11 hours ago by caulfield12

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Im glad you use stats in your arguments. I'm weary of the haters usuall eye test BS generalitites and ghosts of White Sox past to extol predictions of woe.

You ask for context, examples, stats, or reasons and you get "I dont need no stinking context" .

Burke was in the 11th percentile in pitching run value. 25th in fastball run value (his best pitch), 4th in off speed run value. Walk rate was in the 15th percentile and barrel rate the 17th. 

Fastball ranks in the bottom 15% in multiple metrics available (stuff+, value added). After the first time through the order, the league had an 813 ops and he had a 4.81 era. Compare that to the first time through where Burke allows a 737 ops with a 3.4 era. Worst though, his first time through he struck out 66 guys in 252 batters faced. The second+ time, he only struck out 67 guys in 344 batters faced. That was with some good batted ball luck too the second time through which is pretty crazy to think about. 

Burke stinks. I hate breaking seasons up and finding good periods. It exists with every pitcher in the game. You are the culmination of your stuff throughout a season. His stuff stinks, and he stinks. When I use that word I mean relative to the rest of the actual mlb starters. 

[zisk]

would be great if Sox play .500 after the all star break.

[Bob Sacamano]

31 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Burke was in the 11th percentile in pitching run value. 25th in fastball run value (his best pitch), 4th in off speed run value. Walk rate was in the 15th percentile and barrel rate the 17th. 

Fastball ranks in the bottom 15% in multiple metrics available (stuff+, value added). After the first time through the order, the league had an 813 ops and he had a 4.81 era. Compare that to the first time through where Burke allows a 737 ops with a 3.4 era. Worst though, his first time through he struck out 66 guys in 252 batters faced. The second+ time, he only struck out 67 guys in 344 batters faced. That was with some good batted ball luck too the second time through which is pretty crazy to think about. 

Burke stinks. I hate breaking seasons up and finding good periods. It exists with every pitcher in the game. You are the culmination of your stuff throughout a season. His stuff stinks, and he stinks. When I use that word I mean relative to the rest of the actual mlb starters. 

I’ve got newborn dad brain going so too lazy and tired to do it myself. Do Jonathan Cannon and Davis Martin next lol

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Burke was in the 11th percentile in pitching run value. 25th in fastball run value (his best pitch), 4th in off speed run value. Walk rate was in the 15th percentile and barrel rate the 17th. 

Fastball ranks in the bottom 15% in multiple metrics available (stuff+, value added). After the first time through the order, the league had an 813 ops and he had a 4.81 era. Compare that to the first time through where Burke allows a 737 ops with a 3.4 era. Worst though, his first time through he struck out 66 guys in 252 batters faced. The second+ time, he only struck out 67 guys in 344 batters faced. That was with some good batted ball luck too the second time through which is pretty crazy to think about. 

Burke stinks. I hate breaking seasons up and finding good periods. It exists with every pitcher in the game. You are the culmination of your stuff throughout a season. His stuff stinks, and he stinks. When I use that word I mean relative to the rest of the actual mlb starters. 

lol…you hate breaking up seasons of rookies?  Yes, let’s pretend that development is linear and only full season metrics matter for first year players.  The best part is you said that you watched his first handful and that he didn’t get better, which is objectively not true.

[SoxBlanco]

3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Burke was in the 11th percentile in pitching run value. 25th in fastball run value (his best pitch), 4th in off speed run value. Walk rate was in the 15th percentile and barrel rate the 17th. 

Fastball ranks in the bottom 15% in multiple metrics available (stuff+, value added). After the first time through the order, the league had an 813 ops and he had a 4.81 era. Compare that to the first time through where Burke allows a 737 ops with a 3.4 era. Worst though, his first time through he struck out 66 guys in 252 batters faced. The second+ time, he only struck out 67 guys in 344 batters faced. That was with some good batted ball luck too the second time through which is pretty crazy to think about. 

Burke stinks. I hate breaking seasons up and finding good periods. It exists with every pitcher in the game. You are the culmination of your stuff throughout a season. His stuff stinks, and he stinks. When I use that word I mean relative to the rest of the actual mlb starters. 

You know much more about advanced stats than I do, so I have some questions for you. I’m curious how much the run value stats you cited predict future success. I’m also curious if they are more results based like ERA, or if they are more like FIP?

I decided to look at Cannon’s page. In 2024, he was in the 47th percentile in fastball run value. In 2025, he was in the 3rd percentile of fastball run value. So did his fastball get that much worse? Or is there some luck involved there?

I then wanted to look at an elite pitcher. I chose Tarik Skubal. In 2021 (his first full season), he was in the 20th percentile in pitching run value. Then he jumped to 78th in 2022, 93rd in 2023, and 100th in 2024 and 2025. Is that kind of jump after a rookie season extremely rare?

[caulfield12]

 

[nrockway]

Burke has crazy stuff. He just does. Can he locate it consistently? Not so far. 

[greg775]

With Colson, this new guy, Beni and the high on base second baseman whose name i forgot as well as our catcher who can hit ... do some tinkering with 50 million dollars, get us another bat and 2 average veteran starters and let's go.

We can beat Minnie and Detroit with our eyes closed and KC is no good.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

You know much more about advanced stats than I do, so I have some questions for you. I’m curious how much the run value stats you cited predict future success. I’m also curious if they are more results based like ERA, or if they are more like FIP?

I decided to look at Cannon’s page. In 2024, he was in the 47th percentile in fastball run value. In 2025, he was in the 3rd percentile of fastball run value. So did his fastball get that much worse? Or is there some luck involved there?

I then wanted to look at an elite pitcher. I chose Tarik Skubal. In 2021 (his first full season), he was in the 20th percentile in pitching run value. Then he jumped to 78th in 2022, 93rd in 2023, and 100th in 2024 and 2025. Is that kind of jump after a rookie season extremely rare?

Yeah, I was actually pretty optimistic about cannon and still think be may be able to move to the pen because his sinker had been effective until last year. It took a huge step back last year though, and it's possible the league just figured it out.

Skubal was very mediocre when he first came up. Before the injury he only threw 94 mph. When he came back he was throwing 96 mph. That 2 mph took a medicore fastball and made it a good one.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

lol…you hate breaking up seasons of rookies?  Yes, let’s pretend that development is linear and only full season metrics matter for first year players.  The best part is you said that you watched his first handful and that he didn’t get better, which is objectively not true.

The problem is you're claiming ebbs and flows in performance are driven by development and not standard performance distributions. 

In his final 10 appearances, he faced Cleveland twice, the Royals once, the angels once, the Nats once, and Baltimore. That's 5 of the bottom 8 offenses in MLB last year. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 hours ago, nrockway said:

Burke has crazy stuff. He just does. Can he locate it consistently? Not so far. 

The only thing that finished + for him from a pitching grade last year was location. His command was above league average, even with the high walk rate. Problem is he picks around the edges because his stuff isn't good enough.